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In recent days there have been a number of stories coming out about a no deal Brexit.
We’ve had Matt Hancock — now fervent no deal backer — refusing to rule out that a no deal Brexit could lead to deaths of patients due to medication shortages. He has spoken about millions of pounds being spent on trying to prevent this whilst describing no deal as “not pretty”. (Source — The Evening Standard)
We’ve had Christopher Hope, another ardent Brexiteer, explaining how we can airlift in essentials like food and medication in the event of a no deal Brexit. That’s right, the 5th largest economy in the world can airlift in humanitarian aid for itself in the event of a no deal Brexit. The cabinet are also reported to have accepted that food prices will increase post-Brexit and this will have an impact for at least a decade. (Source — The Telegraph)
We’ve had a government leak telling us that we cannot maintain the integrity of our waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. (Source — The BBC)
We’ve had the treasury telling us that they will be setting up a “bail out fund” to prevent businesses from going bust in the event of a no deal Brexit. That’s millions if not billions of pounds of public money that is going to be used to prop up businesses that would otherwise fail because of a no deal Brexit. (Source — Various news outlets)
Now, these aren’t ‘project fear’ scare stories from ‘Remoaners’. These are coming from those who either support Brexit, are charged with preparing for no deal Brexit, or most often both. Nobody — aside from perhaps Boris — is even trying to pretend anymore that a no deal Brexit will lead us to the ‘sunlit uplands’. They are open about the fact that it will harm businesses and the economy and that it will lead to shortages of food and medication. It will make things more expensive for the public. We risk inflation going through the roof. On top of that we also know:
A no deal Brexit poses an existential threat to the United Kingdom. In the event of no deal, Scotland will agitate to leave the UK and it seems more likely than not that they will leave. Northern Ireland will be plunged into deep uncertainty.
No deal Brexit also puts us back to square one in negotiating future trade with the EU, but it puts us in a position of weakness in doing so because (a) we will be desperate for a deal, and (b) negotiations will likely take place in an atmosphere of mistrust and bad faith given how the government has conducted itself over Brexit thus far.
Furthermore, the US has ruled out a trade deal with the UK being ratified if the UK does anything to jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement. A no deal Brexit, which will necessitate border checks on the island of Ireland, will necessarily act as a threat to the Good Friday Agreement and that scuppers us doing a trade deal with the US.
Other major countries will be reluctant to do trade deals with us for two reasons. Firstly, we’ve already said we intend to offer tariff-free access for 90%+ of goods and services following a no deal Brexit, so there is no incentive to do a free trade deal with us. Secondly, any major economy will want to know what our trading relationship with the EU will look like before committing to a deal. They will want to know how easily a deal with us will improve or hinder access to our biggest trading partner in the EU.
We also know that Brexit has cost and will continue to cost billions in terms of money spent to mitigate its impact and in terms of the ongoing hit on the economy.
I know that there are some on here who are very keen on a no deal Brexit and see this as their preferred option. Given all of the above I am genuinely curious as to what the rational basis is for your support of a no deal Brexit. What do you see as the short- and long-term benefits that will outweigh all of the above? Do you feel that potential deaths, food and medication shortages, the break up of the UK, the economy struggling, things becoming more expensive, billions being spent on avoiding disaster rather than making the country better etc. is a price worth paying to leave the EU at all costs? If so, how do you justify that?
Any thoughts about Dennis Skinner's argument here back in 2016 (he has voted against every treaty) that the EU will eventually fail? Moreover, he forecast that when the community was enlarged from 12 to 27 nations that most of those countries from the ex Soviet bloc would turn out to be right wing. I think he had a fair point there.
I've always been a big fan of Tony Benn (was gutted when he died and was certainly moved watching this at the time: and as such I find his views on the Europe of interest too.
Most people on here seem pro Europe. Is anybody from that side of the divide prepared to concede at least though that Tony Benn and Dennis Skinner were right on some of their points, as made in the above vids? Or is everybody just too entrenched in their rigid in or out positions to consider giving any credence to what others have said of an opposing view? Things are never as black and white as we think. The country is sadly so polarised over Brexit, how are we meant to stitch it back to together again when nobody seems prepared to budge an inch either way?
As for the potential fall out of a no deal. In essence, fail to prepare, prepare to fail! May's government should of been preparing us for a no-deal from the day she took power. As she said all along, no deal is better than a bad deal but she failed to live up to those words.
