| 8 wins from the final 11 games 10:46 - Mar 4 with 3314 views | Nazemariner |
Do we think that will be good enogh to see us into the play offs? |  | | |  |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:25 - Mar 4 with 775 views | Kropotkin123 |
If a striker hits some form, I believe so. If not, then I think not. |  |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:39 - Mar 4 with 749 views | Chrisd |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 13:51 - Mar 4 by itfcjoe |
McKenna won 7 of his 1st 11 games, so whilst Cook may have struggled to win consecutive games McKenna hasn't done, he's just struggled to win the 3rd game in a row |
and I'd counter that by saying look at our record against the top 6, where we've beaten none of them this season with PC or KM at the helm and we've got 3 of them to play - two being the best sides in the division. It's a huge ask to say this is achievable, your earlier post highlights that. I grant you it's not impossible, but it really is remotely slim and that's being generous. |  |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:43 - Mar 4 with 736 views | Eireannach_gorm |
As we only win 3 together it has to be 3 - blank - 3 - blank - 3. |  | | |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 17:27 - Mar 4 with 713 views | cphtractor |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 13:13 - Mar 4 by clive_baker |
Pre KM:
Played:23
Points: 29
PPG: 1.26
Since KM:
P:12
Points: 24
PPG: 2.00
As you say, regardless of where it leaves us, if KM can keep up this PPG it's very encouraging for next season. Extrapolate these 12 games over a season and it's 92 points and <20 goals conceded all season. It's been so much better, and you have to think with a summer transfer window and full pre season to tweak and get his ideas across we do look to be in safe hands.
We shouldn't forget that we were 10 points off 6th when he joined, 13 off 5th AND everyone had a game in hand, with exactly half a season left. That's the equivalent of starting a season on about -22 points with no pre season to get your ideas across and expecting top 6. We're on an upward trajectory, we can all play our part in keeping it going and shouldn't be too disheartened if we don't make up the massive gap that KM was faced with.
UTFT [Post edited 4 Mar 2022 13:54]
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Thing is KM has had a fairly easy run, he averaged 2 points p/g against teams who are placed, on average, 14.58th. in the league.
After the dreadful start of six; PC averaged 1.71 points p/g against teams who are placed, on average, 11.93th. in the league.
I´m not sure that KM has improved us that much but sacking PC might have prevented a Burley-esque charge up the league.
As for the topic I think we might need 26 or even 27 😬 |  | | |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 17:45 - Mar 4 with 685 views | positivity |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:43 - Mar 4 by Eireannach_gorm |
As we only win 3 together it has to be 3 - blank - 3 - blank - 3. |
we can't win 3 together, so it'd be WW?WW?WW?WW! | |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 18:49 - Mar 4 with 667 views | jayessess |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:39 - Mar 4 by Chrisd |
and I'd counter that by saying look at our record against the top 6, where we've beaten none of them this season with PC or KM at the helm and we've got 3 of them to play - two being the best sides in the division. It's a huge ask to say this is achievable, your earlier post highlights that. I grant you it's not impossible, but it really is remotely slim and that's being generous. |
Under KM all we've had is 2 away games against Top 6 sides. We shaded the game at MK Dons (3rd) and badly missed Morsy at Sheffield Wednesday (5th).
Personally don't see why we should be scared of Wigan and Oxford, who couldn't beat weaker Ipswich teams. Admittedly anything we take from Rotherham is a bonus.
We're perfectly capable of winning all of the 11 games and I'd make us favourites to win in 8 or 9 of them. The issue is that it's an outrageous level of consistency to require. [Post edited 4 Mar 2022 18:54]
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 19:27 - Mar 4 with 646 views | HARRY10 |
Based on games so far
6th place will be 78 points & 5th on 82 points
whether that pans out, remains to be seen
what is known is that in 2015 we finished with 78 points, playoff place
35 games ...... 60 points - 2015
35 games ...... 53 points - 2022 | | | |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 20:02 - Mar 4 with 629 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 10:54 - Mar 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
8 wins should be enough, even if the other 3 are defeats. There’s probably a few nightmare scenarios where it isn’t (which would include those 3 defeats being the wrong 3 games) but 77 would be a seriously high mark to get in the playoffs
The bigger problem is that we need 8 wins from 11 (and 7 probably won’t cut it with 3/4 draws) which is a massive ask, if only we’d binned off Cook a bit sooner |
"The bigger problem is that we need 8 wins from 11 (and 7 probably won’t cut it with 3/4 draws) "
8 wins =24 pts
7 wins + 3 draws =24 pts.
