| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 10:49 - Jan 25 with 7589 views | ElderGrizzly |
Still only a 27 point lead with Reform’s 13% likely to deliver just 2 MPs for Tice but lose the Tories 200. Oh well :)
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:52 - Jan 25 with 3677 views | ChampionsofInnsbruck |
It's amazing as soon as Labour get a Tory leader, they start to win over Tory voters, who will be expecting similar disastrous ideas from the new Government that they have expected of Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, and the 19/20 we have had since. |  | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:56 - Jan 25 with 3626 views | Keno |
Pity the Lib Dems dont have a credible leader |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:56 - Jan 25 with 3628 views | Guthrum |
There will be a point at which they reach a natural limit of people who would consider voting Labour. Likewise, there will always be a core of people who vote Conservative, out of habit if not conviction. The numbers are unlikely to move outside that range. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:09 - Jan 25 with 3559 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:52 - Jan 25 by ChampionsofInnsbruck |
It's amazing as soon as Labour get a Tory leader, they start to win over Tory voters, who will be expecting similar disastrous ideas from the new Government that they have expected of Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, and the 19/20 we have had since. |
In what way is Starmer a Tory? |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:22 - Jan 25 with 3507 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:09 - Jan 25 by GlasgowBlue |
In what way is Starmer a Tory? |
The way that makes you happy to vote for him. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:49 - Jan 25 with 3420 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:09 - Jan 25 by GlasgowBlue |
In what way is Starmer a Tory? |
Economically, there’s a strong case he’s very similar. He and Reeves seem hell bent on pursuing neoliberal economic ideology at the cost of public services. That’s where all the signs are pointing anyway.
Socially, who knows. It’s difficult to know what he stands for, but he’ll be constrained in what he can do by his economic views. [Post edited 25 Jan 19:04]
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:24 - Jan 25 with 3308 views | MattinLondon |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:49 - Jan 25 by Swansea_Blue |
Economically, there’s a strong case he’s very similar. He and Reeves seem hell bent on pursuing neoliberal economic ideology at the cost of public services. That’s where all the signs are pointing anyway.
Socially, who knows. It’s difficult to know what he stands for, but he’ll be constrained in what he can do by his economic views. [Post edited 25 Jan 19:04]
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He’s not a Tory but he is very timid in announcing policies which will be intentionally misinterpreted by Murdoch and his mates. Look how much negativity was extended to him when he stated that well-off people should pay VAT on private education.
If labour win, I’m guessing that they will be a tad more brave in stating what they believe in.
For me, the strangest thing is that some who profess to be quite left-wing, seem to be happier seating on the sidelines with no chance of winning an election. Rather than wanting a much more centralist leader winning power. A strange loser mindset. |  | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:27 - Jan 25 with 3291 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:56 - Jan 25 by Keno |
Pity the Lib Dems dont have a credible leader |
With even some of the predicted tactical voting, even at these % it will mean 35+ seats. | | | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:28 - Jan 25 with 3283 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:24 - Jan 25 by MattinLondon |
He’s not a Tory but he is very timid in announcing policies which will be intentionally misinterpreted by Murdoch and his mates. Look how much negativity was extended to him when he stated that well-off people should pay VAT on private education.
If labour win, I’m guessing that they will be a tad more brave in stating what they believe in.
For me, the strangest thing is that some who profess to be quite left-wing, seem to be happier seating on the sidelines with no chance of winning an election. Rather than wanting a much more centralist leader winning power. A strange loser mindset. |
If they win with the majorities being predicted, I expect we'll see some very bold policies. | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:55 - Jan 25 with 3161 views | NthQldITFC |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:22 - Jan 25 by BanksterDebtSlave |
The way that makes you happy to vote for him. |
That made Oi larf, apologies. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 13:05 - Jan 25 with 3136 views | NthQldITFC |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:49 - Jan 25 by Swansea_Blue |
Economically, there’s a strong case he’s very similar. He and Reeves seem hell bent on pursuing neoliberal economic ideology at the cost of public services. That’s where all the signs are pointing anyway.