How can you have any faith in either side when they repeatedly say one thing over and over again but then do the opposite, see here for example!
I've only got time for the honest ones like Skinner who is genuinely there to represent his constituents. The career politicians seem utterly incapable of getting us out of this mess!
Finally, some would argue that there is historical blueprint on how to negotiate with the EU, but May clearly ignored it.
Most people in here appear to be pro - EU, but it's the people who quietly support it without really having an understanding of the consequences that surprised me.
A fair few people I know voted to leave, mostly with decent and honorable intent (ie, not racist, believing the propaganda about 350m for the NHS, laws imposed by Brussels, euro army etc), but didn't realise that the £would cm, their holidays become unaffordable, their retirement plans be destroyed and their kids hopes basically annihilated by an imploding economy.
Until these types fell the pain, I'm not sure they'll understand what they're merrily matching is all towards.
Any thoughts about Dennis Skinner's argument here back in 2016 (he has voted against every treaty) that the EU will eventually fail? Moreover, he forecast that when the community was enlarged from 12 to 27 nations that most of those countries from the ex Soviet bloc would turn out to be right wing. I think he had a fair point there.
I've always been a big fan of Tony Benn (was gutted when he died and was certainly moved watching this at the time: and as such I find his views on the Europe of interest too.
Most people on here seem pro Europe. Is anybody from that side of the divide prepared to concede at least though that Tony Benn and Dennis Skinner were right on some of their points, as made in the above vids? Or is everybody just too entrenched in their rigid in or out positions to consider giving any credence to what others have said of an opposing view? Things are never as black and white as we think. The country is sadly so polarised over Brexit, how are we meant to stitch it back to together again when nobody seems prepared to budge an inch either way?
As for the potential fall out of a no deal. In essence, fail to prepare, prepare to fail! May's government should of been preparing us for a no-deal from the day she took power. As she said all along, no deal is better than a bad deal but she failed to live up to those words.
How can you have any faith in either side when they repeatedly say one thing over and over again but then do the opposite, see here for example!
I've only got time for the honest ones like Skinner who is genuinely there to represent his constituents. The career politicians seem utterly incapable of getting us out of this mess!
Finally, some would argue that there is historical blueprint on how to negotiate with the EU, but May clearly ignored it.
Arguments for and against Brexit are separate from the issue of No Deal. Eschewing a proper, negotiated and organised departure from a trading bloc of which we have been a part for over four decades because we lack the spirit of consensus and cross-party cooperation, when we know it will be extremely damaging (but might save a few politicians some flak from their fanbase), is just stupid.
That first paragraph is nonsense. The right were hardened and emboldened from the day after the referendum, hence ultimately it being the hard right that blocked the Withdrawal Agreement despite it representing a harder Brexit than many leave campaigners had campaigned for prior to the referendum.
Funny but I seem to recall that the majority of Labour MP, in leave constituencies, helped to vote down the deal.
Funny but I seem to recall that the majority of Labour MP, in leave constituencies, helped to vote down the deal.
The deal is still sheidt.
Any deal is vastly inferior to what we currently have.
As I understand the Labour position, at the time(and I'm happy to be contradicted, if evidence presented), they were told to expect a deal as good or better than currently offered by membership of the EU.
This hasn't been delivered, ergo vote down the deal.
That first paragraph is nonsense. The right were hardened and emboldened from the day after the referendum, hence ultimately it being the hard right that blocked the Withdrawal Agreement despite it representing a harder Brexit than many leave campaigners had campaigned for prior to the referendum.
Well that paragraph is total nonsense! (imho.....see what I did there) Are the Labourf Party, Liberals, Green and SNP hard right?
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
Lots of YouTube clips there. Could you summarise for me why you think a no deal Brexit will benefit the UK and how those benefits outweigh the issues raised in my OP?
