| Just a thought... on 11:17 - May 31 with 468 views | flimflam |
| Just a thought... on 12:26 - May 28 by Guthrum |
If it worked like that*, they'd still only have 30.5% of MPs, about 198, way short of the 322 needed for an effective governing majority (given Sinn Fein don't take up their seats). Even if the remains of the Conservatives (8.8%, 57 seats) joined them, it would be not even close. The DUP might join in with their 10 seats, but nobody else.
A LibDem-Green-Change alliance would outnumber them and be more likely to attract a confidence and supply agreement with the SNP and Labour to get a working majority.
* It doesn't.
1) Turnout in EU elections is between half and two-thirds of that in a GE, favouring the more activist parties (i.e. not the big two).
2) Labour and Conservative support tends to be concentrated in specific areas, whereas Brexit, the LibDems and Greens are spread more evenly, which does not help them under FPTP.
3) General Elections are fought on many issues other than Brexit. The BP's positions on other matters (or their unwillingness to discuss them) will be damaging, whereas Tories and Labour will gain.
4) Farage and the BP have no track record on running the country. Very few have held ministerial positions (even Widdecombe was never in the Cabinet). [Post edited 28 May 2019 12:29]
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Yes it was only the EU election and a low turnout etc but BP would have won 414 seats if this was broken down into constituencies. Who is to say they would not do the same in a higher turnout GE?
Probably not but they need to be taken seriously and voters will not be fooled this time by switching back to the tories as remember what happened last time and where it has led us to be today.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1134150/Brexit-news-brexit-party-nigel-f |  |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| Just a thought... on 11:20 - May 31 with 468 views | Steve_M |
| Just a thought... on 11:17 - May 31 by flimflam |
Yes it was only the EU election and a low turnout etc but BP would have won 414 seats if this was broken down into constituencies. Who is to say they would not do the same in a higher turnout GE?
Probably not but they need to be taken seriously and voters will not be fooled this time by switching back to the tories as remember what happened last time and where it has led us to be today.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1134150/Brexit-news-brexit-party-nigel-f |
414 seats? Who told the Express that, the ghost of Diana?
For context Blair won 419 seats in 1997. |  |
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| Just a thought... on 11:30 - May 31 with 460 views | flimflam |
| Just a thought... on 11:20 - May 31 by Steve_M |
414 seats? Who told the Express that, the ghost of Diana?
For context Blair won 419 seats in 1997. |
Agree most probably not an exact science but they topped everywhere apart from London and Scotland, didnt contest Ireland.
Makes them dangerous in a FPTP election and cannot be ignored. | |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| Just a thought... on 11:55 - May 31 with 443 views | Herbivore |
| Just a thought... on 11:30 - May 31 by flimflam |
Agree most probably not an exact science but they topped everywhere apart from London and Scotland, didnt contest Ireland.
Makes them dangerous in a FPTP election and cannot be ignored. |
They got just over 5m votes, in a GE that would put them on somwhere around 15-20% of the vote. Given their vote share is widely distributed they wouldn't get close to a majority of seats. Look at UKIP in 2014 and 2015 for comparison, the voter base is essentially the same. |  |
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| Just a thought... on 13:23 - May 31 with 434 views | flimflam |
| Just a thought... on 11:55 - May 31 by Herbivore |
They got just over 5m votes, in a GE that would put them on somwhere around 15-20% of the vote. Given their vote share is widely distributed they wouldn't get close to a majority of seats. Look at UKIP in 2014 and 2015 for comparison, the voter base is essentially the same. |
So none of the extra votes in a GE will go to them. OK. | |
| All men and women are created, by the, you know the, you know the thing. |
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| Just a thought... on 13:31 - May 31 with 430 views | WeWereZombies |
| Just a thought... on 13:23 - May 31 by flimflam |
So none of the extra votes in a GE will go to them. OK. |
In fairness, UKIP lost less votes than The Brexit Party gained so there must have been a marked haemorrhaging from the Conservatives too. Whether that would be reflected in a General Election depends on the switch from a form of proportional representation back to first past the post, a cooling off of the protest vote, events between the two elections and, perhaps most significantly, who the new Conservative leader is. |  |
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| Just a thought... on 16:47 - May 31 with 415 views | Herbivore |
| Just a thought... on 13:23 - May 31 by flimflam |
So none of the extra votes in a GE will go to them. OK. |
Some will, but not enough. Farage did a good job of getting those who support his cause out in the EU elections. Do you think there's another 5m voters out there for him? I seriously doubt it. | |
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| Just a thought... on 06:35 - Jun 1 with 385 views | m14_blue |
Did you really look at that meme and think ‘oh that’s a good one, that’ll really show all the libs on TWTD’ must share ASAP.
Really?
Really?
Jesus |  | | |
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