| A 2nd referendum then 18:38 - Dec 11 with 8413 views | homer_123 |
With three options.
1. Leave the EU based on the current deal offered by the EU
2. Leave the EU with no deal
3. Remain in the EU
1st and 2nd choice are voted for or a single vote?
Listening to the radio earlier, sounded like Ms Blackman simply wanted 2 choices...
1. Remain
2. Leave EU with current deal
Thoughts? [Post edited 11 Dec 2018 18:38]
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| A 2nd referendum then on 19:37 - Dec 11 with 2879 views | chicoazul |
| A 2nd referendum then on 18:57 - Dec 11 by Vic |
Won’t need when she comes back from Brussels with the backstop sorted. |
This is what I think will happen too. They'll figure it out. |  |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 19:38 - Dec 11 with 2880 views | homer_123 |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:34 - Dec 11 by Guthrum |
It'll take a month minimum to organise and hold the Referendum. It isn't even going to start until after Christmas/New Year.
So we'll be at the end of January with some outcome which is unlikely to be clear and decisive (especially if they don't get the question right). Leaving just two months to pass through Parliament and implement whatever they can cobble together to reflect that result, possibly including further negotiations with the EU.
Marvellous. |
Hence why I asked, what then?
What do we do if we don't harvest a second referendum?
Stick with Mays deal?
Simply Remain? | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 19:40 - Dec 11 with 2877 views | homer_123 |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:27 - Dec 11 by Herbivore |
That's some false equivocation right there. |
Where Herbs? | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 19:46 - Dec 11 with 2863 views | XYZ |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:08 - Dec 11 by Guthrum |
Will only create confusion, waste more time and leave us closer to an unmoderated (and unprepared-for) crash exit.
Even a clear "Remain" outcome (by no means a forgone conclusion) will lead to vast damage to the UK's alrady ailing political processes, in many people's eyes. Won't exactly build trust with the EU, either - who says we aren't going to turn around and do the same thing again in a few years time? |
It's time for damage limitation.
Britain's reputation is in tatters.
No PM is going to put us through a "crash exit" |  | | |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:51 - Dec 11 with 2858 views | LeoMuff |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:37 - Dec 11 by chicoazul |
This is what I think will happen too. They'll figure it out. |
It’s got to be possible, this deal is a massive win for the EU I’m sure they will be keen to keep it if possible, unless the will hold out for a referendum and remaining in. |  |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 19:53 - Dec 11 with 2856 views | Guthrum |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:38 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
Hence why I asked, what then?
What do we do if we don't harvest a second referendum?
Stick with Mays deal?
Simply Remain? |
The main reason peole want Parliamentary or "People's" votes is because they think it will block versions of Brexit they do not like. It's not about solutions, but setting up obstacles. It's not like they're coming out with serious alternative plans of their own (apart from the probably unviable "Norway Option", which the Norwegians have said they'll veto).
What is so dreadful about May's deal? The thing most seem to be objecting to (other than that their own party didn't come up with it or they want to remain in the EU) is the fact we may be in a series of transition arrangements for an extended period while trade deals are negotiated. It comes down to a pants-filling terror that we will find ourselves unable to run away from the ECJ, Customs Union, etc. at the earliest possible opportunity.
There are two ways around that: Negotiate properly and get trade deals sorted ASAP, or be patient in the knowlege it's coming eventually. |  |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 19:54 - Dec 11 with 2853 views | homer_123 |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:53 - Dec 11 by Guthrum |
The main reason peole want Parliamentary or "People's" votes is because they think it will block versions of Brexit they do not like. It's not about solutions, but setting up obstacles. It's not like they're coming out with serious alternative plans of their own (apart from the probably unviable "Norway Option", which the Norwegians have said they'll veto).
What is so dreadful about May's deal? The thing most seem to be objecting to (other than that their own party didn't come up with it or they want to remain in the EU) is the fact we may be in a series of transition arrangements for an extended period while trade deals are negotiated. It comes down to a pants-filling terror that we will find ourselves unable to run away from the ECJ, Customs Union, etc. at the earliest possible opportunity.
