| 3 options for 3 lions 01:29 - Nov 16 with 2447 views | millvalleyblue |
Town’s amazing run and momentum is something to behold and to be enjoyed. I love watching the team play. And I love the culture and winning mindset that has taken hold. I’m going to enjoy every moment and I’ve started to think about what could happen over the next 5+ years. Given the investment by Arizona’s pension fund for emergency service professionals, a key question is when they will decide is a good time to exit and sell their stake in the club for what would be a great return.
If Town go up this season or next season, I think there are a few options that they will be thinking about.
1. Sell now and avoid the risk of Town being relegated with decline in value that would result. Think Leeds.
2. Think longer term and invest further to become an established premiership team, with smart transfers and great academy program. Think Brentford.
3. Think even further ahead and invest a lot more with the goal of Champions league and contender for title. Think Liverpool.
Option 3 will sound fanciful to many. It’s clear though that something remarkable is underway at Town, and It’s interesting to think through how this could all play out.
How great would it be if they went with option 3, with Kieran McKenna managing a great trophy-winning Town side?
[Post edited 16 Nov 2023 1:30]
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 05:13 - Nov 16 with 2306 views | LA_Tractor_Boy |
Obviously we're in crystal ball territory, but I think it will be nearer '2'.
As fans we think about success on the pitch, but for investors it's all about ROI.
Private Equity firms tend to invest for a maximum of 7 years before exiting. To maximise their return, Gamechanger will hope to:
1. Establish us in the PL
2. Enhance the value of our squad
3. Redevelop Portman Road and Playford Road
Challenging for Champions League places will require too much investment and I'm not sure it's possible to compete with big city clubs these days.
My biggest fear is who Gamechanger sell to. I also think it will be at this point that Ashton and McKenna depart. I'm determined to enjoy the next few years, because we could be sat here in 2028 owned by a crook! | | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 05:37 - Nov 16 with 2290 views | MK1 |
Option 3 is 10 plus years away. Option 2 is the most likely with Gamechanger possibly cashing in once (if) we are an establish Premier League club. Option 1 is a non starter. |  | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:08 - Nov 16 with 2138 views | Guthrum |
There is an option 4, in which the pension fund takes out some or all of their money, while GC20 remains, attracting fresh investment from elsewhere. They are, after all, separate organisations. |  |
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:23 - Nov 16 with 2106 views | LA_Tractor_Boy |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:08 - Nov 16 by Guthrum |
There is an option 4, in which the pension fund takes out some or all of their money, while GC20 remains, attracting fresh investment from elsewhere. They are, after all, separate organisations. |
As fans, this would be the perfect exit strategy.
Would ensure we keep hold of our first class owners (and possibly Ashton/McKenna) | | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:24 - Nov 16 with 2096 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
I just hope we don’t get sold to a petro-state who are fine with using slave labour, and chopping peoples hands off. However, I’ve always been reluctant to criticise Newcastle fans etc, as ultimately the fans have no say.
Realistically we are run by a fund who’s goal is going to me to maximise RoI, and I would expect them to sell the the highest bidder whoever that may be (and we know the Fit and Proper checks are a joke).
Sorry for sounding like the Elephant. | | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:30 - Nov 16 with 2052 views | BloomBlue |
The pension fund will want option 1
The other options will require a lot of investment while there is an increase risk of losing a lot of money.
I also think option 3 is long gone unless you have an owner(s) who uses the club as a play thing to boost their own ego irrelevant of how much they lose.
Option 1 allows the pension fund to immediately recoup their investment with profit. |  | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:35 - Nov 16 with 2035 views | Guthrum |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:23 - Nov 16 by LA_Tractor_Boy |
As fans, this would be the perfect exit strategy.
Would ensure we keep hold of our first class owners (and possibly Ashton/McKenna) |
Some similarities to the ownership model during the Sheepshanks era. An independent board drawing investment from external sources.
I'm pretty sure that Ashton is an integral part of the GC20 setup, via Mike O'Leary. | |
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:11 - Nov 16 with 1940 views | Pinewoodblue |
The pension fund provide the financial clout, it is the intentions of the minority shareholders that matter. |  |
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:20 - Nov 16 with 1927 views | SmithersJones |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:30 - Nov 16 by BloomBlue |
The pension fund will want option 1
The other options will require a lot of investment while there is an increase risk of losing a lot of money.
I also think option 3 is long gone unless you have an owner(s) who uses the club as a play thing to boost their own ego irrelevant of how much they lose.
Option 1 allows the pension fund to immediately recoup their investment with profit. |
I tend to agree. The thing that often gets overlooked in this debate is time. The return on investment calculation will be annualised, so in simple terms selling for a £50m profit after 3 years is better than a £100m profit after 7 years.
But as always we need to remember that GC20 is the 3 Lions plus ORG (the investment fund who manage the pension pot) plus a little bit of Marcus Evans. ORG have a 90% stake in GC20. Perfectly possible that (a) they sell up and the 3 Lions stay (and have the task of finding new investors) or (b) ORG cash in some of their stake, so GC20 becomes 3 Lions + ORG + ANOther (and presumably Evans exits as well). Which is pretty much what Guthrum said apart from some details on the structure of GC20. [Post edited 16 Nov 2023 9:21]
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:20 - Nov 16 with 1916 views | Mookamoo |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:08 - Nov 16 by Guthrum |
There is an option 4, in which the pension fund takes out some or all of their money, while GC20 remains, attracting fresh investment from elsewhere. They are, after all, separate organisations. |
This is probably the option.
