| No deal Brexit 08:51 - Aug 11 with 15444 views | Herbivore |
In recent days there have been a number of stories coming out about a no deal Brexit.
We’ve had Matt Hancock — now fervent no deal backer — refusing to rule out that a no deal Brexit could lead to deaths of patients due to medication shortages. He has spoken about millions of pounds being spent on trying to prevent this whilst describing no deal as “not pretty”. (Source — The Evening Standard)
We’ve had Christopher Hope, another ardent Brexiteer, explaining how we can airlift in essentials like food and medication in the event of a no deal Brexit. That’s right, the 5th largest economy in the world can airlift in humanitarian aid for itself in the event of a no deal Brexit. The cabinet are also reported to have accepted that food prices will increase post-Brexit and this will have an impact for at least a decade. (Source — The Telegraph)
We’ve had a government leak telling us that we cannot maintain the integrity of our waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. (Source — The BBC)
We’ve had the treasury telling us that they will be setting up a “bail out fund” to prevent businesses from going bust in the event of a no deal Brexit. That’s millions if not billions of pounds of public money that is going to be used to prop up businesses that would otherwise fail because of a no deal Brexit. (Source — Various news outlets)
Now, these aren’t ‘project fear’ scare stories from ‘Remoaners’. These are coming from those who either support Brexit, are charged with preparing for no deal Brexit, or most often both. Nobody — aside from perhaps Boris — is even trying to pretend anymore that a no deal Brexit will lead us to the ‘sunlit uplands’. They are open about the fact that it will harm businesses and the economy and that it will lead to shortages of food and medication. It will make things more expensive for the public. We risk inflation going through the roof. On top of that we also know:
A no deal Brexit poses an existential threat to the United Kingdom. In the event of no deal, Scotland will agitate to leave the UK and it seems more likely than not that they will leave. Northern Ireland will be plunged into deep uncertainty.
No deal Brexit also puts us back to square one in negotiating future trade with the EU, but it puts us in a position of weakness in doing so because (a) we will be desperate for a deal, and (b) negotiations will likely take place in an atmosphere of mistrust and bad faith given how the government has conducted itself over Brexit thus far.
Furthermore, the US has ruled out a trade deal with the UK being ratified if the UK does anything to jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement. A no deal Brexit, which will necessitate border checks on the island of Ireland, will necessarily act as a threat to the Good Friday Agreement and that scuppers us doing a trade deal with the US.
Other major countries will be reluctant to do trade deals with us for two reasons. Firstly, we’ve already said we intend to offer tariff-free access for 90%+ of goods and services following a no deal Brexit, so there is no incentive to do a free trade deal with us. Secondly, any major economy will want to know what our trading relationship with the EU will look like before committing to a deal. They will want to know how easily a deal with us will improve or hinder access to our biggest trading partner in the EU.
We also know that Brexit has cost and will continue to cost billions in terms of money spent to mitigate its impact and in terms of the ongoing hit on the economy.
I know that there are some on here who are very keen on a no deal Brexit and see this as their preferred option. Given all of the above I am genuinely curious as to what the rational basis is for your support of a no deal Brexit. What do you see as the short- and long-term benefits that will outweigh all of the above? Do you feel that potential deaths, food and medication shortages, the break up of the UK, the economy struggling, things becoming more expensive, billions being spent on avoiding disaster rather than making the country better etc. is a price worth paying to leave the EU at all costs? If so, how do you justify that?
[Post edited 11 Aug 2019 9:10]
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| No deal Brexit on 21:58 - Aug 11 with 3498 views | footers |
| No deal Brexit on 21:51 - Aug 11 by pennblue |
If we want control over immigration then we really have no choice but no deal do we?
The Withdrawal agreement can’t get through parliament and the EU won’t renegotiate.
What is the alternative?
My personal view is that whilst it will be disruptive in the short term, countries will want to trade with us so deals will get done quickly after we leave.
