| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit 15:32 - Sep 4 with 6905 views | Herbivore |
And in particular whether it is actually something the public supports (the short answer is that it isn't). Also sheds light on why Alexander de Pfeffel Johnson is so desperate to blame the EU for a no deal, it makes it an easier sell: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49551893 |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:25 - Sep 4 with 2099 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:08 - Sep 4 by Herbivore |
Nope. You can't have a binary unspecified leave or remain referendum at all, not even as a first stage. That's what created the mess in the first place. There needs to be a concrete leave option or options to vote on. |
That proposal would have a concrete leave option - 2 in fact [Post edited 4 Sep 2019 21:25]
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:27 - Sep 4 with 2097 views | Ryorry |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 16:27 - Sep 4 by DanTheMan |
"You hear people constantly talking about getting Brexit over and done with. I wonder how many of them understand that if we leave we'll be entering a state of perma-Brexit with negotiations for the next 5-10 years. And likely Brexit recriminations for the next 20."
This is a pet peeve of mine. Politics and trade are not a form of entertainment. There are not supposed to be interesting, so the fact you find them boring is neither here nor there.
And as you say, this is just the withdrawal bill! Imagine the fun when we actually have to start the proper negotiations. |
Must say I was thinking yesterday evening of how very much more dramatic the day had been in Parliament than anything showing on TV that day or night! Then this eve, very interesting Front Row (arts review prog, 7.15 on R4) on the sheer theatre of Brexit & Westminster, likening it variously to Greek Tragedy, Shakespearian Tragedy, and Brian Rix farces!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qsq5 |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:40 - Sep 4 with 2066 views | Herbivore |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:25 - Sep 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
That proposal would have a concrete leave option - 2 in fact [Post edited 4 Sep 2019 21:25]
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Only after you ask a remain versus unspecified leave question. That is problematic. Let's say the first question yields a result of 51/49 in favour of leave and that 49% of those who want to leave want a deal and 51% want no deal. You end up with a quarter of the people getting what they want and a significant majority being very disgruntled. You can't just assume that all leave voters want any version of leave.
If there are to be three options on there, and personally I question the sanity of allowing no deal onto the ballot anyway, the only reasonable means to do so is preference voting as I outlined previously. | |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:49 - Sep 4 with 2043 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:40 - Sep 4 by Herbivore |
Only after you ask a remain versus unspecified leave question. That is problematic. Let's say the first question yields a result of 51/49 in favour of leave and that 49% of those who want to leave want a deal and 51% want no deal. You end up with a quarter of the people getting what they want and a significant majority being very disgruntled. You can't just assume that all leave voters want any version of leave.
If there are to be three options on there, and personally I question the sanity of allowing no deal onto the ballot anyway, the only reasonable means to do so is preference voting as I outlined previously. |
There is an answer in a single transferable vote between the 3 options.
The most alarming thing about the OP is there are a significant percentage of people who appear to recognise no deal is a bad thing and still want it.
I think some of those "leavers" who voted on the poll for no deal think they are supporting BoJo's leverage in negotiation rubbish that he keeps spouting. |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:58 - Sep 4 with 2039 views | caught-in-limbo |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:27 - Sep 4 by Ryorry |
Must say I was thinking yesterday evening of how very much more dramatic the day had been in Parliament than anything showing on TV that day or night! Then this eve, very interesting Front Row (arts review prog, 7.15 on R4) on the sheer theatre of Brexit & Westminster, likening it variously to Greek Tragedy, Shakespearian Tragedy, and Brian Rix farces!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qsq5 |
Interesting link. Shame the host of the show cut off the woman (5:26-5:56) as she suggested that Brexit was scripted.
#enjoytheshow
#broughttoyoubythebbc |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 23:50 - Sep 4 with 2004 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 21:40 - Sep 4 by Herbivore |
Only after you ask a remain versus unspecified leave question. That is problematic. Let's say the first question yields a result of 51/49 in favour of leave and that 49% of those who want to leave want a deal and 51% want no deal. You end up with a quarter of the people getting what they want and a significant majority being very disgruntled. You can't just assume that all leave voters want any version of leave.
If there are to be three options on there, and personally I question the sanity of allowing no deal onto the ballot anyway, the only reasonable means to do so is preference voting as I outlined previously. |
Ah sorry I misread your suggestion. That does make sense, although I think it could prove too complicated for some portions of the electorate | |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 23:59 - Sep 4 with 2000 views | Tonytown |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 23:50 - Sep 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Ah sorry I misread your suggestion. That does make sense, although I think it could prove too complicated for some portions of the electorate |
You mean the leave voters don’t you?
