| This weeks by elections 10:17 - Jul 18 with 2877 views | Pinewoodblue |
Anyone care to predict the outcome.
Obviously Tories get a bashing, but it maybe due more to Tories not voting.
Will go for a 3 way split. 1 Lab; 1 LibDem; 1 Tory.
Uxbridge will be the Labour gain, candidate doing a lot of u turning especially on Ulez which he previously supported and now opposes. |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 11:42 - Jul 18 with 2433 views | Guthrum |
By-elections are always odd, because turnout is usually much lower than in a General Election. I suspect it will be reduced even further this time, with Conservatives disillusioned and some Labour supporters also.
Somerton & Frome will probably go to the LibDems, according to my political contacts in Somerset (who aren't Tories, so may be biased). |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 11:56 - Jul 18 with 2410 views | HARRY10 |
You probably mean the results.
I think it is more 'a hammering', if previous by elections and the last two local elections are anything to go by. It should be borne in mind that were the change in vote required, carried right across the board in a GE it would amount to the Tories being reduced to below 100 seats..
However, whether the Tories lose all three will not change the make up of Parliament, and it is fairly academic when set against the current polling. Much conjecture will follow, but it really boils down to the current Prime Miniature (Sunak) not having the moral authority to govern.
Being elected as second choice by a small number of party members who include those not allowed to vote in any UK Parliamentary election, be it they are non UK citizens or under the voting age, makes a mockery of democracy.
There needs to be a GE no later than this autumn. Dorries clinging on to leech more pay pretty much sums up the Tory mindset. Possibly the most venal, incompetent and dishonest government since the days of the rotten boroughs. |  | | |
| This weeks by elections on 12:10 - Jul 18 with 2388 views | Herbivore |
Turnout will be low, all of the parties will claim the results as a massive success regardless of the outcome. |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 12:31 - Jul 18 with 2340 views | J2BLUE |
| This weeks by elections on 11:42 - Jul 18 by Guthrum |
By-elections are always odd, because turnout is usually much lower than in a General Election. I suspect it will be reduced even further this time, with Conservatives disillusioned and some Labour supporters also.
Somerton & Frome will probably go to the LibDems, according to my political contacts in Somerset (who aren't Tories, so may be biased). |
To be fair, the Lib Dems are 1/100 to win that one on the exchanges so it's pretty safe. |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 13:00 - Jul 18 with 2273 views | Devereuxxx |
It says a lot that it looks almost a given that Somerton & Frome will go to the Lib Dems which which will require overturning a tory vote share of +19,000.
The other two are looking very interesting. Umbridge and Ruislip looks eminently winnable for Labour but it comes down to how much they have been kneecapped by the ULEZ extension, while Shelby and Ainsty would require a historic vote swing. The amount of resources Labour are chucking into to Shelby indicates they believe it is winnable, perhaps even more so than Uxbridge. If they don't win Johnson's old constituency, they can blame it on a split vote due to all the ULEZ independents. If they don't win Shelby and Ainsty, they will have less of an excuse, apart from 'we're not quite as popular as we thought'.
If they lose both I can see Labour diving into crisis mode. Perhaps they might even consider repealing policies which starve children. |  | | |
| This weeks by elections on 13:06 - Jul 18 with 2257 views | Guthrum |
| This weeks by elections on 12:31 - Jul 18 by J2BLUE |
To be fair, the Lib Dems are 1/100 to win that one on the exchanges so it's pretty safe. |
Tho it was a pretty hefty majority for the Cons in 2015, 2017 and 2019, LibDem marginal for 20 years before that. | |
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| This weeks by elections on 13:12 - Jul 18 with 2239 views | HARRY10 |
It's really a no loose for the opposition. If the swing against the Tories is not so big as is bing claimed, then it is hardly a victory.
These are not marginals, where disgruntled voters might tip the balance in favour of the opposition, but in such safe seats that it will scare the heebee jeebies out of a few hundred current Tory MPs, as in......if the voters can turn us out here the swing means I will easily lose my seat.
I suspect the turn out will be higher than in other by-elections, pre 2021 that is.