Why do you think the former would be enough but the latter wouldn't? |  |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 20:21 - Mar 4 with 616 views | clive_baker |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 17:27 - Mar 4 by cphtractor |
Thing is KM has had a fairly easy run, he averaged 2 points p/g against teams who are placed, on average, 14.58th. in the league.
After the dreadful start of six; PC averaged 1.71 points p/g against teams who are placed, on average, 11.93th. in the league.
I´m not sure that KM has improved us that much but sacking PC might have prevented a Burley-esque charge up the league.
As for the topic I think we might need 26 or even 27 😬 |
Although KM has had 5 at home and 7 away. Trips to in form MK, Bolton & Sheff Wed. Wycombe at home. I would say his 12 games have been a relatively reasonable sample of 1/4 of a season at this level. Certainly by the end of the season he’ll have had a full half season and there can be no arguments about the fixtures he’s faced.
It’s not just about points yield though, we’re far more robust and better organised IMO.
Wouldn’t surprise me if you’re right on that required points, I can’t see us getting it at all. Just to maintain 2ppg and finish on 75 would be some achievement. |  |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 20:26 - Mar 4 with 611 views | Chrisd |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 18:49 - Mar 4 by jayessess |
Under KM all we've had is 2 away games against Top 6 sides. We shaded the game at MK Dons (3rd) and badly missed Morsy at Sheffield Wednesday (5th).
Personally don't see why we should be scared of Wigan and Oxford, who couldn't beat weaker Ipswich teams. Admittedly anything we take from Rotherham is a bonus.
We're perfectly capable of winning all of the 11 games and I'd make us favourites to win in 8 or 9 of them. The issue is that it's an outrageous level of consistency to require. [Post edited 4 Mar 2022 18:54]
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Oxford have got a very decent home record with 11 victories and score for fun and Wigan have one of the best away records in the league. You’re talking with the blue tinted specs on, logic suggests we aren’t going to win all 11 games. Tomorrow will be a tough encounter on their dodgy pitch, let’s see if we can win that one first before we start getting ahead of ourselves. [Post edited 4 Mar 2022 20:38]
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 20:28 - Mar 4 with 609 views | HARRY10 |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 10:54 - Mar 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
8 wins should be enough, even if the other 3 are defeats. There’s probably a few nightmare scenarios where it isn’t (which would include those 3 defeats being the wrong 3 games) but 77 would be a seriously high mark to get in the playoffs
The bigger problem is that we need 8 wins from 11 (and 7 probably won’t cut it with 3/4 draws) which is a massive ask, if only we’d binned off Cook a bit sooner |
eh ?
based in points achieved, since January 6th place has averaged 78-82 points. what makes you think that is suddenly going to drop off
were it to be one team then yes, that is possible but what we have seen is a level of consistency - for every Plymouth tailing off we have Sheff Weds surging ahead
there are five possibilities for 6th place, which is all that is reasonable to hope forgiven how things stand
we need at total over the next eleven games which would have us finishing on 102-108 points over 46 games. I cannot see that I'm afraid | | | |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 10:15 - Mar 5 with 532 views | jayessess |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 20:26 - Mar 4 by Chrisd |
Oxford have got a very decent home record with 11 victories and score for fun and Wigan have one of the best away records in the league. You’re talking with the blue tinted specs on, logic suggests we aren’t going to win all 11 games. Tomorrow will be a tough encounter on their dodgy pitch, let’s see if we can win that one first before we start getting ahead of ourselves. [Post edited 4 Mar 2022 20:38]
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I'm.not saying we'll win all 11 games, ffs. I'm saying that we are capable of beating all of those 11 opponents on our day. That's not blue-tinted specs, that's the reality of League One.
A worse version of our team shaded even games with both Wigan and Oxford. The games coming up are also likely to be even affairs. The idea that we need a miracle to beat either team, rather than just a good day or a couple of lucky breaks, is daft and defeatist. | |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:15 - Mar 5 with 489 views | HARRY10 |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 10:15 - Mar 5 by jayessess |
I'm.not saying we'll win all 11 games, ffs. I'm saying that we are capable of beating all of those 11 opponents on our day. That's not blue-tinted specs, that's the reality of League One.