There are two ways around that: Negotiate properly and get trade deals sorted ASAP, or be patient in the knowlege it's coming eventually. |
Certainly agree with your first paragraph.
So, Mays deal it is then? | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 19:58 - Dec 11 with 2836 views | Herbivore |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:37 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
I'm not convinced it is Herbs.
6 months of chaos? This coming from the same people that said our economy would tank if we merely voted for leave?
The Bank of England's own forecasts over recent years and going further back have been wrong on many occasions and significantly wrong at that.
"It’s a reminder of the enduring damage that George Osborne’s sensationalist presentation of the Treasury’s predictions during the referendum have done. Just as no doctor can tell you how much you’ll weigh next year but can predict with a reasonable degree of accuracy that you will be heavier if you live off fried food and cream cakes than pulses and steamed fish, yes, no one can be sure how Brexit will play out. But we can say with a reasonable degree of accuracy that less trade and more friction — whether in the form of new tariffs or of regulatory, non-tariff barriers — will lead to a smaller British economy than we’d otherwise have."
The question is, is a smaller economy a price worth paying?
Given how wildly wrong most economic forecasts are, why are people so sure about those that relate to Brexit?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/02/bank-of-england-forecasts-mark-
Look here, the FT reporting the UK economy didn't tank, as predicted...and Carnet having to defend the BoEs position.
https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2018/02/02/carney-defends-bank-of-england-
40 years ago, forecasts and how they were positioned were flawed....yet oft forgotten
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/02/economic-forecasting-flawed-scienc |
We have the slowest growing economy of the major developed nations despite the BofE taking significant measures to prop up the economy post Brexit vote. So whilst the forecasts weren't spot on, it's fair to say the economy did worse because of the Brexit vote. I don't think further weakening the country is the way to go, personally. You take some positions I find odd, you seem to say that because some predictions have been wrong we shouldn't really bother listening to experts. Your earlier claim that remaining in the EU brings uncertainty too was also odd in context, proper false equivocation when placed alongside the option of a no deal Brexit. The uncertainty attached to both isn't remotely comparable. [Post edited 11 Dec 2018 20:01]
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:00 - Dec 11 with 2836 views | Guthrum |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:27 - Dec 11 by BloomBlue |
But how do you know a hard brexit would be disastrous? |
Because we have done little of the preparations necessary to mitigate potential problems. For instance recruiting and funding extra HMRC staff and infrastructure, contingency planning for essential supplies, border agreements and so on.
No deal Hard Brexit requires organisation too. Which has not been done early or adequately enough. | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:02 - Dec 11 with 2830 views | chicoazul |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:51 - Dec 11 by LeoMuff |
It’s got to be possible, this deal is a massive win for the EU I’m sure they will be keen to keep it if possible, unless the will hold out for a referendum and remaining in. |
Either option is good for them; staying in or the May deal. What I can't really understand is Remain people not lapping the May deal up. Well, I can; politics and stupidity. | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:04 - Dec 11 with 2825 views | homer_123 |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:58 - Dec 11 by Herbivore |
We have the slowest growing economy of the major developed nations despite the BofE taking significant measures to prop up the economy post Brexit vote. So whilst the forecasts weren't spot on, it's fair to say the economy did worse because of the Brexit vote. I don't think further weakening the country is the way to go, personally. You take some positions I find odd, you seem to say that because some predictions have been wrong we shouldn't really bother listening to experts. Your earlier claim that remaining in the EU brings uncertainty too was also odd in context, proper false equivocation when placed alongside the option of a no deal Brexit. The uncertainty attached to both isn't remotely comparable. [Post edited 11 Dec 2018 20:01]
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The forecasts weren't even close Herbs and it isn't even just these forecasts. Why are people setting so much stall in them now?
You are incorrect in regards false equivocation.