The pension fund will withdraw all, or most of their original investment, leaving what they have made already and invest it into something new - possibly womens sports
GC20 will then have a tempting proposition for anyone wanting to come and take town to the next level. There are a lot of opportunities to invest in Ipswich - building a new stand/bars/sports complex over Portman Road for one. |  | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:25 - Nov 16 with 1892 views | SmithersJones |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:20 - Nov 16 by Mookamoo |
This is probably the option.
The pension fund will withdraw all, or most of their original investment, leaving what they have made already and invest it into something new - possibly womens sports
GC20 will then have a tempting proposition for anyone wanting to come and take town to the next level. There are a lot of opportunities to invest in Ipswich - building a new stand/bars/sports complex over Portman Road for one. |
Your last paragraph is important and why I tend to think ORG will sell earlier than others do. There needs to be some potential upside for a new buyer, assuming they’re in it for financial reasons. If, in a perfect universe, we were able to get to option 3 in the OP then the new buyer would be purchasing a massive risk of decay with no realistic opportunity to make a return. And let’s not forget that very few clubs make a profit, even those in the Champions League, so you generally on,y make money from a football club by selling it. | | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:52 - Nov 16 with 1821 views | Guthrum |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:25 - Nov 16 by SmithersJones |
Your last paragraph is important and why I tend to think ORG will sell earlier than others do. There needs to be some potential upside for a new buyer, assuming they’re in it for financial reasons. If, in a perfect universe, we were able to get to option 3 in the OP then the new buyer would be purchasing a massive risk of decay with no realistic opportunity to make a return. And let’s not forget that very few clubs make a profit, even those in the Champions League, so you generally on,y make money from a football club by selling it. |
Unless you have money to burn and/or are buying a club for other reasons (c.f. Newcastle).
I also think ORG will look to take out some of their capital/return earlier in the process (should we continue to climb into and up through the Prem). It's the perfect time. Funds will be available and GC20 could potentially buy back shares from the club income. | |
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:56 - Nov 16 with 1805 views | Rimsy |
Get us up and established in the pl. Then Ed buys them out, perfect. |  |
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 10:09 - Nov 16 with 1763 views | Parsley |
I think Liverpool would be a bit of a stretch, but something along the lines of Brighton, Aston Villa, West Ham, or Leicester in recent seasons might not be out of reach. There's an opportunity for stabilisation in the Premier League and challenge for Europa/Conference League qualification.
Given the investment in the stadium and training ground I think they are here for the medium term, a few years. Wait until the development of these has reached a certain point and then becomes part of the value for the club for future investors. |  | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 11:17 - Nov 16 with 1673 views | Guthrum |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:20 - Nov 16 by SmithersJones |
I tend to agree. The thing that often gets overlooked in this debate is time. The return on investment calculation will be annualised, so in simple terms selling for a £50m profit after 3 years is better than a £100m profit after 7 years.
But as always we need to remember that GC20 is the 3 Lions plus ORG (the investment fund who manage the pension pot) plus a little bit of Marcus Evans. ORG have a 90% stake in GC20. Perfectly possible that (a) they sell up and the 3 Lions stay (and have the task of finding new investors) or (b) ORG cash in some of their stake, so GC20 becomes 3 Lions + ORG + ANOther (and presumably Evans exits as well). Which is pretty much what Guthrum said apart from some details on the structure of GC20. [Post edited 16 Nov 2023 9:21]
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I had made the assumption that ORG has a seat on the board by virtue of being the main investor, rather than being an core element of the GC20 project from the start (which I took to be O'Leary plus the Three Lions).
But yes, a partial sale would allow them to start getting money out sooner. | |
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 16:00 - Nov 16 with 1349 views | ChampionsofInnsbruck |
Given what they have spent over the three seasons, they will not make a return on that with one promotion surely? While the books are healthy, they have spent a fair whack from the start of Cooks demolition man act onwards, including paying off two managers! |  | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 16:05 - Nov 16 with 1334 views | SouthfieldsBlue |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 09:20 - Nov 16 by Mookamoo |
This is probably the option.
The pension fund will withdraw all, or most of their original investment, leaving what they have made already and invest it into something new - possibly womens sports
GC20 will then have a tempting proposition for anyone wanting to come and take town to the next level. There are a lot of opportunities to invest in Ipswich - building a new stand/bars/sports complex over Portman Road for one. |
Whilst selling the club does get them their investment and additional cash back its not the only way. A Premier League club can make profit and pay dividends, admittedly it is only Man Utd and West Brom who've done this in recent years but it is a potential option, especially in the medium term if no buyer could be found. | | | |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 17:58 - Nov 16 with 1176 views | factual_blue |
We have once before gone from what is now called League One to what is now the Premier League with back-to-back promotions. And look what happened next..... |  |
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| 3 options for 3 lions on 18:19 - Nov 16 with 1114 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| 3 options for 3 lions on 08:08 - Nov 16 by Guthrum |
There is an option 4, in which the pension fund takes out some or all of their money, while GC20 remains, attracting fresh investment from elsewhere. They are, after all, separate organisations. |
There's also an option for the Pension Fund to sell a percentage of their stake if we gain promotion, get their money back, and keep the rest of their stake as a free play from then on. | | | |
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