| Cost to be competitive 14:31 - May 9 with 4229 views | greyhound |
Another transfer thread I know, but a bit of a twist in this one.
Football has moved on a long way since we last had money to spend at championship level.
We have highly aspiring, project focussed owners who see the need to invest and the returns wise investments will bring the club. I think that's been well evidenced. The championship however does have a different spending environment attached to it.
I dont think big statement signings are always the answer but I do wonder if we will see our club transfer record broken this summer. We won't be held to ransom but I've got confidence that we will pay our way to get the players to build a squad to carry us forward. It's to early to say what the size of the "war chest" will be, but I'm confident we are going to be in unchartered territory.
If anything this summers business will prove to fans how serious we are about climbing fast vs a multi year build. |  | | |  |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:50 - May 9 with 3558 views | xrayspecs |
I believe that FFP will be more of an issue for us next season than has been the case in L1. IIUC, clubs can make an average £13m loss per season over a three year period in the Championship. Town lost £12.6m in 2021/22 and I would expect similar this year, despite higher attendances and merchandise sales. Some of that will be one off infrastructure costs such as Staples and the new pitches, but a lot of it will be higher salary costs.
This may mean was are not going to be able to go out and pay big money for signings and why player trading (buy low, develop and sell) is a big part of the strategy. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:55 - May 9 with 3514 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:50 - May 9 by xrayspecs |
I believe that FFP will be more of an issue for us next season than has been the case in L1. IIUC, clubs can make an average £13m loss per season over a three year period in the Championship. Town lost £12.6m in 2021/22 and I would expect similar this year, despite higher attendances and merchandise sales. Some of that will be one off infrastructure costs such as Staples and the new pitches, but a lot of it will be higher salary costs.
This may mean was are not going to be able to go out and pay big money for signings and why player trading (buy low, develop and sell) is a big part of the strategy. |
Infrastructure spending doesn't count towards FFP. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:58 - May 9 with 3510 views | Zx1988 |
I was wondering that myself, so took a look at the data on last season's Championship transfers:
https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2
Only thirteen clubs spent in excess of £1m on a single player last season, with seven of those clubs also having at least one player leave for a fee in excess of £1m, and five of those clubs turned a net profit through transfer dealings. Those clubs included the three clubs relegated from the Premier League.
Of those £1m+ players, only four cost more than the £4.8m ITFC spent on Sereni back in 2001, being Foster (Burnley), Sara (Norwich), Kone, and Bayo (Watford), with both Burnley and Watford being part of the group that made profits in transfer dealing.
It's clear that nobody is spending the kind of money that the likes of Derby et. al. were spending back in the early 2010s, and it's only really the clubs with parachute payments that are spending any kind of significant money.
I'd be surprised if we were to break our transfer record any time soon, but if we did it would certainly be a huge statement of intent in the context of the sorts of fees that are being paid in the Championship these days. [Post edited 9 May 2023 14:59]
| |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:03 - May 9 with 3465 views | jayessess |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:50 - May 9 by xrayspecs |
I believe that FFP will be more of an issue for us next season than has been the case in L1. IIUC, clubs can make an average £13m loss per season over a three year period in the Championship. Town lost £12.6m in 2021/22 and I would expect similar this year, despite higher attendances and merchandise sales. Some of that will be one off infrastructure costs such as Staples and the new pitches, but a lot of it will be higher salary costs.
This may mean was are not going to be able to go out and pay big money for signings and why player trading (buy low, develop and sell) is a big part of the strategy. |
I think someone mentioned that we won't be into next season's accounting period until some time in June, so there is a small window where we could pay big fees without it messing up our FFP.
That said, still think it's unlikely we'll break our transfer record (£4.8m). Think our status as a newly-promoted club probably puts any £5m-rated player off us for the minute, even if we were in a position to spend that.
Assuming our revenues go up to something like £25m next season, we could sustain expenditure of something like £38m per year under FFP (2021-22 expenditure was £28.9m but some of that will be infrastructure spend, exempt from FFP calculations). Our overall wage bill was £16.4m last year, although there will be clauses that see that jump on day one in the Championship. |  |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:05 - May 9 with 3452 views | HighgateBlue |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:50 - May 9 by xrayspecs |
I believe that FFP will be more of an issue for us next season than has been the case in L1. IIUC, clubs can make an average £13m loss per season over a three year period in the Championship. Town lost £12.6m in 2021/22 and I would expect similar this year, despite higher attendances and merchandise sales. Some of that will be one off infrastructure costs such as Staples and the new pitches, but a lot of it will be higher salary costs.