Socially, who knows. It’s difficult to know what he stands for, but he’ll be constrained in what he can do by his economic views. [Post edited 25 Jan 19:04]
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I think the question is going to be: Has he any courage?
Any sane person who looks beyond the next one or two years (and I appreciate that's getting harder and harder to do) must realise on some level that a continuation of that neoliberal economic ideology will, without any shadow of a doubt, result in increasing poverty and social disorder to the point at which we end up a lawless and toothless former first world state. Society will collapse if we don't have a rebalancing of economic comfort (not wealth, because wealth is happiness and that's got nothing to do with money).
I live in hope that Starmer might have some courage to reboot the UK as a vaguely socially and environmentally responsible kingdom while we still have the chance, but I know that the left wing of the party are not optimistic on that front. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 13:07 - Jan 25 with 3121 views | Keno |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:27 - Jan 25 by ElderGrizzly |
With even some of the predicted tactical voting, even at these % it will mean 35+ seats. |
true but it should/could be more than that | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 13:23 - Jan 25 with 3076 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 13:05 - Jan 25 by NthQldITFC |
I think the question is going to be: Has he any courage?
Any sane person who looks beyond the next one or two years (and I appreciate that's getting harder and harder to do) must realise on some level that a continuation of that neoliberal economic ideology will, without any shadow of a doubt, result in increasing poverty and social disorder to the point at which we end up a lawless and toothless former first world state. Society will collapse if we don't have a rebalancing of economic comfort (not wealth, because wealth is happiness and that's got nothing to do with money).
I live in hope that Starmer might have some courage to reboot the UK as a vaguely socially and environmentally responsible kingdom while we still have the chance, but I know that the left wing of the party are not optimistic on that front. |
There’s a lot of use of the wishy-washy term of ‘neoliberalism’ which I assume people actually mean in terms of public services since we aren’t a light touch de-regulated economy like the US (albeit that was the clearly the end game for Brexit). Nor are we looking to roll back free trade (I would hope). Whilst it was easy for Corbyn to offer the world given he was never likely to be elected, Starmer has his hands tied on public spending. Corbyn’s nationalisation plan was ‘costed’ at over £200bn, most of which was guesswork as forced nationalisation would have been tied up in the courts for years whilst trying to agree a price for the equities. He also forgot to include key costs such as the ~£30bn of national grid infrastructure.
Our national debt is now so monumental we are paying over £100bn a year to service it (which is almost as much as we spend on education!). Starmer’s only option would be to increase taxes - which as history has shown, people are not going to vote for. He’s going to have to talk the talk to get elected, and then raise taxes once in power. My main gripe would be that he’s shown no commitment to wealth taxes, which given the small voting base affected isn’t going to damage his election chances. Though I assume he’s concerned how the press will spin that as an ‘attack on the masses’. [Post edited 25 Jan 21:52]
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 14:54 - Jan 25 with 2971 views | GlasgowBlue |
Everything points to a Labour victory, and after the past few years of ineptitude under the Tories that should be a given, But I don't think the vote will be anything like the one you've linked.
Different pollsters, different polls, different methodology.