Education ministers Gillian Keegan's 'let them eat cake' idiot comments this morning, trying to defend privilege won't change voters minds, but will merely re inforce the view that this is a completely out of touch government. | | | |
| This weeks by elections on 13:23 - Jul 18 with 2211 views | giant_stow |
| This weeks by elections on 13:06 - Jul 18 by Guthrum |
Tho it was a pretty hefty majority for the Cons in 2015, 2017 and 2019, LibDem marginal for 20 years before that. |
There's been a big influx of new people to Frome in recent years (sometimes to the annoyance of the locals) and I would guess most of those will be on the more progressive side.. |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 15:28 - Jul 18 with 2117 views | HARRY10 |
"Labour up four on 48 per cent, with the Conservatives down two in 24, according to the latest voting intention poll by Deltapoll."18th July
run this numbers through electoral calculus and you have
Con 58
Lab 518
This is a couple of points off the Truss brexit nightmare
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oHcxlAbkTJmqfOxYQM22cvjjjRf5pETIF30x7L-q
And not since the Major government have Labour been so high in the polls. The concern for the Tories is they were steadily pulling back, and were averaging in the low 30% 18 months before the 1997 GE. NOT 24%.
That is where the real concern lies, as it means that the Tories have lost around 45% of their vote in three years. Smoothing out the predictable blips, and it has been a steady decline since 4 months after the bloater took office.
It is worth noticing that the Tory vote had been steadily climbing before the gutbucket was elected. Looking at the charts the 2109 election does not register any deviation from that increase. From March 2020 at 51%, pulling back for the first few months of 2021, to an almost record low of 24% currently.
Where is the moral authority of a PM supported by less than a quarter of the electorate and only voted in by 60,000 party members (with a number of those not entitled to vote in a UK GE) ?
Whether the results surpass or fall below what is being suggested is really material and should not distract from the reality of having a government, with the most tenuous links to democracy, failing at pretty much every turn.
It has yet again moved away from the nonsense of brexit as it has relaxed the rules on visas, this time for building workers. Brexit will be seen in action yet again in the queues at Dover this weekend.
Time to go Sunak, and take that ragbag of incompetent shysters with you. | | | |
| This weeks by elections on 16:32 - Jul 18 with 2082 views | Oldsmoker |
After the election.
Mock the Week (sadly gone) would have had "Things you wouldn't say after a massive humiliation in local by-elections".
"We only lost 3 seats. We still have a 60+ seat majority. Nothing can stop us in our pursuit of Facist Utopia. Heil Sunak" |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 16:49 - Jul 18 with 2073 views | HotShotHamish |
| This weeks by elections on 11:56 - Jul 18 by HARRY10 |
You probably mean the results.
I think it is more 'a hammering', if previous by elections and the last two local elections are anything to go by. It should be borne in mind that were the change in vote required, carried right across the board in a GE it would amount to the Tories being reduced to below 100 seats..
However, whether the Tories lose all three will not change the make up of Parliament, and it is fairly academic when set against the current polling. Much conjecture will follow, but it really boils down to the current Prime Miniature (Sunak) not having the moral authority to govern.
Being elected as second choice by a small number of party members who include those not allowed to vote in any UK Parliamentary election, be it they are non UK citizens or under the voting age, makes a mockery of democracy.
There needs to be a GE no later than this autumn. Dorries clinging on to leech more pay pretty much sums up the Tory mindset. Possibly the most venal, incompetent and dishonest government since the days of the rotten boroughs. |
You clearly are no believer in democracy. The government was given a 5-year term and you cannot change that just beacuse you believe them to not be popular.
And whilst your pondering that and thinking of new ways to slag off your political opponents maybe you could consider where Nick Brown has been for the past year, and why he still draws his salary? | | | |
| This weeks by elections on 16:57 - Jul 18 with 2052 views | Herbivore |
| This weeks by elections on 16:49 - Jul 18 by HotShotHamish |
You clearly are no believer in democracy. The government was given a 5-year term and you cannot change that just beacuse you believe them to not be popular.
And whilst your pondering that and thinking of new ways to slag off your political opponents maybe you could consider where Nick Brown has been for the past year, and why he still draws his salary? |
Not sure it's right to criticise someone for suggesting there should be an early GE when (a) it is evident that the government is doing a terrible job and has lost the confidence of most of the country, (b) said government is on its third PM since winning the last GE, with neither of the previous two having been given authority by the whole electorate, and (c) when said government was happy to make us go to the ballot box three times in a little over four years when it suited their own political ends. Really not sure this government or its supporters are in any position to lecture anyone on believing in democracy. [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 17:14]
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| This weeks by elections on 17:51 - Jul 18 with 2011 views | Darth_Koont |
Lots of mention of Sir Kid Starver.