Walks away quietly..... |  | | |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 00:22 - Sep 5 with 1990 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 23:59 - Sep 4 by Tonytown |
You mean the leave voters don’t you?
Walks away quietly..... |
Not really, no | |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 06:47 - Sep 5 with 1953 views | Churchman |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 16:46 - Sep 4 by Steve_M |
This is also worth reading, explains why things are such a mess: neither May or Johnson have really been prepared to deal with the compromises that Brexit requires.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/peter-foster-brexit-longread
May did eventually but only having boxed herself in with incompatible red lines which lead to the fudge of the original deal. |
I agree, this is well worth reading. It’s well written and gives a good idea of the sequence of events that got us to where we are. It also gives a clue as to some of the complexities of Brexit and the basic lack of understanding the government on just about every aspect.
If prior to the referendum, Cameron had bothered to find out how the UKs relationship with Europe worked (legally and operationally), what the potential impact of Brexit in varying forms might be on the UK and Europe and some options, he could have gone to them with a far stronger negotiating hand in June 2016. If the EU had still humiliated him, he could have gone to the electorate with substantive proposals - and possibly retained his precious job. But then listening was never the governments strongest point any more than it was with May or the current idiot now.
Again, had May bothered to learn from Cameron’s mistake and got the work done before Article 50 was triggered and before any election, she would have been in a far stronger position. That the govt went into negotiation in 2017 without the faintest idea how cross border trade worked or even what a customs union was tells its own story. |  | | |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:41 - Sep 5 with 1924 views | Herbivore |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 23:50 - Sep 4 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Ah sorry I misread your suggestion. That does make sense, although I think it could prove too complicated for some portions of the electorate |
It shouldn't do. You're just putting numbers into boxes rather than crosses. We already have elections where you vote for more than one option. I don't really see a fairer way if there is to be three options on the ballot. | |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:53 - Sep 5 with 1917 views | Darth_Koont |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 16:46 - Sep 4 by Steve_M |
This is also worth reading, explains why things are such a mess: neither May or Johnson have really been prepared to deal with the compromises that Brexit requires.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/peter-foster-brexit-longread
May did eventually but only having boxed herself in with incompatible red lines which lead to the fudge of the original deal. |
The last three years would have been dramatically different if May hadn't taken a hard Brexit, almost no deal, position as soon as she took over.
Of course, it was to play to the crowd within her party and the hardline Brexiteers of UKIP/soon to be Brexit Party. But it has backfired horribly.
The narrow 52-48 margin was utterly built for a more sober discussion aimed at achieving consensus. And the Irish border situation could then have become a tool for arriving at such an arrangement.
As an approach that decision to go hardcore was even worse than Cameron's glib offer of a referendum. She at least knew what was ahead and what the result implied. If she and her advisers didn't then that's even more worrying. |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:53 - Sep 5 with 1915 views | Steve_M |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 06:47 - Sep 5 by Churchman |
I agree, this is well worth reading. It’s well written and gives a good idea of the sequence of events that got us to where we are. It also gives a clue as to some of the complexities of Brexit and the basic lack of understanding the government on just about every aspect.
If prior to the referendum, Cameron had bothered to find out how the UKs relationship with Europe worked (legally and operationally), what the potential impact of Brexit in varying forms might be on the UK and Europe and some options, he could have gone to them with a far stronger negotiating hand in June 2016. If the EU had still humiliated him, he could have gone to the electorate with substantive proposals - and possibly retained his precious job. But then listening was never the governments strongest point any more than it was with May or the current idiot now.
Again, had May bothered to learn from Cameron’s mistake and got the work done before Article 50 was triggered and before any election, she would have been in a far stronger position. That the govt went into negotiation in 2017 without the faintest idea how cross border trade worked or even what a customs union was tells its own story. |
As much as anything else, Cameron assumed he would win the referendum easily and put very little thought into it. Examples include: allowing such major constitutional change on a simple majority, no account taken of the preferences of the individual nations (NI voted to remain which is often forgotten) and a very loosely worded question that was changed to placate leave campaigners.
As usual, he and Osborne were good political tacticians but never looked at a longer-term view.
Cameron actually got some reasonable concessions from the rest of the EU - opt outs for in-work benefits for one - but didn't even bother to try and sell those to the British public. |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:57 - Sep 5 with 1910 views | Darth_Koont |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:53 - Sep 5 by Steve_M |
As much as anything else, Cameron assumed he would win the referendum easily and put very little thought into it. Examples include: allowing such major constitutional change on a simple majority, no account taken of the preferences of the individual nations (NI voted to remain which is often forgotten) and a very loosely worded question that was changed to placate leave campaigners.