I think the U.S will do a trade deal and will be an ok one. Trump likes the UK and wants to be liked here.
I suspect we will tweak rules and taxes to make us very attractive to invest in.
I also think the country has been in demise for some time and it will give us a kick up the arse to start thinking more strategically. |
"If we want control over immigration then we really have no choice but no deal do we? "
We could have tighter controls on immigration and still be a member state of the EU. That successive governments chose not to do this explains half the problem.
The fact that people think we have to leave in order to control migration explains the other half.
Edit: I didn't do justice to the rest of your argument as regards Trumpy wumpy's feelings and a US-UK trade deal. Squit is the best I can do, apologies. [Post edited 11 Aug 2019 22:04]
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| No deal Brexit on 22:07 - Aug 11 with 3478 views | Pinewoodblue |
| No deal Brexit on 21:58 - Aug 11 by footers |
"If we want control over immigration then we really have no choice but no deal do we? "
We could have tighter controls on immigration and still be a member state of the EU. That successive governments chose not to do this explains half the problem.
The fact that people think we have to leave in order to control migration explains the other half.
Edit: I didn't do justice to the rest of your argument as regards Trumpy wumpy's feelings and a US-UK trade deal. Squit is the best I can do, apologies. [Post edited 11 Aug 2019 22:04]
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you could have added that the fall in the value of £ already makes British companies ripe for takeover. |  |
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| No deal Brexit on 22:08 - Aug 11 with 3477 views | pennblue |
| No deal Brexit on 21:58 - Aug 11 by footers |
"If we want control over immigration then we really have no choice but no deal do we? "
We could have tighter controls on immigration and still be a member state of the EU. That successive governments chose not to do this explains half the problem.
The fact that people think we have to leave in order to control migration explains the other half.
Edit: I didn't do justice to the rest of your argument as regards Trumpy wumpy's feelings and a US-UK trade deal. Squit is the best I can do, apologies. [Post edited 11 Aug 2019 22:04]
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How do we control immigration if freedom of movement is one of the four tenants of EU membership?
Didn’t Cameron try and failed to get changes? |  |
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| No deal Brexit on 22:11 - Aug 11 with 3470 views | footers |
| No deal Brexit on 22:08 - Aug 11 by pennblue |
How do we control immigration if freedom of movement is one of the four tenants of EU membership?
Didn’t Cameron try and failed to get changes? |
Ask the member states that control migration.
This is why asking the general public is a bad idea. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 22:12 - Aug 11 with 3466 views | footers |
| No deal Brexit on 22:07 - Aug 11 by Pinewoodblue |
you could have added that the fall in the value of £ already makes British companies ripe for takeover. |
Vultures are circling. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 22:21 - Aug 11 with 3447 views | Pinewoodblue |
| No deal Brexit on 22:12 - Aug 11 by footers |
Vultures are circling. |
Asset strippers. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 22:41 - Aug 11 with 3432 views | Melford |
It's the rise of the Bastards. Saw off Heath, saw off Maggie
"splits over Europe which cemented Thatcher's downfall, with Geoffrey Howe's resignation helping to topple the leader"
John Major's Bastards "JOHN MAJOR's leadership was plunged into a new crisis last night after claims that he described three Eurosceptic Cabinet colleagues as 'bastards' in comments accidentally recorded after a television interview.
The remarks, which were not broadcast but have gained circulation among broadcast journalists, are likely to enrage the right of the Conservative Party when Mr Major had promised a truce with Maastricht rebels.
They didn't get the chance to get their feet under the table again until 2015 and they carry on again like they had never been away, the 1922 Committee having more of a say in Government and keeping the Tory Party on side and in front ahead of anything else, including the rest of the country. It's like Thatcher shutting the pits and steelworks and making places an economic wasteland, they stick to this political dogma knowing that people will suffer because of it but they really don't give a ***k about us. |  |
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| No deal Brexit on 23:09 - Aug 11 with 3413 views | Churchman |
Most of this excellent post is correct. I say most because a high percentage of what is being written in the media about such things as preparations and impact are stories based on morsels of information, lies or interpretations. I know this to be true. It won’t be armageddon, nor will it be beneficial for anyone for a generation - apart from currency speculators and very rich people, oddly enough including the ERG.
