| Pens awarded by club 09:54 - Feb 25 with 2749 views | StokieBlue |
Whilst reading the Leicester forum linked in another post and hidden amongst the whinging about us scoring late goals I noticed one poster had said that Ipswich must be equally annoyed about the amount of penalties Leicester get as they were about our late goals/deflections.
He said they had 11 pens in the last 28 games which seem quite a high amount so thought I would compare it against the rest of the division:
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1 Leicester City - 11
2 Leeds United - 7
3 Sunderland AFC - 5
4 Middlesbrough FC - 4
5 Hull City - 4
6 Southampton FC - 4
7 Stoke City - 3
8 Birmingham City - 3
9 Norwich City - 3
10 Swansea City - 3
11 Bristol City - 3
12 Coventry City - 2
13 Millwall FC - 2
14 West Bromwich Albion - 2
15 Preston North End - 2
16 Cardiff City - 2
17 Ipswich Town - 2
18 Blackburn Rovers - 1
19 Huddersfield Town - 1
20 Rotherham United - 1
21 Plymouth Argyle - 1
22 Queens Park Rangers - 1
23 Watford FC - 1
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Looking at it, Ipswich seem to be around the norm for the number of pens we've had although in reality we will be in the opposition box a lot more than some of the teams in that bracket and thus statistically you'd expect us to have had more pens as there is simply more opportunity for fouls.
That might also explain why Leicester and Leeds have the most (they are often in the opposition box) but given our stats for that our similar, Leicester really shouldn't have had 5 times as many penalties as us.
Perhaps their is unconscious bias in the refereeing but just from the top of my head I can remember at least 3 penalties which were stonewalls on Hirst and haven't been given and that's just one player.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pens awarded by club on 09:58 - Feb 25 with 2687 views | Guthrum |
Interesting stats. Perhaps it's a function more of our players staying on their feet looking to shoot and/or get the rebounds? |  |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:01 - Feb 25 with 2662 views | StokieBlue |
| Pens awarded by club on 09:58 - Feb 25 by Guthrum |
Interesting stats. Perhaps it's a function more of our players staying on their feet looking to shoot and/or get the rebounds? |
Certainly could be something in that but I do think there is some bias (unconscious or not) in the refereeing and hence that's why we see Leicester and Leeds at the top.
For instance, in the first match of the season, Hirst was basically assaulted by their CB and the ref seemed to think it was fine to do that. I suspect other teams may have got a pen in the same situation.
This isn't a "sour grapes" analysis, more an insight into whether there is unconscious bias towards perceived "bigger clubs". Before VAR we used to see this a lot in the PL with Man United under Ferguson for instance.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:02 - Feb 25 with 2642 views | Herbivore |
Some of the penalties Leicester and Leeds have had ha e been soft as sh!te. They do both have more players who attack the penalty area at pace than we do so I'd expect them to get a decent number but we also enter the box (ooh err) an awful lot and are one of the most attacking sides in the division so it does seem rather anomalous. We've had a lot of good shouts where nothing has been given. |  |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:04 - Feb 25 with 2631 views | HighgateBlue |
| Pens awarded by club on 09:58 - Feb 25 by Guthrum |
Interesting stats. Perhaps it's a function more of our players staying on their feet looking to shoot and/or get the rebounds? |
I think that may be one factor. I think random chance may account for some of the difference, but maybe not much of it. Also I think Leeds and Leicester are more often bursting into the area, whereas we are often laying the ball back. I think for some reason you're more likely to get a decision go your way when you're coming at speed, and physical contact on you has more visually obvious results, whereas when you're Hirst-like player whose job is to be big and strong and often lay the ball back - a foul on him might not have such visually striking results.
But this is all generalised speculation. When there are actual real life examples of pens given and not given in our favour, there's almost always a diversity of views on whether it was correct or not. We have to acknowledge when things go our way unfairly too, like our first goal yesterday (incredible feet, Chappers!) which was definitely offside. I accept that the penalty stats are pretty stark though, at the top end. The mean average seems about 3, the median is 2, and we're getting 2, so it's not wildly out compared with the norm, but clearly Leeds and Leicester have been fortunate with some marginal calls. Hopefully they will revert towards the mean. If not, well, we're unlikely to face them in the playoffs at least. |  | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:06 - Feb 25 with 2612 views | LeoMuff |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:01 - Feb 25 by StokieBlue |
Certainly could be something in that but I do think there is some bias (unconscious or not) in the refereeing and hence that's why we see Leicester and Leeds at the top.