As usual, he and Osborne were good political tacticians but never looked at a longer-term view.
Cameron actually got some reasonable concessions from the rest of the EU - opt outs for in-work benefits for one - but didn't even bother to try and sell those to the British public. |
Indeed. The Leavers line that the talks had failed and there was no dealing with the EU became the accepted narrative mainly because it was toxic for Cameron to even suggest that concessions had in fact been made.
That's how much the EU have been demonised and lied about by our press and politicians over the past few decades. | |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 08:30 - Sep 5 with 1885 views | Churchman |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:53 - Sep 5 by Steve_M |
As much as anything else, Cameron assumed he would win the referendum easily and put very little thought into it. Examples include: allowing such major constitutional change on a simple majority, no account taken of the preferences of the individual nations (NI voted to remain which is often forgotten) and a very loosely worded question that was changed to placate leave campaigners.
As usual, he and Osborne were good political tacticians but never looked at a longer-term view.
Cameron actually got some reasonable concessions from the rest of the EU - opt outs for in-work benefits for one - but didn't even bother to try and sell those to the British public. |
You are right about Cameron assuming he would win the referendum easily. He buried his head in the sand because he knew he was right. Ooops. He was so certain that any suggestion of work to scope out what brexit might look like was not an option.
I knew what Cameron and Osborne were so I wasn’t surprised. What did surprise me was that May didn’t learn the lessons and triggered article 50 with no idea of the consequences. She had time and a majority on her side too. Staggering incompetence | | | |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 08:34 - Sep 5 with 1880 views | itfcjoe |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:53 - Sep 5 by Darth_Koont |
The last three years would have been dramatically different if May hadn't taken a hard Brexit, almost no deal, position as soon as she took over.
Of course, it was to play to the crowd within her party and the hardline Brexiteers of UKIP/soon to be Brexit Party. But it has backfired horribly.
The narrow 52-48 margin was utterly built for a more sober discussion aimed at achieving consensus. And the Irish border situation could then have become a tool for arriving at such an arrangement.
As an approach that decision to go hardcore was even worse than Cameron's glib offer of a referendum. She at least knew what was ahead and what the result implied. If she and her advisers didn't then that's even more worrying. |
She went after the ERG and they were the ones who still would stab her in the back.
Needed a Norway style option and we'd be well out of it by now |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 10:01 - Sep 5 with 1844 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:53 - Sep 5 by Darth_Koont |
The last three years would have been dramatically different if May hadn't taken a hard Brexit, almost no deal, position as soon as she took over.
Of course, it was to play to the crowd within her party and the hardline Brexiteers of UKIP/soon to be Brexit Party. But it has backfired horribly.
The narrow 52-48 margin was utterly built for a more sober discussion aimed at achieving consensus. And the Irish border situation could then have become a tool for arriving at such an arrangement.
As an approach that decision to go hardcore was even worse than Cameron's glib offer of a referendum. She at least knew what was ahead and what the result implied. If she and her advisers didn't then that's even more worrying. |
Oh yeah, she backed herself into a corner straight away and conceded all the negotiating advantage to the EU. As Sir Ivan Rodgers put it, 'we kicked off in a European Cup final already 2-0 down' (or words to that effect). |  |
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 10:44 - Sep 5 with 1827 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 07:41 - Sep 5 by Herbivore |
It shouldn't do. You're just putting numbers into boxes rather than crosses. We already have elections where you vote for more than one option. I don't really see a fairer way if there is to be three options on the ballot. |
Those elections simply mean voting more than once rather than stating preferences, and I can tell you first hand as someone who runs a polling station on Election days and has helped with past counts that even that definitely does cause some confusion [Post edited 5 Sep 2019 10:44]
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| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 13:45 - Sep 5 with 1801 views | Ryorry |
| Interesting piece on no deal Brexit on 08:30 - Sep 5 by Churchman |
You are right about Cameron assuming he would win the referendum easily. He buried his head in the sand because he knew he was right. Ooops. He was so certain that any suggestion of work to scope out what brexit might look like was not an option.
I knew what Cameron and Osborne were so I wasn’t surprised. What did surprise me was that May didn’t learn the lessons and triggered article 50 with no idea of the consequences. She had time and a majority on her side too. Staggering incompetence |
And that despite Cameron being given a friendly but serious warning by Tusk that offering the UK a Referendum on this was a hugely risky gamble which could have devastating consequences.
Other countries offering Referendums on single issues only do it on the basis that it must have a 70-30 or at least 60-40 minimum majority to be carried. Gobsmacking stupidity, incompetence, arrogance that DC allowed ours to go ahead. | |
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