| Permutations 11:22 - Apr 15 with 3096 views | NorthLondonBlue2 |
So, if my maths is correct, this is the state of play and the maximum points each side can get (even though Southampton make this an artificial exercise):
Team Current pts Games left Max points
Ipswich 89 3 98 (9)
Leicester 88 4 100 (12)
Leeds 87 3 96 (9)
Soton 81 5 96 (15)
So, essentially if we win our remaining 3 games, we’re up no matter what. If Leicester lose one and we win all ours, we’re champions. If Leeds or Southampton lose one, we can afford to win 2 and draw 1 and still go up. |  | | |  |
| Permutations on 11:40 - Apr 15 with 2964 views | Kievthegreat |
There is nightmare scenario where all 4 teams could end up on 94 points. |  | | |
| Permutations on 15:22 - Apr 15 with 2586 views | Pinewoodblue |
Southampton have to play both Leicester and Leeds..If Southampton win against one and draw against the other then none of them can win every game
Things could look a lot different before we play again |  |
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| Permutations on 16:42 - Apr 15 with 2488 views | SmithersJones |
Not quite I don’t think. “If Leeds or Southampton lose one we can afford to win 2 and draw 1 and still go up”. Change “or” to “and” and you’re correct. If Southampton lose one but Leeds and Leicester win all theirs then we need 3 wins (unless we tonk someone). | | | |
| Permutations on 17:11 - Apr 15 with 2384 views | OldFart71 |
I'm no expert and to be honest although I won £100 on a free football predictions game a few months ago and have missed out twice on doing similar by getting 3 out of 4 correct I do have strong feelings that the table after all games will be as such. Leicester on 98, Town on 93 and Leeds and Saints on 91. | | | |
| Permutations on 17:47 - Apr 15 with 2317 views | bazza |
| Permutations on 11:40 - Apr 15 by Kievthegreat |
There is nightmare scenario where all 4 teams could end up on 94 points. |
Two weeks of calculating the final table in my head, even when asleep , is going to be a nightmare |  | | |
| Permutations on 17:55 - Apr 15 with 2274 views | MK1 |
Southampton have to play both Leeds and Leicester, so points are going to be dropped somewhere. I actually hope that Southampton beat them both and go up with us. Leeds play that lot up the road and beat them, WBA beat Leicester. WBA beat Leeds in the final.
Leicester and Leeds hit with -20 points for next season.
I can but hope. |  | | |
| Permutations on 20:03 - Apr 15 with 2061 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
The simplest way to look at it is this.
Over 3 matches we need to do no worse than 1 point less than Leeds. In the unlikely event that Southampton do 7 points better than Leeds (albeit with 2 games in hand and playing them), we would need to do no worse than 7 pt worse than Southampton too.
It is in Ipswich and Leicester's hands and will be much clearer when we play next and the situation will be somewhere between:
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
Ipswich 89 3 98 (9)
Leicester 88 2 94 (6)
Leeds 87 1 90 (3)
Soton 84 1 87 (3)
and
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
Ipswich 89 3 98 (9)
Leicester 94 2 100 (6) Or 92 2 98 (6) with Soton on 91 1 94 (3) Or even 91 2 97 (6) with Soton on 93 1 96 (6)
Leeds 93 1 96 (3)
Soton 90 1 93 (3) NB Soton and Leeds can't both get this as playing each other
So, at worst we could be 4th place needing to win our last 3 matches to guarantee promotion. However, we also could still top needing 2 points from our last 3 to guarantee it! I would be confident it will be something in between those extremes. I reckon 4 points from our final 3 matches will be enough but it will be clearer by the time we next play. |  |
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| Permutations on 21:11 - Apr 15 with 1897 views | Mach_foreignBlue |
This time next week if Leeds fail to beat Middlesbrough it will have been a big boost for us. Should that happen then 6 points for us in the 3 games will be enough. |  | | |
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| FTAO PHIL on 21:47 - Apr 15 with 1820 views | peterleeblue |
Phil can this by a sticky so we can put all these scenarios in one place as the other fixtures play out over the next 2 weeks? |  | | |
| Permutations on 21:48 - Apr 15 with 1817 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Permutations on 20:03 - Apr 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The simplest way to look at it is this.
Over 3 matches we need to do no worse than 1 point less than Leeds. In the unlikely event that Southampton do 7 points better than Leeds (albeit with 2 games in hand and playing them), we would need to do no worse than 7 pt worse than Southampton too.
It is in Ipswich and Leicester's hands and will be much clearer when we play next and the situation will be somewhere between:
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
Ipswich 89 3 98 (9)
Leicester 88 2 94 (6)
Leeds 87 1 90 (3)
Soton 84 1 87 (3)
and
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
Ipswich 89 3 98 (9)
Leicester 94 2 100 (6) Or 92 2 98 (6) with Soton on 91 1 94 (3) Or even 91 2 97 (6) with Soton on 93 1 96 (6)
Leeds 93 1 96 (3)
Soton 90 1 93 (3) NB Soton and Leeds can't both get this as playing each other
So, at worst we could be 4th place needing to win our last 3 matches to guarantee promotion. However, we also could still top needing 2 points from our last 3 to guarantee it! I would be confident it will be something in between those extremes. I reckon 4 points from our final 3 matches will be enough but it will be clearer by the time we next play. |
To paraphrase:
It is totally in our hands now, and it still will be when we next play.
We don't know which of the other three teams are the biggest threats, but we will have a better idea of that when we next play. | | | |
| Permutations on 21:56 - Apr 15 with 1771 views | SmithersJones |
| Permutations on 21:11 - Apr 15 by Mach_foreignBlue |
This time next week if Leeds fail to beat Middlesbrough it will have been a big boost for us. Should that happen then 6 points for us in the 3 games will be enough. |
No, that’s not the case.
