| Interesting XG stats 09:47 - Mar 30 with 3187 views | CokeIsKey |
I was looking through various teams' XG stats in league 1 over the last 5 years (when the data first became available) and it shows how good this team really is.
From the 120 teams over the last 5 league 1 seasons, we have the highest XG out of anyone, and the lowest XG against. We are the only team to average an XG against that is below 1, and the only team to average an XG above 2 apart from Barnsley 18/19, with our XG still being 0.13 above them.
https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-one/xg
Which is why I think it is ridiculous for Plymouth and Wednesday fans to write us off just because of our run-in. The stats show that we are miles better than them and the XG difference of us vs our next opponents is much higher than the XG difference between them and their next opponents.
As we've learned from Wednesday's recent form, a team that succeeds off luck and good finishing cannot sustain that success forever, and I have no doubt that Plymouth will drop more points than us over the next few games. They need to get lucky every time in order to stay ahead of us, whereas we just need to get lucky once.
COYB
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| Interesting XG stats on 09:52 - Mar 30 with 3110 views | NthQldITFC |
Barnsley are way down that table - they've been fluking it big time. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Interesting XG stats on 10:02 - Mar 30 with 3062 views | Rozz |
Underperforming your XG isn't necessarily a positive, but it's a good indication that we're creative and threatening in more games than anyone else. I also think we're a different prospect post-January additions, so in theory should be well placed to outperform these stats over the remaining games.
It should give us every confidence going into some tough tests. Having watched Barnsley and Wednesday twice each this week (admittedly not in their best performances) I don't think we have anyone to fear but ourselves. |  | | |
| Interesting XG stats on 10:44 - Mar 30 with 2911 views | J2BLUE |
I think teams are looking at us and thinking we're having a good run rather than this is the new normal for us.
They might be right but I am confident Luongo, Broadhead and Hirst settling in have taken us to another level.
Anything can happen but I really think we will get the job done from here.
Plymouth seem especially dismissive of us which is amazing. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 11:26 - Mar 30 with 2752 views | Illinoisblue |
| Interesting XG stats on 10:44 - Mar 30 by J2BLUE |
I think teams are looking at us and thinking we're having a good run rather than this is the new normal for us.
They might be right but I am confident Luongo, Broadhead and Hirst settling in have taken us to another level.
Anything can happen but I really think we will get the job done from here.
Plymouth seem especially dismissive of us which is amazing. |
It feels as if the 4 new signings in January have improved us by 10-15% or so. An edge which will hopefully reap dividends. I pray for top two but if it has to be playoffs there’s no reason to fear any team. Although this being L1 the risk of being S5ithoused or getting robbed by a terrible ref is always a fear. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 11:32 - Mar 30 with 2702 views | Bent_double |
| Interesting XG stats on 10:44 - Mar 30 by J2BLUE |
I think teams are looking at us and thinking we're having a good run rather than this is the new normal for us.
They might be right but I am confident Luongo, Broadhead and Hirst settling in have taken us to another level.
Anything can happen but I really think we will get the job done from here.
Plymouth seem especially dismissive of us which is amazing. |
Exactly this.
As much as our poor run earlier in the season was annoying, it was just that, a poor run - every team has them, and I'm glad we've got ours out of the way, whilst SW are clearly having theirs at the worst possible time, and hopefully Plymouth will have theirs soon. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 12:09 - Mar 30 with 2558 views | mrfixit426 |
| Interesting XG stats on 11:32 - Mar 30 by Bent_double |
Exactly this.
As much as our poor run earlier in the season was annoying, it was just that, a poor run - every team has them, and I'm glad we've got ours out of the way, whilst SW are clearly having theirs at the worst possible time, and hopefully Plymouth will have theirs soon. |
Even during our poor run , the stats were still very good.
Added to that we've only lost four all season, and been outplayed on maybe three occasions. First half against Bolton on the opening day, 30 mins v Argyle and that horror show for 25 mins against Wednesday.
Honestly and without bias, I think we are the best team in the division. We've just been a little lacklustre on some occasions, and we always seem to get punished for that. I don't recall us playing badly and winning. |  | | |
| Interesting XG stats on 12:12 - Mar 30 with 2552 views | textbackup |
| Interesting XG stats on 11:26 - Mar 30 by Illinoisblue |
It feels as if the 4 new signings in January have improved us by 10-15% or so. An edge which will hopefully reap dividends. I pray for top two but if it has to be playoffs there’s no reason to fear any team. Although this being L1 the risk of being S5ithoused or getting robbed by a terrible ref is always a fear. |
IMO we’ve gone beyond being able to be sh*thoused, or a poor ref decision to cost us.
We’ve really pushed on, and look so much better |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 13:20 - Mar 30 with 2347 views | Illinoisblue |
| Interesting XG stats on 12:12 - Mar 30 by textbackup |
IMO we’ve gone beyond being able to be sh*thoused, or a poor ref decision to cost us.
