| 8 wins from the final 11 games on 17:24 - Mar 5 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Because the final table won’t be based on the number of points gained since an arbitrary date in the season
Indeed looking at the last 10 complete seasons (I’ve ignored 2019/20 from the below given the abandonment), the points total of the 6th place team has been as follows:
74, 73, 71, 73, 74, 69, 74, 74, 73, 71
So 77 would be a historically high total as it is, let alone anything higher. And whilst the current running may be high with the 6th place side on 61 points after 36 games (even if Sheff Weds pick up points from their game in hand Wycombe would be 6th on 61), past years have had teams in the same ballpark. Indeed last season Blackpool were 6th with 60 points from 36, and in 2013 Tranmere had the same total, with both seasons ending with the 6th placed team on 74 points. Given its slightly higher this time 75, 76 or even 77 is feasible but it would be a huge surprise if it ends up higher. Therefore 8 wins should do it (1 down, 7 to go), but that itself is a massive ask
You daft rightie |
On Jan 1st, 6th place was tracking 82/83 points on ppg.
The team currently in 5th is tracking 78 points (although Plymouth below them are tracking 79-80 and Wednesday 80).
So the figure is dropping slightly. I think statistically you'd expect some regression towards the mean (so towards the approx 1.6 ppg that 6th-placed teams usually accumulate), but obviously that isn't going to cancel out the over-accumulation of points the Top 8 already have. |  |
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