For instance, in the first match of the season, Hirst was basically assaulted by their CB and the ref seemed to think it was fine to do that. I suspect other teams may have got a pen in the same situation.
This isn't a "sour grapes" analysis, more an insight into whether there is unconscious bias towards perceived "bigger clubs". Before VAR we used to see this a lot in the PL with Man United under Ferguson for instance.
SB |
I often thought Hirst got very very little out of the refs, constantly being held when the ball was played up to him. Doesn’t seem the same for Moore. |  |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:06 - Feb 25 with 2607 views | redrickstuhaart |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:04 - Feb 25 by HighgateBlue |
I think that may be one factor. I think random chance may account for some of the difference, but maybe not much of it. Also I think Leeds and Leicester are more often bursting into the area, whereas we are often laying the ball back. I think for some reason you're more likely to get a decision go your way when you're coming at speed, and physical contact on you has more visually obvious results, whereas when you're Hirst-like player whose job is to be big and strong and often lay the ball back - a foul on him might not have such visually striking results.
But this is all generalised speculation. When there are actual real life examples of pens given and not given in our favour, there's almost always a diversity of views on whether it was correct or not. We have to acknowledge when things go our way unfairly too, like our first goal yesterday (incredible feet, Chappers!) which was definitely offside. I accept that the penalty stats are pretty stark though, at the top end. The mean average seems about 3, the median is 2, and we're getting 2, so it's not wildly out compared with the norm, but clearly Leeds and Leicester have been fortunate with some marginal calls. Hopefully they will revert towards the mean. If not, well, we're unlikely to face them in the playoffs at least. |
Yesterdays first goal was not "definitely offside". Quite the opposite. |  | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:07 - Feb 25 with 2594 views | Guthrum |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:01 - Feb 25 by StokieBlue |
Certainly could be something in that but I do think there is some bias (unconscious or not) in the refereeing and hence that's why we see Leicester and Leeds at the top.
For instance, in the first match of the season, Hirst was basically assaulted by their CB and the ref seemed to think it was fine to do that. I suspect other teams may have got a pen in the same situation.
This isn't a "sour grapes" analysis, more an insight into whether there is unconscious bias towards perceived "bigger clubs". Before VAR we used to see this a lot in the PL with Man United under Ferguson for instance.
SB |
Indeed, that list does give the impression of more "fashionable" - and recently in the Prem - clubs being toward the top.
With last Tuesday's game, was the penalty given against Jackson so much worse than when Broadhead was bundled over by their defender?
I also wonder if it's because we tend to work our way into the box quite often, rather than make individual runs which provoke last-ditch fouls from defenders.
Would be interesting to see the corresponding table of penalties against. | |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:10 - Feb 25 with 2570 views | StokieBlue |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:04 - Feb 25 by HighgateBlue |
I think that may be one factor. I think random chance may account for some of the difference, but maybe not much of it. Also I think Leeds and Leicester are more often bursting into the area, whereas we are often laying the ball back. I think for some reason you're more likely to get a decision go your way when you're coming at speed, and physical contact on you has more visually obvious results, whereas when you're Hirst-like player whose job is to be big and strong and often lay the ball back - a foul on him might not have such visually striking results.
But this is all generalised speculation. When there are actual real life examples of pens given and not given in our favour, there's almost always a diversity of views on whether it was correct or not. We have to acknowledge when things go our way unfairly too, like our first goal yesterday (incredible feet, Chappers!) which was definitely offside. I accept that the penalty stats are pretty stark though, at the top end. The mean average seems about 3, the median is 2, and we're getting 2, so it's not wildly out compared with the norm, but clearly Leeds and Leicester have been fortunate with some marginal calls. Hopefully they will revert towards the mean. If not, well, we're unlikely to face them in the playoffs at least. |
I don't think you can look at the mean and median in isolation like that. If you look at the other teams on 1 and 3 pens they will spend a lot less time in the opposition box and thus you need some form of weighted value if you want to directly compare teams in that way.
Certainly might be something in the point that running at speed into the box is more likely to get a penalty than being fouled from behind - it shouldn't be the case but probably is in the minds of some refs. Interestingly our last penalty given was Al-Hamadi running into the box at a decent speed.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:17 - Feb 25 with 2528 views | TractorCam |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:01 - Feb 25 by StokieBlue |
Certainly could be something in that but I do think there is some bias (unconscious or not) in the refereeing and hence that's why we see Leicester and Leeds at the top.