The reality is that the referendum was mad and leaving with no deal is totally mad. But the ERG who are the government now don’t care. Cameron could easily have avoided it but in his grotesque arrogance he got it all wrong. If he had asked people to research the potential impact of Brexit on the UK and Europe before he grovelled to them and before the referendum, he would have been in a far stronger position to negotiate. If they’d have kicked his backside out of the door (which they did anyway) he could then have had his referendum and presented reasoned options / arguments to the electorate against lies written on a bus. Even if leave had still won, May would still have been better informed before triggering article 50 and going up against the EU. She certainly could not have secured a worse deal then the one she agreed. It is appalling.
My opinion is that the government should ratify no deal leave or accept remain with another referendum. It is asking the people based on what is known, not rhetoric. It’s their only way out. Without it, I think the result of the recent handover of power to the ruling extremist ERG will be a constitutional crisis in a couple of months time. The ERG will try to force no deal through against the will of Parliament and probably the majority of the people. If they do this and try to present it in an election as some sort of ‘people verses parliament’ nonsense, there will be parliamentary mayhem not seen for centuries. It’ll be the end of the tories possibly forever (phew), the UK as an entity and will open the door to another load of extremists in Momentum and England, like Scotland will become an impoverished one party state.
The first paragraph I know is true, the second is well reasoned and based on an FT article a few months ago. The last paragraph is my biggest fear. |  | | |
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| No deal Brexit on 23:44 - Aug 11 with 3359 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| No deal Brexit on 23:09 - Aug 11 by Churchman |
Most of this excellent post is correct. I say most because a high percentage of what is being written in the media about such things as preparations and impact are stories based on morsels of information, lies or interpretations. I know this to be true. It won’t be armageddon, nor will it be beneficial for anyone for a generation - apart from currency speculators and very rich people, oddly enough including the ERG.
The reality is that the referendum was mad and leaving with no deal is totally mad. But the ERG who are the government now don’t care. Cameron could easily have avoided it but in his grotesque arrogance he got it all wrong. If he had asked people to research the potential impact of Brexit on the UK and Europe before he grovelled to them and before the referendum, he would have been in a far stronger position to negotiate. If they’d have kicked his backside out of the door (which they did anyway) he could then have had his referendum and presented reasoned options / arguments to the electorate against lies written on a bus. Even if leave had still won, May would still have been better informed before triggering article 50 and going up against the EU. She certainly could not have secured a worse deal then the one she agreed. It is appalling.
My opinion is that the government should ratify no deal leave or accept remain with another referendum. It is asking the people based on what is known, not rhetoric. It’s their only way out. Without it, I think the result of the recent handover of power to the ruling extremist ERG will be a constitutional crisis in a couple of months time. The ERG will try to force no deal through against the will of Parliament and probably the majority of the people. If they do this and try to present it in an election as some sort of ‘people verses parliament’ nonsense, there will be parliamentary mayhem not seen for centuries. It’ll be the end of the tories possibly forever (phew), the UK as an entity and will open the door to another load of extremists in Momentum and England, like Scotland will become an impoverished one party state.