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 14:56 - Jan 25 with 2969 views | baxterbasics |
Whilst I'm not rubbing my hands in anticipation of Lab victory, it does have a sense of inevitability now and I agree they should just get on with it and call an election. This government is done. Hate to say it but them's the facts. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:28 - Jan 25 with 2881 views | nodge_blue |
The downside to that is their desire to undermine amd then hi jack the rump of the Tories to be even more right wing and force a merger. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 16:57 - Jan 25 with 2840 views | giant_stow |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 11:22 - Jan 25 by BanksterDebtSlave |
The way that makes you happy to vote for him. |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 17:09 - Jan 25 with 2828 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 10:56 - Jan 25 by Guthrum |
There will be a point at which they reach a natural limit of people who would consider voting Labour. Likewise, there will always be a core of people who vote Conservative, out of habit if not conviction. The numbers are unlikely to move outside that range. |
Recent polls suggest only 10% of under-50s are considering voting Tory! | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 17:59 - Jan 25 with 2760 views | Trequartista |
UKIP took a significant chunk of working-class Labour voters in previous elections. I wouldn't assume Reform won't do the same. |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 19:13 - Jan 25 with 2646 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 12:24 - Jan 25 by MattinLondon |
He’s not a Tory but he is very timid in announcing policies which will be intentionally misinterpreted by Murdoch and his mates. Look how much negativity was extended to him when he stated that well-off people should pay VAT on private education.
If labour win, I’m guessing that they will be a tad more brave in stating what they believe in.
For me, the strangest thing is that some who profess to be quite left-wing, seem to be happier seating on the sidelines with no chance of winning an election. Rather than wanting a much more centralist leader winning power. A strange loser mindset. |
It’s a strange position isn’t it? Many people seem to be expecting Labour to do something different to the things they’re currently talking about. Whether they will, we’ll have to see. They’ll end up upsetting someone. Either they’ll stay Tory-lite and piss off those hoping they’ll become more traditionally Labour. Or they’ll change and become more socialist and piss off the voters they steal from the Tories.
I can’t speak for the people on the left of the Labour Party, but I assume they don’t care about winning if the government we get doesn’t represent their socialist values. To them it probably makes no difference whether it’s the Tories or Labour if Labour are going to carry on with the Tory approach of austerity (which looks likely). | |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 20:13 - Jan 25 with 2571 views | DJR |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 19:13 - Jan 25 by Swansea_Blue |
It’s a strange position isn’t it? Many people seem to be expecting Labour to do something different to the things they’re currently talking about. Whether they will, we’ll have to see. They’ll end up upsetting someone. Either they’ll stay Tory-lite and piss off those hoping they’ll become more traditionally Labour. Or they’ll change and become more socialist and piss off the voters they steal from the Tories.
I can’t speak for the people on the left of the Labour Party, but I assume they don’t care about winning if the government we get doesn’t represent their socialist values. To them it probably makes no difference whether it’s the Tories or Labour if Labour are going to carry on with the Tory approach of austerity (which looks likely). |
As someone who would have been a Labour centrist in the 70s but find that the political centre of gravity has moved so far to the right that these days (even though my views haven't changed I might even be regarded as far left (although not hard left which I think has different connotations), I would obviously prefer a Labour government to a Tory one. But this doesn't mean I'm happy with the current state of the Labour Party. Hence I have recently resigned from the party, having been a member since 1985, with a short break in the mid-2000s. And for the first time in my life, I will vote for Labour with no enthusiasm. [Post edited 26 Jan 8:42]
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 20:25 - Jan 25 with 2545 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 17:59 - Jan 25 by Trequartista |
UKIP took a significant chunk of working-class Labour voters in previous elections. I wouldn't assume Reform won't do the same. |
With the slogan "Get Brexit done at last" or "Actually Stop the Boats"?
Surely there comes a point when those disillusioned working class voters recognise they are being played? |  |
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| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:50 - Jan 26 with 2341 views | DJR |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 13:23 - Jan 25 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
There’s a lot of use of the wishy-washy term of ‘neoliberalism’ which I assume people actually mean in terms of public services since we aren’t a light touch de-regulated economy like the US (albeit that was the clearly the end game for Brexit). Nor are we looking to roll back free trade (I would hope). Whilst it was easy for Corbyn to offer the world given he was never likely to be elected, Starmer has his hands tied on public spending. Corbyn’s nationalisation plan was ‘costed’ at over £200bn, most of which was guesswork as forced nationalisation would have been tied up in the courts for years whilst trying to agree a price for the equities. He also forgot to include key costs such as the ~£30bn of national grid infrastructure.
