| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 11:13 - Jan 16 with 2463 views | kizaitfc |
I know no games are easy in this league, but just had a little look at what games are coming up. Other than West Brom they all look very winnable games, then a toughish April to end the season.
Am I getting too excited?
|  |
| |  |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:20 - Jan 16 with 2397 views | _clive_baker_ |
I presume you mean after Leicester!
Agree though, after Leicester we have the following 11 league games before we host Southampton:
3 Feb 15:00 Preston North End A
10 Feb 12:30 West Bromwich Albion H
14 Feb 20:00 Millwall A
17 Feb 15:00 Swansea City A
20 Feb 19:45 Rotherham United H
24 Feb 15:00 Birmingham City H
2 Mar 15:00 Plymouth Argyle A
5 Mar 19:45 Bristol City H
9 Mar 15:00 Cardiff City A
16 Mar 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday H
29 Mar 15:00 Blackburn Rovers A
33 points, 33 goals. |  | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:37 - Jan 16 with 2285 views | ChampionsofInnsbruck |
If we can get another point out of Leicester and beat Southampton we will be looking okay that's for sure. There no reason we cannot beat them both either, we just need everyone fit and the Hirst replacement in, as good as Jackson played against Sunderland, we still need another option. |  | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:52 - Jan 16 with 2175 views | Mach_foreignBlue |
To make you more excited  Southampton got difficult away games too. |  | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:53 - Jan 16 with 2163 views | kizaitfc |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:20 - Jan 16 by _clive_baker_ |
I presume you mean after Leicester!
Agree though, after Leicester we have the following 11 league games before we host Southampton:
3 Feb 15:00 Preston North End A
10 Feb 12:30 West Bromwich Albion H
14 Feb 20:00 Millwall A
17 Feb 15:00 Swansea City A
20 Feb 19:45 Rotherham United H
24 Feb 15:00 Birmingham City H
2 Mar 15:00 Plymouth Argyle A
5 Mar 19:45 Bristol City H
9 Mar 15:00 Cardiff City A
16 Mar 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday H
29 Mar 15:00 Blackburn Rovers A
33 points, 33 goals. |
Yes after Leicester.
Just noticed Southampton play Leeds away on the last game of the season.
Southampton also have a very tough March/April where they play Sunderland, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Blackburn, Coventry, Watford. | |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:54 - Jan 16 with 2151 views | davblue |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:52 - Jan 16 by Mach_foreignBlue |
To make you more excited Southampton got difficult away games too. |
teams were probably saying the same thing about us last year with Bolton, Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley to come. |  | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:56 - Jan 16 with 2127 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:54 - Jan 16 by davblue |
teams were probably saying the same thing about us last year with Bolton, Derby, Peterborough and Barnsley to come. |
True, trying to predict the Championship is pointless. Southampton have been flying and then go and drop 2 points at Norwich of all places. | | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:11 - Jan 16 with 2027 views | textbackup |
QPR looked winnable too… |  |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:14 - Jan 16 with 2003 views | davblue |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 11:56 - Jan 16 by _clive_baker_ |
True, trying to predict the Championship is pointless. Southampton have been flying and then go and drop 2 points at Norwich of all places. |
yeah, who knows what will happen, wouldn't surprise me either way if Southampton have a stumble in those games or go unbeaten in them. Feels like we are going to have to go close to reproducing last seasons back end form to have a chance. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:21 - Jan 16 with 1942 views | keighleyblue |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:11 - Jan 16 by textbackup |
QPR looked winnable too… |
As did Rotherham / Huddersfield / Brum / Stoke away..
Not being clever or obtuse, just being cautious, other than the top 6 sides which are maybe slightly less winnable, those at the other end of the table will be scrapping like hell to get results - more so, as games start to run out. |  | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:26 - Jan 16 with 1900 views | textbackup |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:14 - Jan 16 by davblue |
yeah, who knows what will happen, wouldn't surprise me either way if Southampton have a stumble in those games or go unbeaten in them. Feels like we are going to have to go close to reproducing last seasons back end form to have a chance. |
All I know is every team will drop points, and more often than not against teams you least expect.
I think we’ve lost 3 games in 25 this season… if we finish the season having only lost 6/8 overall, and we fail to get 2nd, I’m still going to be chuffed.