And why not? It’s pretty good. |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 18:46 - Jul 18 with 1931 views | DJR |
| This weeks by elections on 17:51 - Jul 18 by Darth_Koont |
Lots of mention of Sir Kid Starver.
And why not? It’s pretty good. |
I don't really support what I regard as personal abuse, but I suppose it has parallels with the abolition of free milk in schools in 1970 which led to the chant "Thatcher, Thatcher, milk snatcher".
For what it's worth, I remember free milk in my primary school in the 1960s. It came in one-third pint glass bottles, but the problem with it was that it was too hot in summer, and ice cold in winter (when winters were cold). [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 18:53]
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| This weeks by elections on 19:06 - Jul 18 with 1846 views | redrickstuhaart |
| This weeks by elections on 13:23 - Jul 18 by giant_stow |
There's been a big influx of new people to Frome in recent years (sometimes to the annoyance of the locals) and I would guess most of those will be on the more progressive side.. |
"Make Frome shi t again"
As can be seen on a number of bumper stickers. | | | |
| This weeks by elections on 19:12 - Jul 18 with 1834 views | GlasgowBlue |
| This weeks by elections on 18:46 - Jul 18 by DJR |
I don't really support what I regard as personal abuse, but I suppose it has parallels with the abolition of free milk in schools in 1970 which led to the chant "Thatcher, Thatcher, milk snatcher".
For what it's worth, I remember free milk in my primary school in the 1960s. It came in one-third pint glass bottles, but the problem with it was that it was too hot in summer, and ice cold in winter (when winters were cold). [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 18:53]
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The irony being that as Education Secretary, Thatcher fought to keep free school milk but was overruled by Heath and his cabinet.
Collective responsibility ensured that Thatcher took the blame for a policy she didn't support.
Wilson's Labour government took free school milk away from all 11 to 18 year olds in 1968. The Heath government abolished free school milk for children aged 8 to 11 in 1971. In 1977 it was Labour's Shirley Williams who abolished free school milk for 5-7 year olds, but I guess her name didn't rhyme with anything. [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 19:32]
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| This weeks by elections on 19:14 - Jul 18 with 1832 views | Darth_Koont |
| This weeks by elections on 18:46 - Jul 18 by DJR |
I don't really support what I regard as personal abuse, but I suppose it has parallels with the abolition of free milk in schools in 1970 which led to the chant "Thatcher, Thatcher, milk snatcher".
For what it's worth, I remember free milk in my primary school in the 1960s. It came in one-third pint glass bottles, but the problem with it was that it was too hot in summer, and ice cold in winter (when winters were cold). [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 18:53]
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Me neither. Although, if it was good enough for Starmer when Sunak was on the receiving end (not as accurately or amusingly either) then there can’t be many complaints here.
The sad thing is that stuff like this will work much more than covering the actual detail of Starmer’s untrustworthiness as a person and his lack of vision or solutions as a leader.
Yeah, the Milk Snatcher resonance was my first reaction. | |
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| This weeks by elections on 19:29 - Jul 18 with 1785 views | BlueBadger |
| This weeks by elections on 16:49 - Jul 18 by HotShotHamish |
You clearly are no believer in democracy. The government was given a 5-year term and you cannot change that just beacuse you believe them to not be popular.
And whilst your pondering that and thinking of new ways to slag off your political opponents maybe you could consider where Nick Brown has been for the past year, and why he still draws his salary? |
What is it you like best about the Tories? The bigotry, the incompetence, the corruption or the open criminality? |  |
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| This weeks by elections on 19:39 - Jul 18 with 1771 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| This weeks by elections on 16:57 - Jul 18 by Herbivore |
Not sure it's right to criticise someone for suggesting there should be an early GE when (a) it is evident that the government is doing a terrible job and has lost the confidence of most of the country, (b) said government is on its third PM since winning the last GE, with neither of the previous two having been given authority by the whole electorate, and (c) when said government was happy to make us go to the ballot box three times in a little over four years when it suited their own political ends. Really not sure this government or its supporters are in any position to lecture anyone on believing in democracy. [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 17:14]
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Don't forget that they also:
Illegally closed down Parliament (that's such a big one that nobody should ever forget it, and nobody should ever vote for them again, really)
Sunak has been admonished for undermining Parliament by announcing Government business in Press Conferences rather than at the Dispatch Box.