Sadly I think it's going to be a big mess whatever happens - I don't see any winners here for a very long time. The country is so split that people are going to feel short changed one way or the other no matter what, which saddens me greatly. I wish we could find a magic unifier out there but I don't see one at all. All divorces are pretty messy, this one (should it happen) will be ultra messy. Even if we had made preparations it would of still been a mess but at the very least we should of made the best preparations we can (in case a deal isn't struck) but this hasn't happened till the 11th hour which is shocking. If we had of been seen to be making proper preparations from the outset it would of strengthened our bargaining hand at least. You could make an argument short-term pain for long-term gain but sadly I think the best I can manage (given the awful way this has been managed by the May government) is long-term pain for potential long-term gain. You raise plenty of valid points by the way. My main angle in here is that the way the May government has handled it has been shocking. Is it any wonder we're in the mess we are. It's painful how divided the country has become. And Dave CaMORON just ran off into the sunset leaving others to clean up his mess! Even if somebody like Tony Benn (hypothetically speaking) had been tasked to oversee Brexit it wouldn't of been without pain, but at least with somebody competent we would of had a fighting chance of working our way through this with a positive long-term outcome. Sadly thanks to May (irony!) and the way the negotiations and contingency planning has been mishandled (the Civil servants have never been on board from what I can gather) we're in the 11th hour and it looks in danger of going to hell. As you rightly say this could be the end of the Union and all the rest of it. It was always going to be like walking through a minefield and if I was walking through a minefield I wouldn't want Theresa may to be the advance sapper / miner. So where do we go from here? Do you think there should be another referendum for example or do you think that will just make the wounds even deeper? Do we try for another extension and try and get our house in better order first? I think the most likely outcome is a general election but then do you have any confidence that whoever wins being able to get it sorted? Based on what's happened so far and who's likely to be in charge following a GE, I don't have much confidence in that option either. What a mess! As for the YouTube vids by the way, they were mostly short. Cheers
Funny but I seem to recall that the majority of Labour MP, in leave constituencies, helped to vote down the deal.
It was the government's deal, not the oppositions and you know full well which faction of the government refused to back the deal in significant numbers. You're being disingenuous.
Lots of YouTube clips there. Could you summarise for me why you think a no deal Brexit will benefit the UK and how those benefits outweigh the issues raised in my OP?
I think it will be a no deal. The second it was accepted as an option, it will happen by default. The Government's position has been inching towards it since it was clear anything put in front of the commons was going to get voted down.
So frustrating that what use to be a fringe issue now dominates every aspect of our political lives. There's a chance a no deal Brexit could really stifle the economy and further punish the most vulnerable in society.
I think it will be a no deal. The second it was accepted as an option, it will happen by default. The Government's position has been inching towards it since it was clear anything put in front of the commons was going to get voted down.
So frustrating that what use to be a fringe issue now dominates every aspect of our political lives. There's a chance a no deal Brexit could really stifle the economy and further punish the most vulnerable in society.
It's more than a chance. The elite who are pushing for this no deal Brexit will be totally insulated from its negative effects, some will even stand to profit from it. It's disgraceful really.
Any thoughts about Dennis Skinner's argument here back in 2016 (he has voted against every treaty) that the EU will eventually fail? Moreover, he forecast that when the community was enlarged from 12 to 27 nations that most of those countries from the ex Soviet bloc would turn out to be right wing. I think he had a fair point there.
I've always been a big fan of Tony Benn (was gutted when he died and was certainly moved watching this at the time: and as such I find his views on the Europe of interest too.
Most people on here seem pro Europe. Is anybody from that side of the divide prepared to concede at least though that Tony Benn and Dennis Skinner were right on some of their points, as made in the above vids? Or is everybody just too entrenched in their rigid in or out positions to consider giving any credence to what others have said of an opposing view? Things are never as black and white as we think. The country is sadly so polarised over Brexit, how are we meant to stitch it back to together again when nobody seems prepared to budge an inch either way?
As for the potential fall out of a no deal. In essence, fail to prepare, prepare to fail! May's government should of been preparing us for a no-deal from the day she took power. As she said all along, no deal is better than a bad deal but she failed to live up to those words.
How can you have any faith in either side when they repeatedly say one thing over and over again but then do the opposite, see here for example!
I've only got time for the honest ones like Skinner who is genuinely there to represent his constituents. The career politicians seem utterly incapable of getting us out of this mess!
Finally, some would argue that there is historical blueprint on how to negotiate with the EU, but May clearly ignored it.
God Dennis Skinner’s head looks like it’s from a character from Goldeneye on the N64
It's more than a chance. The elite who are pushing for this no deal Brexit will be totally insulated from its negative effects, some will even stand to profit from it. It's disgraceful really.
My Brummie mate is even more staunch Brexiteer in recent months. His reasoning? Birmingham gets nothing from London, and no-one in Brum that he knows has any money. So if Brexit impacts the economy and currency, that will hurt those with most, ie Londoners. "It's about time London suffered too". "It can't get any worse in the West Midlands".
Pathetic, but true. And he's notionally quite intelligent.
