| How many points for automatic promotion? 13:04 - Mar 6 with 4604 views | SmithersJones |
Even if Plymouth slip up in their next couple of games I can't see where they're going to drop more than a few after that. I know we need to concentrate on getting points ourselves and all that, but we could be needing not far off 100 to go up. That seems ridiculous. |  | | |  |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:11 - Mar 6 with 4223 views | The_Realist_09 |
Could need around 93, but I agree they'd have to have a real wobble and we'd have to get some huge results in big games.
They look to have a really kind run-in after their next few. | | | |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:11 - Mar 6 with 4222 views | Herbivore |
Think 2nd will end up somewhere between 90 and 94 points, which is pretty high for top 2 and I can easily see the 3rd place team breaking 90 points and falling short. |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:24 - Mar 6 with 4066 views | Asa |
I don't think it'll end up being as many as people think.
Teams always get wobbly around this time. Players are dead on their feet. Top sides get nervous because there's loads at stake, teams down the bottom are fighting for their lives and teams in the middle have no pressure and players playing for a contract somewhere, if not at their current clubs. Players will play through injury when they shouldn't because of what is riding on matches. Managers will overthink things because of the pressure.
Every season the last 8-10 games throw up some absolutely ridiculous results. Look at Leicester. Dead and buried in the Premier League and they win 7 of out 9 to stay up. The lower leagues are even more ridiculous.
It's not impossible that come Saturday we are a couple of points behind Plymouth, even without a win at Bolton. I would be amazed if Plymouth, Wednesday or ourselves are the same of higher PPG over the last dozen games as has been the case for large spells in the season.
To highlight this, I remember Rotherham last year. Basically they were us / Plymouth and out of nowhere lost 3 home games in a row about this time, one a hammering by lowly Shrewsbury and then lost to Charlton as well who weren't much.
Yesterday an out of sorts Liverpool inflicted in form United's biggest defeat in 90 years in what is basically a derby. Anything can and does happen in football and I honestly think it we have a very good run now then we will go up because history shows that it's very rare that the top 2 or 3 at this point all keep up their form. | | | |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:27 - Mar 6 with 4019 views | CityBlue |
we slipped up plenty...Fleetwood at home for example. It happens....Plymouth at home formidable, but shaky on their travels. |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:31 - Mar 6 with 3933 views | SmithersJones |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:27 - Mar 6 by CityBlue |
we slipped up plenty...Fleetwood at home for example. It happens....Plymouth at home formidable, but shaky on their travels. |
I hope you're right. At the moment Plymouth's maximum is 107. So even if they drop 15 points in the last 12 games they still end up on 2 points per game. Obviously if it were us in their position I'd be predicting 80 if we're lucky! | | | |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:32 - Mar 6 with 3922 views | HighgateBlue |
If Plymouth maintain their PPG from the season thus far, then they'll end up on 96, and we'd need 10 wins, 1 draw and a loss from our 12 games. I can't see how that's possible in reality.
Given Plymouth's loss of Cooper and Whittaker, it's reasonable to assume that they will drop off a little. But in the last 5 games they've managed 10 points, and we've caught up only by one point. That's plainly too slow to catch them by the end of the season. If they carry on at 2 points per game for the last 12 games, they'd finish on 95. I can't see us matching that.
So we need their drop off to be more marked than it has been thus far. Their run in looks relatively soft, so I think a lot will be known after the next two games. They have Derby and Barnsley next. 4 points from those two, and I think they will have done enough to fend us off. OK, if we get 6 points from the next two games we'd only be 3 points off them, and that would give us a fighting chance over the last 10, but (a) Bolton away will be tough, and (b) that soft Plymouth run-in does worry me.
In short, if Plymouth drop to form that is commensurate with 7th place (Wycombe) that would leave us needing to get to 91 points. To do that, we'd need 25 points (7 wins, 4 draws, one loss). I couldn't confidently predict that we will need less than 91, and I couldn't confidently predict that we'll get more than 91.
However, one positive is that our goal difference is so far superior to. Plymouth's that if we catch them on points we'll surely be better than them on goal difference. |  | | |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:41 - Mar 6 with 3812 views | Illinoisblue |
I still think we might squeak into second but let’s face it, playoff agony is probably headed our way. |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:41 - Mar 6 with 3802 views | MeltonBlue |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:32 - Mar 6 by HighgateBlue |
If Plymouth maintain their PPG from the season thus far, then they'll end up on 96, and we'd need 10 wins, 1 draw and a loss from our 12 games. I can't see how that's possible in reality.
Given Plymouth's loss of Cooper and Whittaker, it's reasonable to assume that they will drop off a little. But in the last 5 games they've managed 10 points, and we've caught up only by one point. That's plainly too slow to catch them by the end of the season. If they carry on at 2 points per game for the last 12 games, they'd finish on 95. I can't see us matching that.