7 Tory Parliamentarians were named as having interfered in the proceedings of a Committee, and harassed members of the Committee.
That Committee was of course investigating the person who led the Tories to victory at the last General Election, who was found to have lied to Parliament to the extent that he was suspended for a sufficiently long period to trigger a Recall.
We can add in other such anti-democratic practices as removing the independence of the Electoral Commission, removing the right of Judges to Review Ministerial decisions, the massive increase of law making by Ministerial decision rather than Parliamentary process, the Cambridge Analytica scandal, the refusal to publish Parliamentary Committee reports, bribing the DUP to support them (with enough cash to cover the Arlene Foster renewables shortfall, conveniently) and, last but not least, the Politicisation of Police Forces and swingeing attacks on the rights to both assemble and protest.
So, yes, plenty of reason for people who genuinely care about democracy to want them gone as soon as possible. | | | |
| This weeks by elections on 19:41 - Jul 18 with 1767 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| This weeks by elections on 16:49 - Jul 18 by HotShotHamish |
You clearly are no believer in democracy. The government was given a 5-year term and you cannot change that just beacuse you believe them to not be popular.
And whilst your pondering that and thinking of new ways to slag off your political opponents maybe you could consider where Nick Brown has been for the past year, and why he still draws his salary? |
Simple question: how many times do you think a Party Membership should be allowed to change the Prime Minister before a new General Election is required? | | | |
| This weeks by elections on 19:45 - Jul 18 with 1762 views | Pinewoodblue |
| This weeks by elections on 16:49 - Jul 18 by HotShotHamish |
You clearly are no believer in democracy. The government was given a 5-year term and you cannot change that just beacuse you believe them to not be popular.
And whilst your pondering that and thinking of new ways to slag off your political opponents maybe you could consider where Nick Brown has been for the past year, and why he still draws his salary? |
There are now more independent MPs that LibDems due to so many either resigning the whip, or having it withdrawn. Involves both major parties .
Not a satisfactory situation. | |
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| This weeks by elections on 19:59 - Jul 18 with 1731 views | GlasgowBlue |
| This weeks by elections on 19:41 - Jul 18 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Simple question: how many times do you think a Party Membership should be allowed to change the Prime Minister before a new General Election is required? |
By the letter of the law, as many times as they like. If they had any honour though, once Truss resigned then Sunak should have committed to going to the country within six months in order to secure a mandate.
However, as per my first sentence, we don't elect Prime Ministers. We elect members of Parliament, and the party which can command a majority of those MP's is legally entitled to form a government until the next election is due. | |
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| This weeks by elections on 21:09 - Jul 18 with 1658 views | DJR |
| This weeks by elections on 19:12 - Jul 18 by GlasgowBlue |
The irony being that as Education Secretary, Thatcher fought to keep free school milk but was overruled by Heath and his cabinet.
Collective responsibility ensured that Thatcher took the blame for a policy she didn't support.
Wilson's Labour government took free school milk away from all 11 to 18 year olds in 1968. The Heath government abolished free school milk for children aged 8 to 11 in 1971. In 1977 it was Labour's Shirley Williams who abolished free school milk for 5-7 year olds, but I guess her name didn't rhyme with anything. [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 19:32]
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Whilst I disagreed with her politically, Mrs Thatcher was a person of principle and integrity, as were most politicians in those days. She was also a great believer in the Civil Service.
Sadly, the same isn't necessarily true these days, especially in the current Tory party. [Post edited 18 Jul 2023 21:10]
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| This weeks by elections on 21:14 - Jul 18 with 1646 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| This weeks by elections on 19:59 - Jul 18 by GlasgowBlue |
By the letter of the law, as many times as they like. If they had any honour though, once Truss resigned then Sunak should have committed to going to the country within six months in order to secure a mandate.
However, as per my first sentence, we don't elect Prime Ministers. We elect members of Parliament, and the party which can command a majority of those MP's is legally entitled to form a government until the next election is due. |
Yes, I know, but we also do, don't we? Although the interesting point there is that the "commands the confidence of the House" rubric implies that it should be MPs who elect their leader, not Tory Party members.
One change is understandable, but two, when the Party membership had made such a bad job of the previous choice, is really not acceptable.
Of course, if it hadn't been possible for Tory MPs to depose Johnson without triggering a General Election then there is the very real possibility that they wouldn't have held him to any sort of account, so I suppose I should be grateful for that one, small, mercy. | | | |
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