The first paragraph I know is true, the second is well reasoned and based on an FT article a few months ago. The last paragraph is my biggest fear. |
Have an uppie for paras 1 and 2. My fear is that in a people v parliament election the ERG Tories ride a populist wave to victory what with the opposition being nasty anti semites etc.....interesting few months ahead! |  |
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| No deal Brexit on 23:44 - Aug 11 with 3358 views | Kievthegreat |
| No deal Brexit on 22:07 - Aug 11 by Pinewoodblue |
you could have added that the fall in the value of £ already makes British companies ripe for takeover. |
You wait until the market bottoms out before you get your bargain. |  | | |
| No deal Brexit on 23:48 - Aug 11 with 3354 views | MVBlue |
| No deal Brexit on 23:09 - Aug 11 by Churchman |
Most of this excellent post is correct. I say most because a high percentage of what is being written in the media about such things as preparations and impact are stories based on morsels of information, lies or interpretations. I know this to be true. It won’t be armageddon, nor will it be beneficial for anyone for a generation - apart from currency speculators and very rich people, oddly enough including the ERG.
The reality is that the referendum was mad and leaving with no deal is totally mad. But the ERG who are the government now don’t care. Cameron could easily have avoided it but in his grotesque arrogance he got it all wrong. If he had asked people to research the potential impact of Brexit on the UK and Europe before he grovelled to them and before the referendum, he would have been in a far stronger position to negotiate. If they’d have kicked his backside out of the door (which they did anyway) he could then have had his referendum and presented reasoned options / arguments to the electorate against lies written on a bus. Even if leave had still won, May would still have been better informed before triggering article 50 and going up against the EU. She certainly could not have secured a worse deal then the one she agreed. It is appalling.
My opinion is that the government should ratify no deal leave or accept remain with another referendum. It is asking the people based on what is known, not rhetoric. It’s their only way out. Without it, I think the result of the recent handover of power to the ruling extremist ERG will be a constitutional crisis in a couple of months time. The ERG will try to force no deal through against the will of Parliament and probably the majority of the people. If they do this and try to present it in an election as some sort of ‘people verses parliament’ nonsense, there will be parliamentary mayhem not seen for centuries. It’ll be the end of the tories possibly forever (phew), the UK as an entity and will open the door to another load of extremists in Momentum and England, like Scotland will become an impoverished one party state.
The first paragraph I know is true, the second is well reasoned and based on an FT article a few months ago. The last paragraph is my biggest fear. |
Cameron promised the referendum and Tories won 2015 majority only for that reason.l
You seem like a sensible lot , any recommendations, serious only, for what preperations as individuals we should make for the Boris No deal? Stock up on pasta and pizza? Put money in Euros or swiss franc? Pay down debt? Buy BTC?
Its crazy how sensible British people are spectators to Tory ERG and Farage Change plus Corbyns dalliances, our country being pushed to a poorer state and likely break up. I think farmers, wealthy folk and senior citizens simply think they've seen it all before with Lamonts 90s crash, early 80s huge bank base rate, 70s oil crisis etc. And with their rose tinted specs think we'll muddle through.
Im sure a better deal on immigration would sort it out, we certainly need a deal. [Post edited 11 Aug 2019 23:53]
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| No deal Brexit on 08:45 - Aug 12 with 3274 views | No9 |
| No deal Brexit on 22:08 - Aug 11 by pennblue |
How do we control immigration if freedom of movement is one of the four tenants of EU membership?
Didn’t Cameron try and failed to get changes? |
Some of the changes Cameron wanted were incorporated
The EU courts are witness to that
Just never reported in the UK media and he never told parliament
somethings never change | | | |
| No deal Brexit on 09:26 - Aug 12 with 3247 views | pennblue |
under European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC, which allows EU member states to repatriate EU nationals after three months if they have not found a job or do not have the means to support themselves.
This is not really having control over our immigration system is it?
I sense the waves of people fearful of a no deal brexit but the immigration issue is the crux of the issue. People are not up for living in a highly diverse society, London based blues are entirely used to it, but other parts of the country are not up for it. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 09:28 - Aug 12 with 3242 views | Herbivore |
| No deal Brexit on 09:26 - Aug 12 by pennblue |
under European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC, which allows EU member states to repatriate EU nationals after three months if they have not found a job or do not have the means to support themselves.
This is not really having control over our immigration system is it?