So we need their drop off to be more marked than it has been thus far. Their run in looks relatively soft, so I think a lot will be known after the next two games. They have Derby and Barnsley next. 4 points from those two, and I think they will have done enough to fend us off. OK, if we get 6 points from the next two games we'd only be 3 points off them, and that would give us a fighting chance over the last 10, but (a) Bolton away will be tough, and (b) that soft Plymouth run-in does worry me.
In short, if Plymouth drop to form that is commensurate with 7th place (Wycombe) that would leave us needing to get to 91 points. To do that, we'd need 25 points (7 wins, 4 draws, one loss). I couldn't confidently predict that we will need less than 91, and I couldn't confidently predict that we'll get more than 91.
However, one positive is that our goal difference is so far superior to. Plymouth's that if we catch them on points we'll surely be better than them on goal difference. |
Plymouth away games will be key..
Away to Barnsley
Away to Accrington (long trip on Tuesday night)
Away to morcambe (Bolton dropped points there)
Away to Exeter (local derby)
Away to Shrewsbury (doing pretty well)
Away to Port Vale (can be tricky) | | | |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:44 - Mar 6 with 3744 views | positivity |
plymouth are in the box seat for sure, but take a look at how many of the last 5 games they won last year, when they were shoo-ins for the playoffs.
different manager etc, but the fans would be forgiven for being nervous if they start to drop points and that may transmit to the pitch | |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:45 - Mar 6 with 3731 views | Herbivore |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:32 - Mar 6 by HighgateBlue |
If Plymouth maintain their PPG from the season thus far, then they'll end up on 96, and we'd need 10 wins, 1 draw and a loss from our 12 games. I can't see how that's possible in reality.
Given Plymouth's loss of Cooper and Whittaker, it's reasonable to assume that they will drop off a little. But in the last 5 games they've managed 10 points, and we've caught up only by one point. That's plainly too slow to catch them by the end of the season. If they carry on at 2 points per game for the last 12 games, they'd finish on 95. I can't see us matching that.
So we need their drop off to be more marked than it has been thus far. Their run in looks relatively soft, so I think a lot will be known after the next two games. They have Derby and Barnsley next. 4 points from those two, and I think they will have done enough to fend us off. OK, if we get 6 points from the next two games we'd only be 3 points off them, and that would give us a fighting chance over the last 10, but (a) Bolton away will be tough, and (b) that soft Plymouth run-in does worry me.
In short, if Plymouth drop to form that is commensurate with 7th place (Wycombe) that would leave us needing to get to 91 points. To do that, we'd need 25 points (7 wins, 4 draws, one loss). I couldn't confidently predict that we will need less than 91, and I couldn't confidently predict that we'll get more than 91.
However, one positive is that our goal difference is so far superior to. Plymouth's that if we catch them on points we'll surely be better than them on goal difference. |
If Plymouth continued their form from the past 6 games they'd end up on 91 points. Our current form from the last 6 games would take us to 90 points if we replicated it over the last 12 games. I think it has the potential to be a close run thing. | |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:47 - Mar 6 with 3688 views | Herbivore |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:44 - Mar 6 by positivity |
plymouth are in the box seat for sure, but take a look at how many of the last 5 games they won last year, when they were shoo-ins for the playoffs.
different manager etc, but the fans would be forgiven for being nervous if they start to drop points and that may transmit to the pitch |
Same manager. Schumacher took over in December 2021. | |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:47 - Mar 6 with 3676 views | positivity |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:27 - Mar 6 by CityBlue |
we slipped up plenty...Fleetwood at home for example. It happens....Plymouth at home formidable, but shaky on their travels. |
even plymouth couldn't beat fleetwood at home! | |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:48 - Mar 6 with 3663 views | positivity |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:47 - Mar 6 by Herbivore |
Same manager. Schumacher took over in December 2021. |
i'd forgotten that, thanks | |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:51 - Mar 6 with 3613 views | tractorboy1978 |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:41 - Mar 6 by MeltonBlue |
Plymouth away games will be key..
Away to Barnsley
Away to Accrington (long trip on Tuesday night)
Away to morcambe (Bolton dropped points there)
Away to Exeter (local derby)
Away to Shrewsbury (doing pretty well)
Away to Port Vale (can be tricky) |
Lincoln and Bristol Rovers will also go to Home Park and be horrible to play against. I'd agree with the general point their run in is kinder but we know that attritional draws are very much a possibility in some of these games.
Edit - we need to hope teams don't do what Charlton did at the weekend and gift them a goal straight from kick off! [Post edited 6 Mar 2023 13:57]
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 14:05 - Mar 6 with 3368 views | J2BLUE |
Again, how many games where the top 4 or 5 dropped points would you have expected it?
