| Boris/Cummins strategy.... 09:10 - Oct 23 with 4911 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
.....looks like it was always a people v Parliament election
....and many of the plebs will be keeping warm under their blankets so won't get out to vote Labour or Farage. |  |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:24 - Oct 23 with 3247 views | factual_blue |
He's got to get Parliament to agree to an election first.... |  |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:31 - Oct 23 with 3222 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:24 - Oct 23 by factual_blue |
He's got to get Parliament to agree to an election first.... |
He will. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:33 - Oct 23 with 3216 views | BlueinBrum |
An interesting point about the weather. Have we ever had a winter election before? Not in my voting lifetime certainly.
I really don't think the importance of something like the weather should be understated. So many people just don't really give a toss and will only bother if it's not cold/raining. |  | | |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:35 - Oct 23 with 3207 views | NotSure |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:33 - Oct 23 by BlueinBrum |
An interesting point about the weather. Have we ever had a winter election before? Not in my voting lifetime certainly.
I really don't think the importance of something like the weather should be understated. So many people just don't really give a toss and will only bother if it's not cold/raining. |
December 1910 was the last one, which the Liberals won.
Liberals obviously like cold weather! |  | | |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:48 - Oct 23 with 3172 views | Guthrum |
Particularly as Labour are under the impression they can wn outright (which I think highly unlikely for Scottish reasons) and the LibDems believe they'll pick up more seats (with greater cause). The only reason they haven't already gone for it is the Article 50 extension issue. [Post edited 23 Oct 2019 9:49]
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:55 - Oct 23 with 3144 views | Herbivore |
They've been electioneering for the past few months with the drip feeding of 'Downing Street source' snippets to the press. The press has uncritically reported so much Tory propaganda, much of it untrue, all because the journalists like to think they have privileged access. They are being used as tools of an insidious propaganda machine. [Post edited 23 Oct 2019 10:07]
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:58 - Oct 23 with 3126 views | StokieBlue |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:48 - Oct 23 by Guthrum |
Particularly as Labour are under the impression they can wn outright (which I think highly unlikely for Scottish reasons) and the LibDems believe they'll pick up more seats (with greater cause). The only reason they haven't already gone for it is the Article 50 extension issue. [Post edited 23 Oct 2019 9:49]
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I don't see how Labour can win - Boris can campaign on the fact he got a deal agreed but it was stalled (rightly) by parliament. It will play well to his and brexit party supporters I am sure.
Labour have flip-flopped so much on Brexit I think it's very unclear to the general public exactly where they stand (Labour supporters will dispute that) and that will cost them.
Hung parliament again looks most likely with the Lib Dems having more seats - not entirely sure how it solves anything really.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:11 - Oct 23 with 3089 views | ElephantintheRoom |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:58 - Oct 23 by StokieBlue |
I don't see how Labour can win - Boris can campaign on the fact he got a deal agreed but it was stalled (rightly) by parliament. It will play well to his and brexit party supporters I am sure.
Labour have flip-flopped so much on Brexit I think it's very unclear to the general public exactly where they stand (Labour supporters will dispute that) and that will cost them.
Hung parliament again looks most likely with the Lib Dems having more seats - not entirely sure how it solves anything really.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197
SB |
Conspiracy theorists will point to the foresight of the Speaker resigning effective October 31st..... leaving him free to be PM of a government of national unity.
There is very little incentive for opposition parties (other than SNP) in holding an election now for the simple reason that they are in effect in control of parliament - with a bigger majority than the tories are forecast to win IF there was to be a general election. |  |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:19 - Oct 23 with 3056 views | manchego |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:58 - Oct 23 by StokieBlue |
I don't see how Labour can win - Boris can campaign on the fact he got a deal agreed but it was stalled (rightly) by parliament. It will play well to his and brexit party supporters I am sure.
Labour have flip-flopped so much on Brexit I think it's very unclear to the general public exactly where they stand (Labour supporters will dispute that) and that will cost them.
Hung parliament again looks most likely with the Lib Dems having more seats - not entirely sure how it solves anything really.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197
SB |
An election won't solve anything. |  | | |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:19 - Oct 23 with 3058 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:35 - Oct 23 by NotSure |
December 1910 was the last one, which the Liberals won.
Liberals obviously like cold weather! |
The Mail reader's won't be let out of their care homes if it's a bit chilly  |  |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:22 - Oct 23 with 3046 views | Guthrum |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:58 - Oct 23 by StokieBlue |
I don't see how Labour can win - Boris can campaign on the fact he got a deal agreed but it was stalled (rightly) by parliament. It will play well to his and brexit party supporters I am sure.
Labour have flip-flopped so much on Brexit I think it's very unclear to the general public exactly where they stand (Labour supporters will dispute that) and that will cost them.