I sense the waves of people fearful of a no deal brexit but the immigration issue is the crux of the issue. People are not up for living in a highly diverse society, London based blues are entirely used to it, but other parts of the country are not up for it. |
Plenty of other places are also fine with it, mostly places that already have some degree of diversity. The places where immigration was a driver behind Brexit were, for the most part, places with little diversity and low levels of immigration. People need to stop being so backwards. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 09:38 - Aug 12 with 3231 views | BigManBlue |
| No deal Brexit on 09:28 - Aug 12 by Herbivore |
Plenty of other places are also fine with it, mostly places that already have some degree of diversity. The places where immigration was a driver behind Brexit were, for the most part, places with little diversity and low levels of immigration. People need to stop being so backwards. |
To be fair, there are also places where diversity has been implemented appallingly. Growing up in West Yorkshire I know more than a few towns where there was very much a sense that immigrants were being dumped into some communities where there was already nothing in the way of jobs or amenities and then pretty much left to fend for themselves.
I totally agree that it's ridiculous as a "main concern" of people who live in villages where everyone has ears that stick out and one of three surnames.
Edit - I just reread that and it maybe sounds like I think immigration itself is the problem, which isn't the case at all - more that, in some places, it's come on top of existing problems and been confused as their root cause, when it's more the other way around. [Post edited 12 Aug 2019 9:43]
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| No deal Brexit on 09:55 - Aug 12 with 3202 views | Herbivore |
| No deal Brexit on 09:38 - Aug 12 by BigManBlue |
To be fair, there are also places where diversity has been implemented appallingly. Growing up in West Yorkshire I know more than a few towns where there was very much a sense that immigrants were being dumped into some communities where there was already nothing in the way of jobs or amenities and then pretty much left to fend for themselves.
I totally agree that it's ridiculous as a "main concern" of people who live in villages where everyone has ears that stick out and one of three surnames.
Edit - I just reread that and it maybe sounds like I think immigration itself is the problem, which isn't the case at all - more that, in some places, it's come on top of existing problems and been confused as their root cause, when it's more the other way around. [Post edited 12 Aug 2019 9:43]
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Although I'd imagine the immigration you're talking about from your time in West Yorkshire wasn't from the EU and was mainly from Commonwealth countries or places affected by conflict. Those coming from the EU choose where to live and don't have any entitlement to be housed, unlike those who come from outside the EU seeking asylum. Leaving the EU won't make any difference to that kind of immigration, other than it may actually increase to meet labour demands. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 10:00 - Aug 12 with 3196 views | itfcjoe |
| No deal Brexit on 09:28 - Aug 12 by Herbivore |
Plenty of other places are also fine with it, mostly places that already have some degree of diversity. The places where immigration was a driver behind Brexit were, for the most part, places with little diversity and low levels of immigration. People need to stop being so backwards. |
Is it really diversity though when it is often just one extra nationality coming into a town?
10k Lithuanians moving to Wisbech is hardly diversity in the same way as London has it where there are people from all across the world, working and bringing their culture across.
In lots of places where there is an anti-EU feeling, there is a huge amount of Eastern European immgrants, doing entry level jobs and a massive strain on public services - all whilst they are being told that immigrants are net contributors.
Whilst a hell of a lot of this is down to austerity and the seemingly deliberate run down of public services - it's not difficult to see why lots of people put 2 and 2 together and get 5 - there are no jobs that pay a proper wage because too many employers are willing to get things done at rock bottom prices. |  |
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| No deal Brexit on 10:14 - Aug 12 with 3177 views | LeighOnSeaBlue |
A fantastic post Sir and spot on with the current state of play. When the Government are talking about airlifting essential supplies you wonder why any country would think this path is a good idea |  | | |
| No deal Brexit on 11:29 - Aug 12 with 3136 views | Pinewoodblue |
| No deal Brexit on 10:00 - Aug 12 by itfcjoe |
Is it really diversity though when it is often just one extra nationality coming into a town?