It's crazy to think they won't drop points. We will drop points as well. There are a lot of twists and turns to come. By the time we go to Bolton we could consider a draw there to be a good result. |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 14:18 - Mar 6 with 3183 views | HighgateBlue |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:45 - Mar 6 by Herbivore |
If Plymouth continued their form from the past 6 games they'd end up on 91 points. Our current form from the last 6 games would take us to 90 points if we replicated it over the last 12 games. I think it has the potential to be a close run thing. |
Perfectly decent argument, that.
I think if Plymouth manage more than 91 it'll be a tough ask, and they would be favourites. But it's entirely possible that they only manage 91, and if that's the case I agree it will be a close run thing. | | | |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 14:19 - Mar 6 with 3185 views | clive_baker |
It almost certainly wont be 100 points needed to finish in the top 2, but I think it'll start in a 9. Low 90's looks about right. We've got 12 games left, 36 points left to play for and I would say it'll be something like this:
28 - 36 points: Should be enough for top 2
25 - 27 points: Touch and go
10 - 25 points: Playoffs
<10: Disaster, probably miss out on top 6.
If we carry on our run rate so far this season it'll give us 23 more points, finishing on 89 and I think probably missing out on top 2. I can't see Plymouth only picking up 18 over the same period. Personally I think we'll do a little better than that, I think we'll take 25 points, finishing on 91 and just missing out on top 2.
28+ points is going to need 9 wins from 12 and a point somewhere. Or 8 wins and 4 draws. If we could win our next 2 I think it would be getting interesting. We might have gained a little on Plymouth by then and being in a position where we're looking at 7 wins and a draw from 10 feels doable to finish on 94 points. The next 3 away games are really tough on paper, they could make or break our top 2 push. |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 14:57 - Mar 6 with 2739 views | Kievthegreat |
2 massive games coming up for us and Plymouth. Plymouth have their toughest remaining games of the year against Derby (h) and Barnsley (a). After that they should be on the home straight and will fancy themselves to be able to keep at least 2 PPG from the last 10.
Meanwhile we have an easier game against Accrington before we enter our toughest remaining spell of 4/5 games. The advantage to Plymouth I reckon is bigger than just 5 points right now based on the strength of the remaining opponents. If Plymouth get 6 points from their next 2, I think they'll finish the job. I think we need to hope that they drop 4-6 points so we can breathe down their neck for the rest of the year.
I hope Plymouth only get 91, but i reckon it'll be more like 92-95 points. [Post edited 6 Mar 2023 14:58]
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 15:11 - Mar 6 with 2604 views | BlueandTruesince82 |
Genuinely think we could hit 90 -92 points and still end up in the play offs. Insane. |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 16:05 - Mar 6 with 2311 views | xrayspecs |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:32 - Mar 6 by HighgateBlue |
If Plymouth maintain their PPG from the season thus far, then they'll end up on 96, and we'd need 10 wins, 1 draw and a loss from our 12 games. I can't see how that's possible in reality.
Given Plymouth's loss of Cooper and Whittaker, it's reasonable to assume that they will drop off a little. But in the last 5 games they've managed 10 points, and we've caught up only by one point. That's plainly too slow to catch them by the end of the season. If they carry on at 2 points per game for the last 12 games, they'd finish on 95. I can't see us matching that.
So we need their drop off to be more marked than it has been thus far. Their run in looks relatively soft, so I think a lot will be known after the next two games. They have Derby and Barnsley next. 4 points from those two, and I think they will have done enough to fend us off. OK, if we get 6 points from the next two games we'd only be 3 points off them, and that would give us a fighting chance over the last 10, but (a) Bolton away will be tough, and (b) that soft Plymouth run-in does worry me.
In short, if Plymouth drop to form that is commensurate with 7th place (Wycombe) that would leave us needing to get to 91 points. To do that, we'd need 25 points (7 wins, 4 draws, one loss). I couldn't confidently predict that we will need less than 91, and I couldn't confidently predict that we'll get more than 91.
However, one positive is that our goal difference is so far superior to. Plymouth's that if we catch them on points we'll surely be better than them on goal difference. |
Up until 1 January when the transfer window opened and PAFC lost Morgan Whittaker (3 Jan), PAFC had 53 from 24 games (2.21 per game). Since January they have secured 18 from 10 (1.8 per game).
If they were to continue to get 1.8 points per game through to the end of the season, then they end up on 93 points.
That said, in their last 10 games the have lost away at Sheff W and Pboro and drawn at Bolton and Ipswich and home to Fleetwood, so with an easier run in to come, you would expect them to post mid to high 90s points.
If Town are to catch Plymouth, then we need to be near flawless in our remaining games and hope they slip up. | | | |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 16:13 - Mar 6 with 2188 views | Kropotkin123 |
Next two are Barnsley and Derby.