Playoffs are a lottery, we could have the first leg here and be 3-0 up at HT, if we have one of those games, or we could also have one of those games and draw!
I’ve spent far too much time trying to predict anything so I’m just going to chill the fck out now 😂 | |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:55 - Jan 16 with 1756 views | baxterbasics |
Southampton have an easy-ish run over the same period, wouldn't be surprised to see us rooted in 3rd soon unless we hit our early form once again. Hoping for the best but being realistic! |  |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 13:04 - Jan 16 with 1699 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:55 - Jan 16 by baxterbasics |
Southampton have an easy-ish run over the same period, wouldn't be surprised to see us rooted in 3rd soon unless we hit our early form once again. Hoping for the best but being realistic! |
If I was a Southampton fan I would want automatic promotion all sorted before the last game of the season, away to Leeds. |  |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 13:12 - Jan 16 with 1644 views | baxterbasics |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 13:04 - Jan 16 by Pinewoodblue |
If I was a Southampton fan I would want automatic promotion all sorted before the last game of the season, away to Leeds. |
Yes this could be our saving grace as has been noted - Southampton have a tougher end run.
Would be nice if their game with Leeds means nothing more than a battle between 3rd and 4th. | |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 13:21 - Jan 16 with 1594 views | Battersea_Blue |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 13:12 - Jan 16 by baxterbasics |
Yes this could be our saving grace as has been noted - Southampton have a tougher end run.
Would be nice if their game with Leeds means nothing more than a battle between 3rd and 4th. |
If Leicester have a major blip and we have a minor one, perhaps it could turn out that a draw in that last game would get them both automatic, if a loss for either opens up the chance for us to pip one of them if we win our last game.
Interesting scenario and I wonder how that game would go then . . | | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 13:50 - Jan 16 with 1484 views | GeoffSentence |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 12:11 - Jan 16 by textbackup |
QPR looked winnable too… |
We did have half a team out sick for that one. |  |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 15:44 - Jan 16 with 1266 views | Vegtablue |
Saints had an incredibly tough start and are now three-quarters of the way through a much easier middle. They have the toughest finish of anyone, so hopefully their momentum isn't unassailable by then. Their worst 5-game spell in the 20 matches since losing to us reads DWWDD, which is pretty mad and reinforces the view that we've done very little wrong in seeing our gap reduce over that time. 58 points is the 9th highest Championship total ever at this stage after all, despite drawing 0-0 to QPR and Stoke at the end of the busy Xmas period.
We do have an easier run on the horizon and I'm a believer in tougher and easier fixtures, as much as all matches are potentially difficult. Style should be factored in as well but worse teams simply have a lower average performance, to state the obvious. Players and performance ceilings are generally worse/lower too, particularly at this stage when the table is more reliable.
So there's good reason to be optimistic in my book too kiza 👍 | | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 15:56 - Jan 16 with 1218 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 15:44 - Jan 16 by Vegtablue |
Saints had an incredibly tough start and are now three-quarters of the way through a much easier middle. They have the toughest finish of anyone, so hopefully their momentum isn't unassailable by then. Their worst 5-game spell in the 20 matches since losing to us reads DWWDD, which is pretty mad and reinforces the view that we've done very little wrong in seeing our gap reduce over that time. 58 points is the 9th highest Championship total ever at this stage after all, despite drawing 0-0 to QPR and Stoke at the end of the busy Xmas period.
We do have an easier run on the horizon and I'm a believer in tougher and easier fixtures, as much as all matches are potentially difficult. Style should be factored in as well but worse teams simply have a lower average performance, to state the obvious. Players and performance ceilings are generally worse/lower too, particularly at this stage when the table is more reliable.
So there's good reason to be optimistic in my book too kiza 👍 |
It's a bit hard to know to what extent their tough start was adjusting to life at this level rather than the opposition. Can't imagine them losing 5-0 to Sunderland now they're in their swing for example.
They'll definitely drop plenty more points though. 4 of their next 5 are away from home, if we can match them over that period then I think we can really turn the screw from late Feb through March until we play them. If they're coming to PR still 3 points behind us then the onus is going to be on them to come at us, and I'd fancy us to do them and open a gap.