We’ve really pushed on, and look so much better |
I keep telling myself we’ve mostly played rubbish teams on our recent run but that maybe downplays the achievement of not conceding in 7 and winning 6 on the bounce. They might be “easy” games but Wednesday taking 1 point from FGR and Cheltenham shows it’s not as simple as that. And yes, we look so much better now the new recruits have settled in. I’m cautiously optimistic we’re not going to fk this up. | |
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| Interesting XG stats on 13:27 - Mar 30 with 2283 views | Herbivore |
| Interesting XG stats on 13:20 - Mar 30 by Illinoisblue |
I keep telling myself we’ve mostly played rubbish teams on our recent run but that maybe downplays the achievement of not conceding in 7 and winning 6 on the bounce. They might be “easy” games but Wednesday taking 1 point from FGR and Cheltenham shows it’s not as simple as that. And yes, we look so much better now the new recruits have settled in. I’m cautiously optimistic we’re not going to fk this up. |
We also handled Bolton quite convincingly and their home record is very impressive. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 13:33 - Mar 30 with 2262 views | Asa |
Usually I'm very pessimistic. To the point that we could have Man City's squad in the Premier League and I'd be saying I think we have a chance of staying up.
But this feels different. It takes something for me to say I genuinely believe we are comfortably now the best side in the division. Perhaps we have been all along and it was just the odd break we didn't get that the others did - particularly in games against us.
With the investment perhaps we should be. But we have seen with early Marcus Evans, Everton, Derby, plenty of others over the years that on the field achievements are directly linear with off the field spend.
We've played 37 games and not been outplayed ONCE. 4 defeats all season, In 37 matches! We lost to Lincoln in a game where we had 10 times as many chances. Lost to Wycombe where we had 5 times as many.
Lost to Plymouth in an even contest where we hit the bar in the last second and lost to a goal I believe should never have stood. Plenty of others disagree but you cannot simply plough into Chaplin like that. We lost to Oxford in farcical conditions.
We may have lacked luck or a killer instinct over a period of the season, had a blip as key injuries affected one area of the side, and therefore maybe we haven't been the best team over the 37 games (which the table would suggest given it's points that count). For all the outrageous XG and metrics, we have less points than two other sides after all.
But I do believe with the January additions that we have gone up a level beyond these sides and feel weirdly confident. Anything could happen. Lose Saturday and we could be 7 off Wednesday again and 4 behind Plymouth, but I feel weirdly calm about just how good this side is which goes against being an Ipswich fan!
Under Burley we were often in the best 2 or 3 sides. I do feel now we are the very best and there's a gap. The question is over 9 games whether we can be that much better than the other two because even though I think we are that much better - they have shown that they can easily be much better than the teams they are do to play and ensure we can't make up that gap.
If we don't go up, I have every faith that we will do next year and that we will hit the levels we have hit and beyond over the whole season, not just 80% of it as has been the case this season. Even then, if just half the incredibly bad refereeing decisions that have gone against us had gone our way, we'd be top of the league currently. Of that there is no doubt in my mind.
What I do know is that we are now going to win the league, go up with games to spare, clinch promotion on the last day, have a Wembley appearance or worst case, two epic playoff matches, one of which at a full Portman Road.
Whatever happens, it's the stuff you dream of as a football fan. Things we have been utterly starved of. Fixtures with meaning. Every time the goal sound went off on my goal alerts app on Sunday, Tuesday and last night my heart sunk. Fortunately it was almost exclusively good news when I checked.
But this is football. Finally. To not only dream and hope. But to feel confident that the pieces are in place to make that dream a reality. [Post edited 30 Mar 2023 13:42]
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| Interesting XG stats on 13:35 - Mar 30 with 2238 views | NthQldITFC |
^ What he said. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Interesting XG stats on 14:10 - Mar 30 with 2089 views | HighgateBlue |
XG is only one metric. If we fail to go up this season, we can't appeal to some authority to let us up anyway, on the basis that we had a good XG. We are in the business of trying to win games, and thereby get points to put us in the best league position possible. XG is not even worth what goal difference is. So it's certainly not the case that XG shows us "how good this team really is", as though the actual results were mistaken.
The other thing about XG is that it's not even entirely objective. Assessing the quality of a chance is not yet an exact science, if it ever will be.
There's so much more to being a good football team. Not least not conceding unfortunate goals on the break when we've been battering the opposition.
No other team should be writing us off. We're in excellent form, offensively and defensively. But telling them they shouldn't write us off because we create chances that we're not very good at converting is not the best argument.
Our form has markedly improved in the last couple of months, and yet our XG stats have been amazing all season. That just points to the uselessness of the stat. That, and Barnsley's position in the league table. |  | | |
| Interesting XG stats on 15:01 - Mar 30 with 1957 views | textbackup |
| Interesting XG stats on 13:27 - Mar 30 by Herbivore |
We also handled Bolton quite convincingly and their home record is very impressive. |
That was the one that made me sit up and think, ok, ok then, this is where we are | |
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| Interesting XG stats on 15:23 - Mar 30 with 1871 views | Darth_Koont |
Not sure if we’re better at taking our chances or we’re creating more or better ones but in recent weeks we certainly seem to score at the right time.