For instance, in the first match of the season, Hirst was basically assaulted by their CB and the ref seemed to think it was fine to do that. I suspect other teams may have got a pen in the same situation.
This isn't a "sour grapes" analysis, more an insight into whether there is unconscious bias towards perceived "bigger clubs". Before VAR we used to see this a lot in the PL with Man United under Ferguson for instance.
SB |
Ah yes, when he was about to smash it into an open goal for 3-0, that is probably the worst decision of the lot. |  |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:24 - Feb 25 with 2424 views | Churchman |
| Pens awarded by club on 09:58 - Feb 25 by Guthrum |
Interesting stats. Perhaps it's a function more of our players staying on their feet looking to shoot and/or get the rebounds? |
I think there’s a lot in this. Our players do by and large look to stay on their feet. If you take a player like Dewsbury-Hall he’s looking to dive at every opportunity. The Leicester and Leeds players look schooled in it. PL influence, I suppose.
That and add in unconscious bias towards what Refs see at the big, important clubs and there you have the ridiculous disparity between a team in third and the teams above and one below. |  | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:30 - Feb 25 with 2378 views | Pendejo |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:06 - Feb 25 by redrickstuhaart |
Yesterdays first goal was not "definitely offside". Quite the opposite. |
Agree
defender behind him on edge of 6 yard box is playing him on when ball was played |  |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:36 - Feb 25 with 2332 views | pointofblue |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:10 - Feb 25 by StokieBlue |
I don't think you can look at the mean and median in isolation like that. If you look at the other teams on 1 and 3 pens they will spend a lot less time in the opposition box and thus you need some form of weighted value if you want to directly compare teams in that way.
Certainly might be something in the point that running at speed into the box is more likely to get a penalty than being fouled from behind - it shouldn't be the case but probably is in the minds of some refs. Interestingly our last penalty given was Al-Hamadi running into the box at a decent speed.
SB |
Yeah, and it should have been a free kick rather than a penalty as initial contact was outside the box. Not that it really mattered. | |
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| Pens awarded by club on 10:56 - Feb 25 with 2252 views | Herbivore |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:36 - Feb 25 by pointofblue |
Yeah, and it should have been a free kick rather than a penalty as initial contact was outside the box. Not that it really mattered. |
Initial contact being outside the box doesn't matter if the offence continues within the box. | |
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| Pens awarded by club on 11:30 - Feb 25 with 2164 views | Sawtrich |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:06 - Feb 25 by redrickstuhaart |
Yesterdays first goal was not "definitely offside". Quite the opposite. |
Yes, see the great view of first goal thread. Birmingham fan filming from away seats confirms it is onside. |  | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 13:44 - Feb 25 with 1974 views | Trequartista |
Didn't realise that pathetic award for Rotherham was their first pen this season. |  |
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| Pens awarded by club on 16:08 - Feb 25 with 1812 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
I think you should for on that forum, start putting the cat amongst the pigeons and signing off with every post SB. As much as you sometimes annoy me think how much you’d annoy them, I’d pay to see it.
We should have had at least one penalty at Rotherham away and one at Huddersfield. Four would seem about right but no luck. Curious how many of Leeds came at home as that crowd can play a part. [Post edited 25 Feb 16:09]
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| Pens awarded by club on 16:12 - Feb 25 with 1783 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
Chappers being bundled over in the box yesterday was yet another definite penalty not given.
Hutchinson's one, not so much as the Scum keeper (can't bring myself to name him), looked to have got to the ball fractionally before. |  |
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| Pens awarded by club on 17:00 - Feb 25 with 1687 views | Vegtablue |
We're 5th for touches in the opposition penalty area, in the same company as Leicester. We're 18th for take-on attempts though, in the same company as Blackburn.
I know we should have had a few more penalties certainly, and I say that as someone who hates soft penalties in general, but I'd like a compilation video of Leicester's claims before coming to firm judgement on biases. Southampton had a lot of penalty appeals in the second half of their Huddersfield game and I was surprised to see the ref refuse them all tbh, even though none exceeded the 'seen them given' category in my eyes.
Players being felled while carrying the ball seem to receive penalties with more regularity than those who are jostling to receive it, have just received it or are involved in off-the-ball incidents (or handball). Are Leicester showing easier pictures to referees significantly more often?