What's really nuts about our current position is we're pretty much nailed on top 6 now. Run rate for 6th is looking like 68-70 points which we'll breeze. Obviously our sights are set higher now but what a season we're having. | | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 15:59 - Jan 16 with 1192 views | portmanking |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 15:56 - Jan 16 by _clive_baker_ |
It's a bit hard to know to what extent their tough start was adjusting to life at this level rather than the opposition. Can't imagine them losing 5-0 to Sunderland now they're in their swing for example.
They'll definitely drop plenty more points though. 4 of their next 5 are away from home, if we can match them over that period then I think we can really turn the screw from late Feb through March until we play them. If they're coming to PR still 3 points behind us then the onus is going to be on them to come at us, and I'd fancy us to do them and open a gap.
What's really nuts about our current position is we're pretty much nailed on top 6 now. Run rate for 6th is looking like 68-70 points which we'll breeze. Obviously our sights are set higher now but what a season we're having. |
On your final paragraph, I think this should really take the pressure off us in so many ways.
One more win soonish would effectively wrap up playoffs with 3-4 months of the season remaining. We can then really afford to simply try and win every game, with the shackles well and truly off. | | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 16:27 - Jan 16 with 1108 views | Vegtablue |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 15:56 - Jan 16 by _clive_baker_ |
It's a bit hard to know to what extent their tough start was adjusting to life at this level rather than the opposition. Can't imagine them losing 5-0 to Sunderland now they're in their swing for example.
They'll definitely drop plenty more points though. 4 of their next 5 are away from home, if we can match them over that period then I think we can really turn the screw from late Feb through March until we play them. If they're coming to PR still 3 points behind us then the onus is going to be on them to come at us, and I'd fancy us to do them and open a gap.
What's really nuts about our current position is we're pretty much nailed on top 6 now. Run rate for 6th is looking like 68-70 points which we'll breeze. Obviously our sights are set higher now but what a season we're having. |
Well said I was going to mention their adjustment, particularly under "Martin ball", but didn't want my writing about them to become too long lol. Both almost certainly contributed to their start.
The negative narrative on our season is that we followed 11 wins in 13 with 6 wins in 14, and we've now settled as a good Championship team after a freakishly brilliant start. Good is more than good enough to see us in the play-offs though as you say; average would be plenty good enough from here.
It's very difficult to know how close to freakish or good we need to be from here for top two. Normally a steady 1.7 PPG would be enough but Southampton are on 2.36 PPG from their last 19 matches: they were my pre-season pick for the title, so my judgement is perhaps clouded in thinking they won't slow down by as much as 0.5 PPG over the remaining 19.
NB. I subscribe to the narrative that we're very good, rather than just good, in case anyone is offended by the middle paragraph and wishes to debate that point with someone else. [Post edited 16 Jan 16:34]
| | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 17:07 - Jan 16 with 1000 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 16:27 - Jan 16 by Vegtablue |
Well said I was going to mention their adjustment, particularly under "Martin ball", but didn't want my writing about them to become too long lol. Both almost certainly contributed to their start.
The negative narrative on our season is that we followed 11 wins in 13 with 6 wins in 14, and we've now settled as a good Championship team after a freakishly brilliant start. Good is more than good enough to see us in the play-offs though as you say; average would be plenty good enough from here.
It's very difficult to know how close to freakish or good we need to be from here for top two. Normally a steady 1.7 PPG would be enough but Southampton are on 2.36 PPG from their last 19 matches: they were my pre-season pick for the title, so my judgement is perhaps clouded in thinking they won't slow down by as much as 0.5 PPG over the remaining 19.
NB. I subscribe to the narrative that we're very good, rather than just good, in case anyone is offended by the middle paragraph and wishes to debate that point with someone else. [Post edited 16 Jan 16:34]
|
I would agree with that. I think we're very good. I think it's also true that we've been a touch unlucky to find ourselves in a division with 3 relegated sides who had all been in the premier league a while, were pretty settled squad wise, had very good players and some highly saleable assets like Maddison, Lavia, Ward-Prowse etc, and really deep pockets. None of them are a straight up, straight down proposition like a Norwich or Watford of previous years. I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 of those clubs finish on 88+ points, which I can't imagine has ever happened before.
We've obviously defied the odds so far to be mixing it with them, and you can't do that for 27 games without having something about you. We would likely need not just very poor / relegation form from here, but actually bottom of the table form to not make the playoffs, which frankly wont happen. Even the realistic worst case scenario from here sees us comfortably into the top 6.