Hung parliament again looks most likely with the Lib Dems having more seats - not entirely sure how it solves anything really.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197
SB |
On a more basic level, in 2005 and 2010, Labour took 41 seats in Scotland. In 2015 they lost 40 of those to the SNP. They managed to get 6 more back in 2017, but that still leaves a deficit of 34 seats to just get back to where they were under Gordon Brown.
34 seats they are unlikely to win back from the SNP, whose 2015 surge has receded more to the advantage of the Conservatives and LibDems than Labour. Milliband and Corbyn have already done much to repair the damage of 2010 in England (gaining 56 to offset the 87 seats lost - some permanently to boundary changes), so it's difficult to see where the leeway is to gain an outright majority. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:23 - Oct 23 with 3039 views | Herbivore |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:58 - Oct 23 by StokieBlue |
I don't see how Labour can win - Boris can campaign on the fact he got a deal agreed but it was stalled (rightly) by parliament. It will play well to his and brexit party supporters I am sure.
Labour have flip-flopped so much on Brexit I think it's very unclear to the general public exactly where they stand (Labour supporters will dispute that) and that will cost them.
Hung parliament again looks most likely with the Lib Dems having more seats - not entirely sure how it solves anything really.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197
SB |
It'll be interesting to see what the Brexit Party does, and whether they stick to their principles (lol) and become the party of no deal and disrupt the Tory vote or whether fthey retreat into their shell and try to help the Tories win a majority. I suspect it'll ultimately be the latter.
It's a tough election to call, Boris will have cemented Tory support but he's done nothing to reach out to anyone else. They'll lose seats in Scotland so will need to make gains elsewhere just to stand still. I expect them to win big in their strongholds but can they gain enough seats to win a majority? Not sure. Plus Boris is a terrible public speaker and will look bad on the campaign trail, especially when faced with any scrutiny. Corbyn is a better campaigner and has form for closing big poll gaps during an election campaign.
There's a real danger we end up in a similarly messy position to now with nobody gaining clear support from the public. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:24 - Oct 23 with 3030 views | Ryorry |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:35 - Oct 23 by NotSure |
December 1910 was the last one, which the Liberals won.
Liberals obviously like cold weather! |
You never know, the various Leicester seats might go from Labour stronghold to Libs if it's snowing! ;) |  |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:24 - Oct 23 with 3025 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:19 - Oct 23 by manchego |
An election won't solve anything. |
It should if someone can return a majority, as then the government will be able to pass legislation again. The trouble is, the chance of forming government is there's a hung parliament is probably complicated by the Brexit question.
It's not the right way to address what we should do about Brexit though imo. It shouldn't be used as a proxy referendum, even if that's how it's likely to be viewed. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:25 - Oct 23 with 3023 views | jaykay |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 09:58 - Oct 23 by StokieBlue |
I don't see how Labour can win - Boris can campaign on the fact he got a deal agreed but it was stalled (rightly) by parliament. It will play well to his and brexit party supporters I am sure.
Labour have flip-flopped so much on Brexit I think it's very unclear to the general public exactly where they stand (Labour supporters will dispute that) and that will cost them.
Hung parliament again looks most likely with the Lib Dems having more seats - not entirely sure how it solves anything really.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197
SB |
did boris vote against mays deal ? so if he did will that be thrown at him. not seen anything about boris's deal apart from moving the irish border. which i believe if may had done that the right wing tory press, the e.r.g. would have torn may to pieces.
betrayal of ulster would have been the minor headline. but as boris has done this it's genius |  |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:28 - Oct 23 with 3012 views | StokieBlue |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:25 - Oct 23 by jaykay |
did boris vote against mays deal ? so if he did will that be thrown at him. not seen anything about boris's deal apart from moving the irish border. which i believe if may had done that the right wing tory press, the e.r.g. would have torn may to pieces.
betrayal of ulster would have been the minor headline. but as boris has done this it's genius |
All pretty irrelevant. It will play well to the people it needs to and that in turn will help him at the ballot box.
Labour are the ones in danger it would seem, as Guthers pointed out they are unlikely to regain Scotland and the dithering on Brexit from JC might mean the Lib Dems take some seats from them.
It'll be one big mess again after the votes are counted.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:33 - Oct 23 with 3009 views | Guthrum |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:11 - Oct 23 by ElephantintheRoom |
Conspiracy theorists will point to the foresight of the Speaker resigning effective October 31st..... leaving him free to be PM of a government of national unity.
There is very little incentive for opposition parties (other than SNP) in holding an election now for the simple reason that they are in effect in control of parliament - with a bigger majority than the tories are forecast to win IF there was to be a general election. |
While your second paragraph is absolutely true, as long as Labour convince themselves they can win, that trumps tactical advantage and hard realism. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:49 - Oct 23 with 2988 views | Guthrum |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:28 - Oct 23 by StokieBlue |
All pretty irrelevant. It will play well to the people it needs to and that in turn will help him at the ballot box.
Labour are the ones in danger it would seem, as Guthers pointed out they are unlikely to regain Scotland and the dithering on Brexit from JC might mean the Lib Dems take some seats from them.