A worse version of our team shaded even games with both Wigan and Oxford. The games coming up are also likely to be even affairs. The idea that we need a miracle to beat either team, rather than just a good day or a couple of lucky breaks, is daft and defeatist. |
Whereas your pointing out something that is 'the reality of League One', as if it was a new observation., but does not apply to other teams.
No one is talking about us needing a miracle - fans are just pointing out the reality of the situation. So what if we beat those two. That puts us on 59 points.
it is odds on that we will finish above Bolton. that is not being defeatist or optimistic, that is making a prediction based on what has happened, and so, what is likely to happen.
Yes, we can reach the play offs. But for that to happen an awful lot of unlikely results will need to happen
In 2015 we hit 78 points to scrape into 6th by GD. We had 60 points after 35 games then. We have 53 now. On 35 game form we will need 79 points to reach 6th.
It is not about whether we can beat a couple of teams. It is about the probability of us winning 8 or 9 of our last 11 games.
If my life depended on it I know which way I would bet. Am I a lesser town fan for that ? | | | |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:23 - Mar 5 with 484 views | Chrisd |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:15 - Mar 5 by HARRY10 |
Whereas your pointing out something that is 'the reality of League One', as if it was a new observation., but does not apply to other teams.
No one is talking about us needing a miracle - fans are just pointing out the reality of the situation. So what if we beat those two. That puts us on 59 points.
it is odds on that we will finish above Bolton. that is not being defeatist or optimistic, that is making a prediction based on what has happened, and so, what is likely to happen.
Yes, we can reach the play offs. But for that to happen an awful lot of unlikely results will need to happen
In 2015 we hit 78 points to scrape into 6th by GD. We had 60 points after 35 games then. We have 53 now. On 35 game form we will need 79 points to reach 6th.
It is not about whether we can beat a couple of teams. It is about the probability of us winning 8 or 9 of our last 11 games.
If my life depended on it I know which way I would bet. Am I a lesser town fan for that ? |
Harry, you can’t come out with a logical post like that. Completely agree 100%! Have an uppie. | |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:26 - Mar 5 with 479 views | jayessess |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:15 - Mar 5 by HARRY10 |
Whereas your pointing out something that is 'the reality of League One', as if it was a new observation., but does not apply to other teams.
No one is talking about us needing a miracle - fans are just pointing out the reality of the situation. So what if we beat those two. That puts us on 59 points.
it is odds on that we will finish above Bolton. that is not being defeatist or optimistic, that is making a prediction based on what has happened, and so, what is likely to happen.
Yes, we can reach the play offs. But for that to happen an awful lot of unlikely results will need to happen
In 2015 we hit 78 points to scrape into 6th by GD. We had 60 points after 35 games then. We have 53 now. On 35 game form we will need 79 points to reach 6th.
It is not about whether we can beat a couple of teams. It is about the probability of us winning 8 or 9 of our last 11 games.
If my life depended on it I know which way I would bet. Am I a lesser town fan for that ? |
More or less what I said:
"We're perfectly capable of winning all of the 11 games and I'd make us favourites to win in 8 or 9 of them. The issue is that it's an outrageous level of consistency to require."
Which was dismissed as blue-tinted specs for some reason. | |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:31 - Mar 5 with 476 views | Oldsmoker |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 11:42 - Mar 4 by positivity |
we need skuse back |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:34 - Mar 5 with 472 views | Chrisd |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:26 - Mar 5 by jayessess |
More or less what I said:
"We're perfectly capable of winning all of the 11 games and I'd make us favourites to win in 8 or 9 of them. The issue is that it's an outrageous level of consistency to require."
Which was dismissed as blue-tinted specs for some reason. |
Not really, no. You’re still very much wearing those blue tinted specs. [Post edited 5 Mar 2022 14:38]
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:36 - Mar 5 with 471 views | Oldsmoker |
Well done Nazemariner for starting one of the better football threads in the last 2 weeks.
Very enjoyable reading it and all contributors posted a considered response rather than engage in petty slandering.