Our national debt is now so monumental we are paying over £100bn a year to service it (which is almost as much as we spend on education!). Starmer’s only option would be to increase taxes - which as history has shown, people are not going to vote for. He’s going to have to talk the talk to get elected, and then raise taxes once in power. My main gripe would be that he’s shown no commitment to wealth taxes, which given the small voting base affected isn’t going to damage his election chances. Though I assume he’s concerned how the press will spin that as an ‘attack on the masses’. [Post edited 25 Jan 21:52]
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Someone as eminent as Paul Johnson suggested the other day another option.
“If they are promising tax cuts, let’s hear where the spending cuts will fall. If they are going to raise, or even protect, spending, they should tell us where taxes will rise. Or parties might think that further increases in government debt are justified, in which case they should make the argument for why debt should be rising."
It mustn't be forgotten that we have had two huge once in a generation events (Covid and Ukraine) in the space of four years, so I am not convinced that the current strict fiscal target is wise, especially given the fact that the IFS is predicting austerity greater than under Cameron and Osborne. The fiscal target is in any event a bit of a fiction and what the head of the OBR called the manana rule because of its rolling nature.
And for a critique of Austerity 1.0, this is well worth a read.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-de | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:07 - Jan 26 with 2289 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 08:50 - Jan 26 by DJR |
Someone as eminent as Paul Johnson suggested the other day another option.
“If they are promising tax cuts, let’s hear where the spending cuts will fall. If they are going to raise, or even protect, spending, they should tell us where taxes will rise. Or parties might think that further increases in government debt are justified, in which case they should make the argument for why debt should be rising."
It mustn't be forgotten that we have had two huge once in a generation events (Covid and Ukraine) in the space of four years, so I am not convinced that the current strict fiscal target is wise, especially given the fact that the IFS is predicting austerity greater than under Cameron and Osborne. The fiscal target is in any event a bit of a fiction and what the head of the OBR called the manana rule because of its rolling nature.
And for a critique of Austerity 1.0, this is well worth a read.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-de |
I wasn’t proposing an extension of austerity, rather I was suggesting Starmer is going to have to raise taxes. Any politician who suggests there is no impact from simply borrowing more is just being fundamentally dishonest (or at best naive). Any substantial increase in unfunded borrowing is going to see a negative reaction from the markets, and likely also hit sterling. We’ve also had two sovereign downgrades which makes borrowing more expensive. I see the argument for him being honest and open about tax rises, but it’s just not going to play well in the media.
As far as I can see, wealth taxes are the only option given that most people are struggling with the cost of living crisis. Corporation tax is already rising to a rate which is higher than the EU average, if this is leveraged too much more capital will just move offshore. | | | |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:19 - Jan 26 with 2259 views | itfcjoe |
| Labour ‘flat-lining’ in latest You Gov poll 😉 on 09:07 - Jan 26 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
I wasn’t proposing an extension of austerity, rather I was suggesting Starmer is going to have to raise taxes. Any politician who suggests there is no impact from simply borrowing more is just being fundamentally dishonest (or at best naive). Any substantial increase in unfunded borrowing is going to see a negative reaction from the markets, and likely also hit sterling. We’ve also had two sovereign downgrades which makes borrowing more expensive. I see the argument for him being honest and open about tax rises, but it’s just not going to play well in the media.
As far as I can see, wealth taxes are the only option given that most people are struggling with the cost of living crisis. Corporation tax is already rising to a rate which is higher than the EU average, if this is leveraged too much more capital will just move offshore. |
On yesterday's Political Currency podcast both George Osborne and Ed Balls made this pint - tax take is low, aging population so NHS and Social Care costs rising, global security is on edge so defence costs are heightened and we are having to pay something like £100bn a year to service the national debt - tax rises are inevitable as we need more public spending.
Just need to have the public spending going on growth industries as well (i.e, a green investment plan) |  |
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