Two wins would give us 95 points, enough to ensure we finish above Leeds. But Southampton could still get 96 if they win all their games, and Leicester would get 97 if they win all theirs except the one against Saints. | | | |
| Permutations on 22:00 - Apr 15 with 1732 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Permutations on 21:56 - Apr 15 by SmithersJones |
No, that’s not the case.
Two wins would give us 95 points, enough to ensure we finish above Leeds. But Southampton could still get 96 if they win all their games, and Leicester would get 97 if they win all theirs except the one against Saints. |
Whilst not impossible, it would be quite something for Southampton to win all theirs including against Leicester AND Leicester to win all apart from that match. | |
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| Permutations on 22:23 - Apr 15 with 1624 views | SmithersJones |
| Permutations on 22:00 - Apr 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Whilst not impossible, it would be quite something for Southampton to win all theirs including against Leicester AND Leicester to win all apart from that match. |
That’s certainly true. At the moment there are myriad permutations. By the time we next play Southampton and Leeds will only have one game left, against each other, so things should be clearer. | | | |
| Permutations on 04:35 - Apr 16 with 1369 views | urbanblue |
I feel that given the way the season has gone it will go to the last game and there will be so many permutations of different results affecting who goes up my head will explode ... |  | | |
| Permutations on 06:12 - Apr 16 with 1322 views | textbackup |
| Permutations on 20:03 - Apr 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The simplest way to look at it is this.
Over 3 matches we need to do no worse than 1 point less than Leeds. In the unlikely event that Southampton do 7 points better than Leeds (albeit with 2 games in hand and playing them), we would need to do no worse than 7 pt worse than Southampton too.
It is in Ipswich and Leicester's hands and will be much clearer when we play next and the situation will be somewhere between:
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
Ipswich 89 3 98 (9)
Leicester 88 2 94 (6)
Leeds 87 1 90 (3)
Soton 84 1 87 (3)
and
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
Ipswich 89 3 98 (9)
Leicester 94 2 100 (6) Or 92 2 98 (6) with Soton on 91 1 94 (3) Or even 91 2 97 (6) with Soton on 93 1 96 (6)
Leeds 93 1 96 (3)
Soton 90 1 93 (3) NB Soton and Leeds can't both get this as playing each other
So, at worst we could be 4th place needing to win our last 3 matches to guarantee promotion. However, we also could still top needing 2 points from our last 3 to guarantee it! I would be confident it will be something in between those extremes. I reckon 4 points from our final 3 matches will be enough but it will be clearer by the time we next play. |
The form we are in, I just don’t see us winning all 3, I’m not sure many people could hand on heart say they believe we could (at the this moment in time)
We might however come out absolutely rampant vs hull and show everyone who’s boss |  |
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| Permutations on 10:31 - Apr 16 with 1075 views | ibbleobble |
😂😂😂 this thread is brilliant. “Yeah but, no but….” | | | |
| Permutations on 10:44 - Apr 16 with 1026 views | baxterbasics |
| Permutations on 04:35 - Apr 16 by urbanblue |
I feel that given the way the season has gone it will go to the last game and there will be so many permutations of different results affecting who goes up my head will explode ... |
Even as the final whistle goes Vs Hudders we'll all be glued to our phones waiting on those confirmed results, trying to do the maths... nightmare  |  |
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| Permutations on 19:30 - Apr 16 with 700 views | lmfcblue |
| Permutations on 06:12 - Apr 16 by textbackup |
The form we are in, I just don’t see us winning all 3, I’m not sure many people could hand on heart say they believe we could (at the this moment in time)
We might however come out absolutely rampant vs hull and show everyone who’s boss |
I thought we played well in the last 2 games - fine margins with the results but the performances were there for me. | | | |
| Permutations on 19:32 - Apr 16 with 692 views | Dubtractor |
| Permutations on 19:30 - Apr 16 by lmfcblue |
I thought we played well in the last 2 games - fine margins with the results but the performances were there for me. |
Agreed. Watford wasn't brilliant, but we did enough to win comfortably over the 90 minutes, particularly in the first half. Bar the last 10 minutes when we probably overcommitted players forward, giving away chances on the break, I thought we were much the better team against Middlesborough.
After the Norwich game I was a bit worried, but the last 2 left me feeling confident about the run in. |  |
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| Permutations on 19:51 - Apr 16 with 614 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Permutations on 06:12 - Apr 16 by textbackup |
The form we are in, I just don’t see us winning all 3, I’m not sure many people could hand on heart say they believe we could (at the this moment in time)
We might however come out absolutely rampant vs hull and show everyone who’s boss |
I can't see any of the top 4 winning all of their matches. Any team that does will be promoted, I am sure. In a sense, having just 3 left makes that easier than for Leicester and Southampton.
I think 4 points will probably be enough. Win either of the away matches and we are certainly going to be very close to being there, especially if we don't lose the other and we haven't lost many all season. | |
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| Permutations on 20:15 - Apr 16 with 581 views | billlm |
| Permutations on 19:32 - Apr 16 by Dubtractor |
Agreed. Watford wasn't brilliant, but we did enough to win comfortably over the 90 minutes, particularly in the first half. Bar the last 10 minutes when we probably overcommitted players forward, giving away chances on the break, I thought we were much the better team against Middlesborough.
After the Norwich game I was a bit worried, but the last 2 left me feeling confident about the run in. |
I think we may just win all three, now that wouldn't surprise me,
Thought we were well energized for the boro match haven't seen that for a while, |  | | |
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