10k Lithuanians moving to Wisbech is hardly diversity in the same way as London has it where there are people from all across the world, working and bringing their culture across.
In lots of places where there is an anti-EU feeling, there is a huge amount of Eastern European immgrants, doing entry level jobs and a massive strain on public services - all whilst they are being told that immigrants are net contributors.
Whilst a hell of a lot of this is down to austerity and the seemingly deliberate run down of public services - it's not difficult to see why lots of people put 2 and 2 together and get 5 - there are no jobs that pay a proper wage because too many employers are willing to get things done at rock bottom prices. |
The run down of public services is due to a lack of increased funding to cope with increased migration.
Which in turn lead to the vote for Brexit. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 15:42 - Aug 12 with 3066 views | Oxford_Blue |
| No deal Brexit on 10:50 - Aug 11 by Herbivore |
That first paragraph is nonsense. The right were hardened and emboldened from the day after the referendum, hence ultimately it being the hard right that blocked the Withdrawal Agreement despite it representing a harder Brexit than many leave campaigners had campaigned for prior to the referendum. |
The Withdrawal Agreement would have kept BritIn in the customs union indefinitely, with no way legally to end it, unless the EU agreed; and we would have spent £39bn for the privilege.
It’s hard to see how this represents, as you suggest, a harder Brexit than many brexiteers wanted. | | | |
| No deal Brexit on 18:22 - Aug 12 with 3011 views | manchego |
| No deal Brexit on 09:26 - Aug 12 by pennblue |
under European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC, which allows EU member states to repatriate EU nationals after three months if they have not found a job or do not have the means to support themselves.
This is not really having control over our immigration system is it?
I sense the waves of people fearful of a no deal brexit but the immigration issue is the crux of the issue. People are not up for living in a highly diverse society, London based blues are entirely used to it, but other parts of the country are not up for it. |
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/richard-bird/immigration-blame-the-uk-_b_131201
We do (did) control immigration but nobody bothered to say so. |  | | |
| No deal Brexit on 22:52 - Aug 12 with 2962 views | Herbivore |
| No deal Brexit on 15:42 - Aug 12 by Oxford_Blue |
The Withdrawal Agreement would have kept BritIn in the customs union indefinitely, with no way legally to end it, unless the EU agreed; and we would have spent £39bn for the privilege.
It’s hard to see how this represents, as you suggest, a harder Brexit than many brexiteers wanted. |
It's not hard to see at all. Just go back and look at what kind of things the leave campaign were actually talking about prior to the referendum. The WA ended freedom of movement and removed us from the political union. These were the two pillars of Brexit. Economic union - indeed, continuing access to the single market - was another key Brexit pledge. Plenty were calling for a Norway style deal which potentially wouldn't even have ended freedom of movement. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 08:14 - Aug 13 with 2911 views | BigManBlue |
| No deal Brexit on 09:55 - Aug 12 by Herbivore |
Although I'd imagine the immigration you're talking about from your time in West Yorkshire wasn't from the EU and was mainly from Commonwealth countries or places affected by conflict. Those coming from the EU choose where to live and don't have any entitlement to be housed, unlike those who come from outside the EU seeking asylum. Leaving the EU won't make any difference to that kind of immigration, other than it may actually increase to meet labour demands. |
You're absolutely correct, but for a lot of people"immigration" has become so ill-defined and almost axiomatic (no thanks to the imprecise language of our media and politicians) that people don't, or don't bother to, distinguish between the different types.
Personally, I think it's quite amusing that people who voted leave because they wanted to voice their anger about immigration in all forms may actually see it rise. | |
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| No deal Brexit on 20:46 - Aug 22 with 2768 views | Herbivore |
Another good news story relating to no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49440290
Still waiting for the no deal fans to give me the tangible benefits of no deal and the rational arguments for it that outweigh all of the downsides. | |
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