This may mean was are not going to be able to go out and pay big money for signings and why player trading (buy low, develop and sell) is a big part of the strategy. |
I wonder if the owners have considered pumping in £5m or £10m now, while we're still in League One. One obvious way to get round the fact that we aren't yet subject to FFP. Wouldn't blame them for not wanting to do so, mind. |  | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:05 - May 9 with 3448 views | xrayspecs |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:55 - May 9 by tractorboy1978 |
Infrastructure spending doesn't count towards FFP. |
I did start to read the rules on the EFL website but quickly glazed over.
There are various costs you can deduct - women's team, academy etc. I had not spotted infrastructure though.
Even taking this out of the equation, we still spend a lot more than we make, so without significant transfer fees being raised, our ability to spend big will be limited. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:07 - May 9 with 3431 views | xrayspecs |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:03 - May 9 by jayessess |
I think someone mentioned that we won't be into next season's accounting period until some time in June, so there is a small window where we could pay big fees without it messing up our FFP.
That said, still think it's unlikely we'll break our transfer record (£4.8m). Think our status as a newly-promoted club probably puts any £5m-rated player off us for the minute, even if we were in a position to spend that.
Assuming our revenues go up to something like £25m next season, we could sustain expenditure of something like £38m per year under FFP (2021-22 expenditure was £28.9m but some of that will be infrastructure spend, exempt from FFP calculations). Our overall wage bill was £16.4m last year, although there will be clauses that see that jump on day one in the Championship. |
I am not sure we can sign anyone until the window opens in July, so I am sceptical about our ability to spend monies now. If it was a thing, then we would see other clubs doing it. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:09 - May 9 with 3414 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
Scott Twine |  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Cost to be competitive on 15:10 - May 9 with 3408 views | xrayspecs |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:05 - May 9 by HighgateBlue |
I wonder if the owners have considered pumping in £5m or £10m now, while we're still in League One. One obvious way to get round the fact that we aren't yet subject to FFP. Wouldn't blame them for not wanting to do so, mind. |
I do not believe this is an option, as the authorities focus on what you spend versus what you earn during the financial year (July to June). Putting money in now does not impact revenue in the period July 23 to June 24, even if we have more cash in the bank. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:13 - May 9 with 3371 views | jayessess |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:07 - May 9 by xrayspecs |
I am not sure we can sign anyone until the window opens in July, so I am sceptical about our ability to spend monies now. If it was a thing, then we would see other clubs doing it. |
true, does seem like an obvious loophole you'd look to close! | |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:17 - May 9 with 3360 views | greyhound |
| Cost to be competitive on 14:58 - May 9 by Zx1988 |
I was wondering that myself, so took a look at the data on last season's Championship transfers:
https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2
Only thirteen clubs spent in excess of £1m on a single player last season, with seven of those clubs also having at least one player leave for a fee in excess of £1m, and five of those clubs turned a net profit through transfer dealings. Those clubs included the three clubs relegated from the Premier League.
Of those £1m+ players, only four cost more than the £4.8m ITFC spent on Sereni back in 2001, being Foster (Burnley), Sara (Norwich), Kone, and Bayo (Watford), with both Burnley and Watford being part of the group that made profits in transfer dealing.
It's clear that nobody is spending the kind of money that the likes of Derby et. al. were spending back in the early 2010s, and it's only really the clubs with parachute payments that are spending any kind of significant money.
I'd be surprised if we were to break our transfer record any time soon, but if we did it would certainly be a huge statement of intent in the context of the sorts of fees that are being paid in the Championship these days. [Post edited 9 May 2023 14:59]
|
Solid research, thanks for adding this, really valuable.
I should add that my view is that I think we have a team of people ready for the challenge of Premier league football. I just don't want us to break what we have already done in grasping it desperately. If its a slower build over 3 seasons bedding in solid additions while being more frugal I'm all for it. It's the noise that's on twitter etc saying that we won't be skimping this summer that's turning my head | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:29 - May 9 with 3292 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:05 - May 9 by xrayspecs |
I did start to read the rules on the EFL website but quickly glazed over.
There are various costs you can deduct - women's team, academy etc. I had not spotted infrastructure though.
Even taking this out of the equation, we still spend a lot more than we make, so without significant transfer fees being raised, our ability to spend big will be limited. |
Accounting for it is totally different to spending it though. People can tie themselves in knots trying to work out the numbers but unless you know the exact terms of every deal it is a pretty pointless exercise.