A big part of me thinks we'll be pipped to 2nd. Not to be negative about it, I just think they've got so much quality and depth that they'll take some stopping. In fact it's quite possible that they leapfrog us this weekend given the fixtures.
Top 2 isn't impossible though. 12 wins out of 19 with a few draws thrown in would probably do it, especially if one of them is against Southampton. Either way it's going to be fascinating and we'll still have the playoffs as a consolation. | | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 17:12 - Jan 16 with 972 views | PioneerBlue |
Yes. One Game At A Time please. | |
| |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 17:30 - Jan 16 with 904 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 17:07 - Jan 16 by _clive_baker_ |
I would agree with that. I think we're very good. I think it's also true that we've been a touch unlucky to find ourselves in a division with 3 relegated sides who had all been in the premier league a while, were pretty settled squad wise, had very good players and some highly saleable assets like Maddison, Lavia, Ward-Prowse etc, and really deep pockets. None of them are a straight up, straight down proposition like a Norwich or Watford of previous years. I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 of those clubs finish on 88+ points, which I can't imagine has ever happened before.
We've obviously defied the odds so far to be mixing it with them, and you can't do that for 27 games without having something about you. We would likely need not just very poor / relegation form from here, but actually bottom of the table form to not make the playoffs, which frankly wont happen. Even the realistic worst case scenario from here sees us comfortably into the top 6.
A big part of me thinks we'll be pipped to 2nd. Not to be negative about it, I just think they've got so much quality and depth that they'll take some stopping. In fact it's quite possible that they leapfrog us this weekend given the fixtures.
Top 2 isn't impossible though. 12 wins out of 19 with a few draws thrown in would probably do it, especially if one of them is against Southampton. Either way it's going to be fascinating and we'll still have the playoffs as a consolation. |
After their next 3 games, 9 of their remaining 16 in the run in are against the current top 10. Four of those being away to WBA, Leeds, us and Leicester - I'd argue the four toughest places to go in the division.
By the time they face West Brom to start that run in on 16th Feb, we will have already played Leeds, Leicester, WBA and Sunderland twice. If we are within a win of them going into that final 16 games, we are realistically in a strong position - 5/6 points from the next 3 games would be a good haul. | | | |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 17:48 - Jan 16 with 855 views | Vegtablue |
| Next 10 games look far better on the eye than last 10 on 17:07 - Jan 16 by _clive_baker_ |
I would agree with that. I think we're very good. I think it's also true that we've been a touch unlucky to find ourselves in a division with 3 relegated sides who had all been in the premier league a while, were pretty settled squad wise, had very good players and some highly saleable assets like Maddison, Lavia, Ward-Prowse etc, and really deep pockets. None of them are a straight up, straight down proposition like a Norwich or Watford of previous years. I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 of those clubs finish on 88+ points, which I can't imagine has ever happened before.
We've obviously defied the odds so far to be mixing it with them, and you can't do that for 27 games without having something about you. We would likely need not just very poor / relegation form from here, but actually bottom of the table form to not make the playoffs, which frankly wont happen. Even the realistic worst case scenario from here sees us comfortably into the top 6.
A big part of me thinks we'll be pipped to 2nd. Not to be negative about it, I just think they've got so much quality and depth that they'll take some stopping. In fact it's quite possible that they leapfrog us this weekend given the fixtures.
Top 2 isn't impossible though. 12 wins out of 19 with a few draws thrown in would probably do it, especially if one of them is against Southampton. Either way it's going to be fascinating and we'll still have the playoffs as a consolation. |
It's the hardest Championship season ever for top two, no doubt about it.
Leicester have the 2nd highest ever total at this stage. We have the 3rd highest 2nd place total ever (beaten on GD), 11th highest overall total. Southampton have the highest 3rd place total ever, 15th overall. Leeds have the highest 4th place total ever, 33rd overall.
Leicester's total would have seen them 1st in 18 of the previous 19 seasons*, ours 1st in 12, Southampton's 1st in 9. Even Leeds' total would have seen them 1st twice, 2nd six times. Remarkable and unfortunate!
*with this being the 20th season of the Championship, and Transfermarkt's quick form table tool not stretching beyond the name change in 2004. [Post edited 16 Jan 18:09]
| | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