My Brummie mate is even more staunch Brexiteer in recent months. His reasoning? Birmingham gets nothing from London, and no-one in Brum that he knows has any money. So if Brexit impacts the economy and currency, that will hurt those with most, ie Londoners. "It's about time London suffered too". "It can't get any worse in the West Midlands".
Pathetic, but true. And he's notionally quite intelligent.
It does seem that the only thing left for Brexiteers now is a weird desire to see people suffer. Whenever I've asked for positive reasons why a no deal Brexit is a good thing I don't get any answer. What I usually get is some Brexiteers expressing joy that I find the prospect of a no deal Brexit worrying. It's all they seem to have left now.
It's more than a chance. The elite who are pushing for this no deal Brexit will be totally insulated from its negative effects, some will even stand to profit from it. It's disgraceful really.
Agree. It's still a chance as frankly absolutely no one knows what will happen as it's unprecedented. Fundamentally, it's a totally unnecessary risk and as someone says above even if we agree a deal, it will be totally inferior compared to what's currently in place.
As you say, there are a load of landed gentry and established wealth who can shelter from the potential economic devastation in order to achieve their esoteric political beliefs.
My Brummie mate is even more staunch Brexiteer in recent months. His reasoning? Birmingham gets nothing from London, and no-one in Brum that he knows has any money. So if Brexit impacts the economy and currency, that will hurt those with most, ie Londoners. "It's about time London suffered too". "It can't get any worse in the West Midlands".
Pathetic, but true. And he's notionally quite intelligent.
Scrape all the gubbins away and this is essentially why what used to be the working class came out to vote for once! Class war innit!
"Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose...."
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
It's more than a chance. The elite who are pushing for this no deal Brexit will be totally insulated from its negative effects, some will even stand to profit from it. It's disgraceful really.
Pitchforks at the ready. Start working on some calluses!
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
The only reason Johson's lot are in favour of No Deal is because they know that negotiating a deal with the EU and getting it past the headbangers and tribalists in the Commons is a monumentally difficult task, which they are too lazy (and scared of losing face) to even try.
There are others who want No Deal in order to capitalise upon deregulation and economic chaos, but they are only a troublesome minority.
Everybody else - including the majority of Brexiteers - realise it's stupid and dangerous.
Alright Guffers.
How do you see this whole fcking pavlova of a palaver panning out?
It's more than a chance. The elite who are pushing for this no deal Brexit will be totally insulated from its negative effects, some will even stand to profit from it. It's disgraceful really.
Libertarianism. It’s what it’s about. Anyone pushing this hard Brexit fails to understand trading partnerships equated with national needs. They want to smash the rules we follow and keep tax low. The Sovereign Individual is a right wing take on modern upheaval of the Internet and Globalisation written by Rees-Moggs father. There will be huge change, with a slow erosion of rights and government national spending. The tori’s are being forced by Farage and the political earthquake occurring. We need a big protest or Commons tirade against hard Brexit to save the country from heading in a dangerous direction.
Libertarianism. It’s what it’s about. Anyone pushing this hard Brexit fails to understand trading partnerships equated with national needs. They want to smash the rules we follow and keep tax low. The Sovereign Individual is a right wing take on modern upheaval of the Internet and Globalisation written by Rees-Moggs father. There will be huge change, with a slow erosion of rights and government national spending. The tori’s are being forced by Farage and the political earthquake occurring. We need a big protest or Commons tirade against hard Brexit to save the country from heading in a dangerous direction.
Libertarianism (sounds great doesn't it, good branding) which I prefer to call survival of the fittest individualism is the unfortunate but inevitable natural progression of Thatcher's no such thing as society mantra so happily gobbled up by short termist , property speculating, public utility stock buying sociopaths. We reap what we sow.....oh if only Corbyn didn't hate Jews.
Edit....if only there was some semblance of a society left that we could feel called to contribute to and feel we wanted to belong to!
[Post edited 11 Aug 2019 21:13]
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
If we want control over immigration then we really have no choice but no deal do we?
The Withdrawal agreement can’t get through parliament and the EU won’t renegotiate.
What is the alternative?
My personal view is that whilst it will be disruptive in the short term, countries will want to trade with us so deals will get done quickly after we leave.
I think the U.S will do a trade deal and will be an ok one. Trump likes the UK and wants to be liked here.
I suspect we will tweak rules and taxes to make us very attractive to invest in.
I also think the country has been in demise for some time and it will give us a kick up the arse to start thinking more strategically.
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