You can lose £39m over 3 seasons. I think we may have a proper go this summer and front load it in the hope we can:
a) Push on and get promotion whilst we still have McKenna
b) Build a base of young assets with improvement in them to go on and become £10m-£20m players
I honestly don't think we are going to think twice about laying out £5m for a player if we've extensively analysed them and think McKenna can turn them into a player worth 3 or 4 times that.
Ashton has talked about player trading being vital and it really is. Much like Brighton/Brentford (who do it best) you want to make sure you always have 1/2 players you can sell on at a large profit to balance the books (or more to the point within FFP). You need to keep that conveyor belt of players coming which means continuous, forward thinking investment. [Post edited 9 May 2023 15:32]
| | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:37 - May 9 with 3231 views | J2BLUE |
It would be interesting to see a list of free agents from Prem and Championship sides.
The likes of Brereton Diaz are free agents despite being worth millions. Just to be clear I know he's going to Spain and i'm mentioning him purely because he's an example of a high standard free agent. Not for a second suggesting he was a realistic target. Would be interesting to see a full list though. |  |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:56 - May 9 with 3128 views | itfcjoe |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:17 - May 9 by greyhound |
Solid research, thanks for adding this, really valuable.
I should add that my view is that I think we have a team of people ready for the challenge of Premier league football. I just don't want us to break what we have already done in grasping it desperately. If its a slower build over 3 seasons bedding in solid additions while being more frugal I'm all for it. It's the noise that's on twitter etc saying that we won't be skimping this summer that's turning my head |
I think if you believe McKenna is a special manager than you need to back him to get us up a bit quicker because otherwise we'll simply lose him if we elect to take slow progress through the Champ |  |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:57 - May 9 with 3107 views | xrayspecs |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:29 - May 9 by tractorboy1978 |
Accounting for it is totally different to spending it though. People can tie themselves in knots trying to work out the numbers but unless you know the exact terms of every deal it is a pretty pointless exercise.
You can lose £39m over 3 seasons. I think we may have a proper go this summer and front load it in the hope we can:
a) Push on and get promotion whilst we still have McKenna
b) Build a base of young assets with improvement in them to go on and become £10m-£20m players
I honestly don't think we are going to think twice about laying out £5m for a player if we've extensively analysed them and think McKenna can turn them into a player worth 3 or 4 times that.
Ashton has talked about player trading being vital and it really is. Much like Brighton/Brentford (who do it best) you want to make sure you always have 1/2 players you can sell on at a large profit to balance the books (or more to the point within FFP). You need to keep that conveyor belt of players coming which means continuous, forward thinking investment. [Post edited 9 May 2023 15:32]
|
While I agree with that to an extent, I am not sure this ownership are going to go for broke. They are trustees of firefighters pension funds after all.
I still think we will be limited next season because we do not yet have players to sell for good money. Chaplin and Broadhead need to have good seasons in the Champ before Prem clubs become interested in them. Davis has only had one season in L1. We know that champ clubs are not spending big fees so this model only works if we can sell into the Prem.
Interesting summer ahead.. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 16:01 - May 9 with 3092 views | greyhound |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:56 - May 9 by itfcjoe |
I think if you believe McKenna is a special manager than you need to back him to get us up a bit quicker because otherwise we'll simply lose him if we elect to take slow progress through the Champ |
I spoke to my dad about this last week. We both agreed that if he is going strong by Christmas there's a real chance he will. Get poached in the normal mid season shuffle. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 16:12 - May 9 with 3041 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:57 - May 9 by xrayspecs |
While I agree with that to an extent, I am not sure this ownership are going to go for broke. They are trustees of firefighters pension funds after all.
I still think we will be limited next season because we do not yet have players to sell for good money. Chaplin and Broadhead need to have good seasons in the Champ before Prem clubs become interested in them. Davis has only had one season in L1. We know that champ clubs are not spending big fees so this model only works if we can sell into the Prem.
Interesting summer ahead.. |
You don't have to go for broke but there is an element of speculate to accumulate. If we can pick an Adam Webster type up for £4m, I think we will do. We have one of, if not the best young manager outside the Premier League at the moment and we need to kick on. [Post edited 9 May 2023 16:13]
| | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 17:18 - May 9 with 2789 views | jayessess |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:56 - May 9 by itfcjoe |
I think if you believe McKenna is a special manager than you need to back him to get us up a bit quicker because otherwise we'll simply lose him if we elect to take slow progress through the Champ |
If we're in a hurry that backing has to be quality not quantity though, I think?