I've no doubt we should be in 5+ territory. I'm just not sure if Leicester should be in 15+ territory. | | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 17:03 - Feb 25 with 1661 views | Wickets |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:01 - Feb 25 by StokieBlue |
Certainly could be something in that but I do think there is some bias (unconscious or not) in the refereeing and hence that's why we see Leicester and Leeds at the top.
For instance, in the first match of the season, Hirst was basically assaulted by their CB and the ref seemed to think it was fine to do that. I suspect other teams may have got a pen in the same situation.
This isn't a "sour grapes" analysis, more an insight into whether there is unconscious bias towards perceived "bigger clubs". Before VAR we used to see this a lot in the PL with Man United under Ferguson for instance.
SB |
Hirst at Rotherham! |  | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 17:03 - Feb 25 with 1661 views | Herbivore |
| Pens awarded by club on 17:00 - Feb 25 by Vegtablue |
We're 5th for touches in the opposition penalty area, in the same company as Leicester. We're 18th for take-on attempts though, in the same company as Blackburn.
I know we should have had a few more penalties certainly, and I say that as someone who hates soft penalties in general, but I'd like a compilation video of Leicester's claims before coming to firm judgement on biases. Southampton had a lot of penalty appeals in the second half of their Huddersfield game and I was surprised to see the ref refuse them all tbh, even though none exceeded the 'seen them given' category in my eyes.
Players being felled while carrying the ball seem to receive penalties with more regularity than those who are jostling to receive it, have just received it or are involved in off-the-ball incidents (or handball). Are Leicester showing easier pictures to referees significantly more often?
I've no doubt we should be in 5+ territory. I'm just not sure if Leicester should be in 15+ territory. |
The Dewsbury-Hall one versus Coventry was an absolute joke of a decision. | |
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| Pens awarded by club on 17:07 - Feb 25 with 1629 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| Pens awarded by club on 17:03 - Feb 25 by Herbivore |
The Dewsbury-Hall one versus Coventry was an absolute joke of a decision. |
He’s going down every week in the box now. We did get away with one second half Boxing Day against him though. | | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 17:11 - Feb 25 with 1606 views | Vegtablue |
| Pens awarded by club on 17:03 - Feb 25 by Herbivore |
The Dewsbury-Hall one versus Coventry was an absolute joke of a decision. |
Helps to have a massive cheat on your team too! | | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 18:08 - Feb 25 with 1511 views | Herbivore |
| Pens awarded by club on 17:07 - Feb 25 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
He’s going down every week in the box now. We did get away with one second half Boxing Day against him though. |
Would have been soft, imo. | |
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| Pens awarded by club on 21:34 - Feb 25 with 1313 views | skinnybob72 |
| Pens awarded by club on 10:24 - Feb 25 by Churchman |
I think there’s a lot in this. Our players do by and large look to stay on their feet. If you take a player like Dewsbury-Hall he’s looking to dive at every opportunity. The Leicester and Leeds players look schooled in it. PL influence, I suppose.
That and add in unconscious bias towards what Refs see at the big, important clubs and there you have the ridiculous disparity between a team in third and the teams above and one below. |
Very much this - watched the Leeds game on Friday night and Summerville and Gnonto in particular spent more time on the deck than Horatio Nelson. | | | |
| Pens awarded by club on 08:36 - Feb 26 with 994 views | tractordownsouth |
Can’t remember all of Leicester’s incidents off the top of my head so can’t judge whether or not they were fair. Instead I’ve made a list of all the incorrect decisions we’ve had in our games. Thankfully most of our misfortunate has come in games we’ve won anyway: obviously that’ll be skewed by the fact we’ve won 65% of them this season but points wise it’s fairly negligible.
Hard done by and would have affected the result:
Hutchinson penalty not given at Huddersfield (a)
First two goals at Preston (a)
Fortunate decision that affected the result:
Burgess foul not given as a penalty Leicester (h)
Handball v QPR (h)
Hard done by but ultimately didn’t affect the result:
Penalty not given on Hirst at Sunderland (a)
Disallowed goal v Southampton (a)
Penalty not given for handball at Rotherham (a)*
Foul on Chaplin before Leeds first goal (a)
Rotherham penalty (h)
Fortunate decision but ultimately didn’t affect the result:
Jackson offside for own goal v Leeds (h)
Cardiff disallowed goal (h)*
Al-Hamadi penalty at Millwall (a)
*Including these two as not affecting the result because we took the lead at Rotherham a few minutes after the decision and Cardiff scored just after their disallowed goal so I don’t think the game state would have been affected. [Post edited 26 Feb 8:37]
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