That leaves Shrewsbury, Lincoln, Exeter, Port Vale, Bristol Rovers, Burton, Accrington, Morecambe, Cambridge, Forest Green
They've dropped points against: Lincoln, Port Vale, Bristol Rovers, Burton, Cambridge.
As we've witnessed, how a team sets up against your style can have an impact on the results.
They've also only won 2 of their past 10 away games... |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 17:28 - Mar 6 with 1857 views | Ely_Blue |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:27 - Mar 6 by CityBlue |
we slipped up plenty...Fleetwood at home for example. It happens....Plymouth at home formidable, but shaky on their travels. |
If you look at Plymouths last 15 away games they are actually better than we are, even if you take that to 10 games they are only 2 points worse off than us |  |
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 17:36 - Mar 6 with 1825 views | Herbivore |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 17:28 - Mar 6 by Ely_Blue |
If you look at Plymouths last 15 away games they are actually better than we are, even if you take that to 10 games they are only 2 points worse off than us |
We've been pretty ropey away from home over that period though after initially starting the season well away from home. Too early to say, but having finally won an away game again hopefully we might start picking up again away from home. Plymouth have been hit and miss away for much of the season, it's their home form that's carrying their promotion challenge. | |
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| We'll finish on 91 points; Plymouth will finish on 93... on 17:55 - Mar 6 with 1711 views | unstableblue |
Predictions update…. Remaining games… by unstableblue 5 Mar 2023 9:40See below original predictions
Now 12 games to go… Pompey are 1 point down! We’re getting the wins we needed to start a run
The predicted win for Plymouth against Charlton makes me think they’ll get a couple of draws at least against Derby and Barnsley, but let’s see.
A win for us Tuesday and a draw for them… would make 3 points and our better goal difference, which feels significant in putting pressure on Plymouth
Having seen Burton there’s another banana skin there, especially with agent Ahadme
But still expect us to get promotion via play-offs
Bolton, Barnsley, and Derby away for us is tough
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14 games of nail biting madness:
Town W9 D4 L1 - 31 points
Plymouth W7 D5 L2 - 26 points
Final points:
Plymouth - 94
Town - 91
Arghhhhh!!! Close but no cigar. 91 points and no promotion feels likely this season, 91 points is a terrific points tally. But we go into the play-offs in form!
Well that's my prediction anyway
Ipswich remaining fixtures:
25 Feb 15:00 MK Dons A - W
4 Mar 15:00 Burton Albion H - W
7 Mar 19:45 Accrington Stanley H - W
11 Mar 15:00 Bolton Wanderers A - D
18 Mar 15:00 Shrewsbury Town H - W
25 Mar 15:00 Barnsley A - L
1 Apr 15:00 Derby County A - D
7 Apr 15:00 Wycombe Wanderers H - W
10 Apr 15:00 Cheltenham Town A - W
15 Apr 15:00 Charlton Athletic H - W
18 Apr 19:45 Port Vale H - W
22 Apr 15:00 Peterborough United A - D
29 Apr 15:00 Exeter City H - W
7 May 12:00 Fleetwood Town A - D
Plymouth remaining fixtures
Sat 25 Feb A Peterborough United D
Sat 4 Mar H Charlton Athletic W
Tue 7 Mar H Derby County L
Sat 11 Mar A Barnsley L
Sat 18 Mar H Forest Green Rovers W
Tue 21 Mar A Accrington Stanley W
Sat 1 Apr H Bristol Rovers D
Fri 7 Apr A Morecambe W
Mon 10 Apr H Lincoln City W
Sat 15 Apr A Exeter City D
Tue 18 Apr A Shrewsbury Town D
Sat 22 Apr H Cambridge United W
Sat 29 Apr H Burton Albion W
Sun 7 May A Port Vale D
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| How many points for automatic promotion? on 18:25 - Mar 6 with 1546 views | N2_Blue |
| How many points for automatic promotion? on 13:41 - Mar 6 by MeltonBlue |
Plymouth away games will be key..
Away to Barnsley
Away to Accrington (long trip on Tuesday night)
Away to morcambe (Bolton dropped points there)
Away to Exeter (local derby)
Away to Shrewsbury (doing pretty well)
Away to Port Vale (can be tricky) |
This 100%
I can't understand why people think Plymouth have a easy run in and will get 94+ points. There are plenty of not straight forward games for them. People dismiss games like Shrewsbury Lincoln Port Vale as easy in this division, but away from home they are anything but and Plymouths away from gives plenty of hope and one could say their home form is not sustainable for the whole season, the 0-0 with Fleetwood shows that they can drop points at home too.
We may not catch them but one thing is for sure, they'll drop plenty of points in games most fans have already nailed them for a win. It's how many points we also drop that is key and whether we can make up the difference or not. |  |
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