Realistically if more than half the squad we have now aren't ultimately good enough to challenge for the top 10 of the Championship that's not something we could resolve in the next 1/2 windows. It's only really viable if we think all we need is 4/5 top class first team improvements between now and January. | |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 17:34 - May 9 with 2715 views | Coastalblue |
| Cost to be competitive on 16:01 - May 9 by greyhound |
I spoke to my dad about this last week. We both agreed that if he is going strong by Christmas there's a real chance he will. Get poached in the normal mid season shuffle. |
I'm of the firm belief that he will manage us in the Prem, unless we have a torrid time in the Championship. He seems to have bought into the building process and is considered an integral part of it, I suspect he will feel he has failed if he leaves before getting us in the PL. |  |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 18:03 - May 9 with 2609 views | xrayspecs |
| Cost to be competitive on 16:01 - May 9 by greyhound |
I spoke to my dad about this last week. We both agreed that if he is going strong by Christmas there's a real chance he will. Get poached in the normal mid season shuffle. |
KM comes across as very astute, and will know for the next few years (at least) he will be well supported by current owners.
Why risk doing a Lampard or Potter, rushing into a "big" job when he can build his CV and reputation here. KM is still very young for a manager, so can take his time. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 18:24 - May 9 with 2502 views | jayessess |
| Cost to be competitive on 18:03 - May 9 by xrayspecs |
KM comes across as very astute, and will know for the next few years (at least) he will be well supported by current owners.
Why risk doing a Lampard or Potter, rushing into a "big" job when he can build his CV and reputation here. KM is still very young for a manager, so can take his time. |
Counterpoint to that - you can be as patient as you like but a bad job or a bad season is always right around the corner as a football manager and it'll torch your reputation regardless of what comes beforehand.
You've mentioned Potter here and he's a great example of that. Patiently built his reputation through over 400 games at modest sized clubs - 7 seasons in Sweden, 1 and a bit at Swansea, 2 and a bit at Brighton - earns his shot at a Top 6 job. But he failed at the big one so he gets listed as an impatient Icarus who's flown to close to the Sun.
Think most managers learn that you take the opportunities that present themselves, because they won't come again and your stock can go up as well as down. Take Rob Edwards, everyone said he was daft to jump from League 2 to take the Watford job. He takes it, he fails, but suddenly he's on the Championship manager merry-go-round rather than the L1/L2 one. Or Mark Bonner, stays loyal to Cambridge United, doesn't take the Rotherham job, MK Dons hold on to their 4-1 lead and he's probably sacked with a relegation on his CV and nowhere near a Championship job ever again. Meanwhile Matt Taylor took that job, kept Rotherham up and probably guaranteed that his next couple of jobs are at that level too. [Post edited 9 May 2023 18:24]
| |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 18:38 - May 9 with 2453 views | OldFart71 |
Given the astuteness of the CEO and Keiran McKenna I would have thought that they have been busy in the scouting department by at the least running their eyes over teams we have played in Division One and players that might step up. Hirst I would imagine would be around the two million mark. Freddie was brilliant for us and helped us into the Championship, but I don't again see him as the main man, therfore if Hirst is beyond us then someone else will be sourced. Think there could be more out's than in's. | | | |
| Cost to be competitive on 18:50 - May 9 with 2411 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Cost to be competitive on 15:56 - May 9 by itfcjoe |
I think if you believe McKenna is a special manager than you need to back him to get us up a bit quicker because otherwise we'll simply lose him if we elect to take slow progress through the Champ |
Much as McKenna is doing very well, there is more to our success than just him. We are being run very well as a club. I doubt anywhere run as well will be spending any more and look at him (although you never know). I think McKenna is happy with the project and to grow with it.
The other side of this is that eventually, for whatever reason, the club and McKenna will part company. I am sure we will be looking to be as thorough in identifying who to appoint as we were when we identified him. Of course, there is still a risk but less of one than when we just looked for which formerly-successful manager is available. |  |
| |
| Cost to be competitive on 19:23 - May 9 with 2259 views | SlippinJimmyJuan |
I was thinking about this earlier and although I trust our recruitment process, the figures you see spent in the Championship these days are quite frightening
When you are talking about spending millions on one player, you really appreciate the risk that each purchase brings. It only takes a freak injury to render that spending completely wasted, and yet I think you are right in that we may need to break our record to be truly competitive at that level. It's exciting, but it is a bit scary. | |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