We’ve scored a lot of early goals which forces teams to come at us a bit more. And we’ve scored goals to capitalise on our own good spells in games or to halt the opposition when they start getting back into the game. Throw in Walton’s penalty save, his quality keeping more generally and a solid defence and it’s easy to see why we’ve been on this run as we’ve always stayed in control.
Despite generally the same quality of play, that knack was missing from us for most of the season. I doubt we can maintain the same level of control till the end of the season – and will be interesting to see how we respond to a setback – but it feels like we may have got over some mental/confidence hurdle. Here’s hoping anyway because given how the top 4 have bunched up the 2 teams who get automatic promotion will be the sides who can push through to the end and chisel out results. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 15:34 - Mar 30 with 1822 views | pointofblue |
| Interesting XG stats on 09:52 - Mar 30 by NthQldITFC |
Barnsley are way down that table - they've been fluking it big time. |
Plymouth aren’t that much better. We were similar at the start of 20/21 and 21/22 under Lambert - every shot seemed to go in which propelled us to the top of the table. Both times it caught up with us; the same cannot be said of Plymouth and Barnsley to date. Maybe it’s going to but perhaps it won’t.
To be fair, I’d much prefer Plymouth and Barnsley to be promoted over Wednesday, Derby, Peterborough or Portsmouth. Plymouth because I think this year could be the one for them, and if they fail they’ll drop back to where they were last year at the very least, relying on 6th and the lottery of the play offs. Barnsley because, despite their understandable saltiness over the Leigh situation, I still like them for their reaction to us winning in the 2000 play off final. | |
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| Interesting XG stats on 15:44 - Mar 30 with 1760 views | clive_baker |
I've never been entirely convinced at what is and isn't classed as an XG. If 16 of the 24 teams are scoring less than expected, and the sum of that column is a negative to the tune of 65 goals across the division so far, then I would question if the XG metric is too high. The best part of 1,000 games should be a large enough sample where you don't end up with XG over 5% higher than actual goals across the division.
That said, directionally it's probably right in that we're creating more chances, on average, than other sides. I genuinely think we're the best side in the league, but whether the table reflects that come the end of the season is another question. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 15:54 - Mar 30 with 1707 views | Sawtrich |
A lot of these metrics are only a rough guide. It comes down to game situation as well. If a team is 1-0 up in a tricky away game from their only shot then why are they going to risk too much trying to get another goal when they know a clean sheet gets them the points. They won't care what their XG ends up being.
We're heading into April with the top 3 all averaging over two ppg and Barnsley not far off in fourth. You don't get that sort of points tally this deep in the season without having plenty about you. It's going to be tough but we've got a great chance. |  | | |
| Interesting XG stats on 18:02 - Mar 30 with 1554 views | NthQldITFC |
A couple of extracts from that data:
Position in a table ordered by beating xG (i.e. actual goals scored is higher than xG)
- 1 Barnsley
- 2 Plymouth
- 9 Bolton
- 12 Wednesday
- 15 Derby
- 19 Town
Position in a table ordered by beating xGA (i.e. actual goals conceded is lower than xG)
- 3 Bolton
- 4 Wednesday
- 8 Plymouth
- 10 Barnsley
- 13 Derby
- 14 Town
So, if we assume anything between top 6 and bottom 6 is 'average' for the division, in very simplistic terms, perhaps over-simplistic:
Barnsley and Plymouth have been clinical or lucky at finishing, whilst Town have been non-clinical or unlucky.
And Bolton and Wednesday have been good or lucky at the back.
Derby, like Town not really outstanding in either department, but obviously from a significantly lower 'expected' base. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Interesting XG stats on 20:30 - Mar 30 with 1420 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Interesting XG stats on 13:35 - Mar 30 by NthQldITFC |
^ What he said. |
I can't bring myself to read Asa's post. I'm still recovering from their stars aligning comment. I'll just upvote it a pretend I read it. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 20:38 - Mar 30 with 1403 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Interesting XG stats on 10:02 - Mar 30 by Rozz |
Underperforming your XG isn't necessarily a positive, but it's a good indication that we're creative and threatening in more games than anyone else. I also think we're a different prospect post-January additions, so in theory should be well placed to outperform these stats over the remaining games.
It should give us every confidence going into some tough tests. Having watched Barnsley and Wednesday twice each this week (admittedly not in their best performances) I don't think we have anyone to fear but ourselves. |
I only see it as a positive. I’d have thought that individual quality is the reason we underperform against XG, and that’s fixable through new signings (as you say, look at the difference Luongo and Broady have made). Getting into those good attacking and defensive positions is a really solid base that could carry us through the leagues. |  |
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| Interesting XG stats on 22:24 - Mar 30 with 1249 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
The biggest issue I have with those stats is that the team with the best xG stats does not always get promoted.
We need to make sure we get the points albeit having great xG and scoring plenty of goals is great entertainment too. |  |
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