It'll be one big mess again after the votes are counted.
SB |
I could easily see a hefty collapse for Labour. Brexit vacillation, infighting, the antisemitism scandal, perceptions of Corbyn, a supposedly hard-left economic approach all being significant issues. The problem of the EU will drown out Austerity, Labour's strongest card. Johnson might not be so feeble as May on the campaign trail.
Plus they have to lok over their shoulder at the LibDems, who may strip Leaver votes from them and attract more moderate left wingers. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:06 - Oct 23 with 2962 views | jaykay |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:28 - Oct 23 by StokieBlue |
All pretty irrelevant. It will play well to the people it needs to and that in turn will help him at the ballot box.
Labour are the ones in danger it would seem, as Guthers pointed out they are unlikely to regain Scotland and the dithering on Brexit from JC might mean the Lib Dems take some seats from them.
It'll be one big mess again after the votes are counted.
SB |
you can't say the people will be played. or is that the nicer version ,of when people on here were pulled up for calling brexiteers thick | |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:07 - Oct 23 with 2957 views | manchego |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:24 - Oct 23 by Swansea_Blue |
It should if someone can return a majority, as then the government will be able to pass legislation again. The trouble is, the chance of forming government is there's a hung parliament is probably complicated by the Brexit question.
It's not the right way to address what we should do about Brexit though imo. It shouldn't be used as a proxy referendum, even if that's how it's likely to be viewed. |
That's the problem.
If it's hung again we are nowhere. And it's extremely likely to be so.
A General Election with Brexit bundled up with all the other issues ( NHS, schools, police etc etc ) will be a mess.
If the party I like on policy doesn't reflect my view on Brexit what do I do ?
I could be all Tory but hate Brexit.
I could be all Labour but want Brexit without confirmatory referendum. | | | |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:08 - Oct 23 with 2955 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:07 - Oct 23 by manchego |
That's the problem.
If it's hung again we are nowhere. And it's extremely likely to be so.
A General Election with Brexit bundled up with all the other issues ( NHS, schools, police etc etc ) will be a mess.
If the party I like on policy doesn't reflect my view on Brexit what do I do ?
I could be all Tory but hate Brexit.
I could be all Labour but want Brexit without confirmatory referendum. |
Yep, completely agree it's not the way to solve a binary question. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:13 - Oct 23 with 2941 views | Swansea_Blue |
...is fake news. We're there now with the States - blatant propaganda pumped out for the core support.
For those who haven't been following (why not?), it didn't 'pass', it only went through the second reading - it will have to go through the Lords, potential amendments and then a third reading successfully before it's "passed".
Johnson paused the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. He's delaying it from progressing.
Oh, and it's Boris'. Not Boris's. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:14 - Oct 23 with 2933 views | Guthrum |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:06 - Oct 23 by jaykay |
you can't say the people will be played. or is that the nicer version ,of when people on here were pulled up for calling brexiteers thick |
Humans respond to well-presented propaganda. That's just psychology, nothing to do with being thick.
After all, it's only the same basis as advertising. Even the clever are susceptible to that.
Skilled people can manipulate that public psychology to favour their own ends, be that votes or products. | |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:15 - Oct 23 with 2923 views | StokieBlue |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:06 - Oct 23 by jaykay |
you can't say the people will be played. or is that the nicer version ,of when people on here were pulled up for calling brexiteers thick |
I didn't say that. I said it will play well to a set of voters - perhaps read more carefully?
It's no different to saying that JC putting renationalisation in his manifesto will play will to a set of voters.
You seem to be looking for offence where there is none.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 11:18 - Oct 23 with 2903 views | manchego |
| Boris/Cummins strategy.... on 10:23 - Oct 23 by Herbivore |
It'll be interesting to see what the Brexit Party does, and whether they stick to their principles (lol) and become the party of no deal and disrupt the Tory vote or whether fthey retreat into their shell and try to help the Tories win a majority. I suspect it'll ultimately be the latter.
It's a tough election to call, Boris will have cemented Tory support but he's done nothing to reach out to anyone else. They'll lose seats in Scotland so will need to make gains elsewhere just to stand still. I expect them to win big in their strongholds but can they gain enough seats to win a majority? Not sure. Plus Boris is a terrible public speaker and will look bad on the campaign trail, especially when faced with any scrutiny. Corbyn is a better campaigner and has form for closing big poll gaps during an election campaign.
There's a real danger we end up in a similarly messy position to now with nobody gaining clear support from the public. |
Tories love Boris. It doesn't matter about his bluster and lies. He'll keep Tory votes fairly strong. He doesn't do shame or embarrassment and they love that. Tories will find the magic money tree and campaign on cake and jam for everyone.
Corbyn will get humped. The Tories won't campaign anywhere nearly as bad as the last time.
Lib Dems will take a lot of Lab seats by default.
No Tories in Scotland.
Small Tory majority. | | | |
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