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:44 - Mar 5 with 458 views | jayessess |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:34 - Mar 5 by Chrisd |
Not really, no. You’re still very much wearing those blue tinted specs. [Post edited 5 Mar 2022 14:38]
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It's essentially a paraphrase of this!
"It is not about whether we can beat a couple of teams. It is about the probability of us winning 8 or 9 of our last 11 games."
What's the difference? | |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:57 - Mar 5 with 445 views | Chrisd |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:44 - Mar 5 by jayessess |
It's essentially a paraphrase of this!
"It is not about whether we can beat a couple of teams. It is about the probability of us winning 8 or 9 of our last 11 games."
What's the difference? |
‘We’re perfectly capable of winning all 11 games’
Based on a side that struggles to win consecutive games under PC and KM?! I appreciate perhaps you are more positive than me regarding our play off chances, but come on, use a bit of logic from what you’ve seen from the past 35 league games instead of basing your assessment purely on hope. | |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 15:02 - Mar 5 with 435 views | jayessess |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 14:57 - Mar 5 by Chrisd |
‘We’re perfectly capable of winning all 11 games’
Based on a side that struggles to win consecutive games under PC and KM?! I appreciate perhaps you are more positive than me regarding our play off chances, but come on, use a bit of logic from what you’ve seen from the past 35 league games instead of basing your assessment purely on hope. |
Like I already explained, I am not arguing, have not argued that we are going to win all 11.
'We are perfectly capable of winning ALL OF THE 11 games" meaning as individual, one-off contests. As in even when we show up at the New York Stadium on Good Friday there is not a totally insignificant chance we'll win that game on that day. | |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 15:14 - Mar 5 with 428 views | Chrisd |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 15:02 - Mar 5 by jayessess |
Like I already explained, I am not arguing, have not argued that we are going to win all 11.
'We are perfectly capable of winning ALL OF THE 11 games" meaning as individual, one-off contests. As in even when we show up at the New York Stadium on Good Friday there is not a totally insignificant chance we'll win that game on that day. |
Lets put a pin in it there, otherwise it will become petty and it ultimately ruins a perfectly good thread. We’ve both made it clear what our thoughts are on this issue. [Post edited 5 Mar 2022 16:39]
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:49 - Mar 5 with 397 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 20:02 - Mar 4 by Pinewoodblue |
"The bigger problem is that we need 8 wins from 11 (and 7 probably won’t cut it with 3/4 draws) "
8 wins =24 pts
7 wins + 3 draws =24 pts.
Why do you think the former would be enough but the latter wouldn't? |
Nothing, that was a typo and supposed to say without!
Anyway, 1 win down, 7 to go! |  |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:50 - Mar 5 with 388 views | FrimleyBlue |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 16:49 - Mar 5 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Nothing, that was a typo and supposed to say without!
Anyway, 1 win down, 7 to go! |
6 home games...... |  |
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| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 17:24 - Mar 5 with 357 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 20:28 - Mar 4 by HARRY10 |
eh ?
based in points achieved, since January 6th place has averaged 78-82 points. what makes you think that is suddenly going to drop off
were it to be one team then yes, that is possible but what we have seen is a level of consistency - for every Plymouth tailing off we have Sheff Weds surging ahead
there are five possibilities for 6th place, which is all that is reasonable to hope forgiven how things stand
we need at total over the next eleven games which would have us finishing on 102-108 points over 46 games. I cannot see that I'm afraid |
Because the final table won’t be based on the number of points gained since an arbitrary date in the season
Indeed looking at the last 10 complete seasons (I’ve ignored 2019/20 from the below given the abandonment), the points total of the 6th place team has been as follows:
74, 73, 71, 73, 74, 69, 74, 74, 73, 71
So 77 would be a historically high total as it is, let alone anything higher. And whilst the current running may be high with the 6th place side on 61 points after 36 games (even if Sheff Weds pick up points from their game in hand Wycombe would be 6th on 61), past years have had teams in the same ballpark. Indeed last season Blackpool were 6th with 60 points from 36, and in 2013 Tranmere had the same total, with both seasons ending with the 6th placed team on 74 points. Given its slightly higher this time 75, 76 or even 77 is feasible but it would be a huge surprise if it ends up higher. Therefore 8 wins should do it (1 down, 7 to go), but that itself is a massive ask
You daft rightie | |
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