I merely pointed out that leaving or staying are unknown quants. I then commented that Mays deal brings the risk of being in limbo. No false equivocation there Herbs. | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:08 - Dec 11 with 2811 views | Herbivore |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:04 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
The forecasts weren't even close Herbs and it isn't even just these forecasts. Why are people setting so much stall in them now?
You are incorrect in regards false equivocation.
I merely pointed out that leaving or staying are unknown quants. I then commented that Mays deal brings the risk of being in limbo. No false equivocation there Herbs. |
It is blatant false equivocation. But there's no point arguing this with you, you have your views on it and I have mine. | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:08 - Dec 11 with 2816 views | Guthrum |
| A 2nd referendum then on 19:54 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
Certainly agree with your first paragraph.
So, Mays deal it is then? |
It's the least-worst option. Staying in would be nice, but things will never be the same again and a lot of people in the UK left feeling betrayed. We're not prepared for a No Deal exit (plus I don't think it would go well economically). | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:13 - Dec 11 with 2802 views | homer_123 |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:08 - Dec 11 by Herbivore |
It is blatant false equivocation. But there's no point arguing this with you, you have your views on it and I have mine. |
Why is it an argument Herbs? It's a discussion.
I haven't used any false equivocation, where have I used a term or phrase in one element of my post with one meaning and then again in another part with another meaning? | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:15 - Dec 11 with 2790 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| A 2nd referendum then on 18:40 - Dec 11 by Withnail |
Wheres my yellow jacket. |
Ask Jill et John! |  |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:18 - Dec 11 with 2781 views | Herbivore |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:13 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
Why is it an argument Herbs? It's a discussion.
I haven't used any false equivocation, where have I used a term or phrase in one element of my post with one meaning and then again in another part with another meaning? |
Sorry, meant equivalence not equivocation, been a long day. | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:22 - Dec 11 with 2778 views | J2BLUE |
I hate it when people use thread titles to make it sound like something has happened but it's merely a prediction. |  |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:25 - Dec 11 with 2769 views | Durovigutum |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:04 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
The forecasts weren't even close Herbs and it isn't even just these forecasts. Why are people setting so much stall in them now?
You are incorrect in regards false equivocation.
I merely pointed out that leaving or staying are unknown quants. I then commented that Mays deal brings the risk of being in limbo. No false equivocation there Herbs. |
No deal isn’t about trade, basic things like legal frameworks cease to exist. Driving licence not valid In Europe as the legal agreement is tied to EU membership perhaps? This isn’t supposition or opinion, like some of the economic predictions, it’s hard legal fact.
The irony of no deal is that we basically take every EU rule and make it ours just so the country can continue to function - that’s some quality “taking back control” isn’t it? |  | | |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:27 - Dec 11 with 2768 views | SpruceMoose |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:22 - Dec 11 by J2BLUE |
I hate it when people use thread titles to make it sound like something has happened but it's merely a prediction. |
Yeah. This is TWTD not Buzzfeed for fook sake.
As an aside, why am I getting adverts for 'pee proof underwear'? Facters, have you been on my laptop again? |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:38 - Dec 11 with 2756 views | homer_123 |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:18 - Dec 11 by Herbivore |
Sorry, meant equivalence not equivocation, been a long day. |
Herbs, genuinely, I don't see us arguing, it's a discussion and debate. Actually, I enjoy it bud. I really hope you don't see this as arguing, people should do more of this. We might have differing views at times and feel strongly but that doesn't mean it's an argument.
I completely respect you and your views, even if I don't always share them or look at things differently.
Hate to think anyone thinks this is arguing. | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:39 - Dec 11 with 2748 views | SpruceMoose |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:38 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
Herbs, genuinely, I don't see us arguing, it's a discussion and debate. Actually, I enjoy it bud. I really hope you don't see this as arguing, people should do more of this. We might have differing views at times and feel strongly but that doesn't mean it's an argument.
I completely respect you and your views, even if I don't always share them or look at things differently.
Hate to think anyone thinks this is arguing. |
Homer, you have always struck me as a decent sort. I respect your post, and to be honest, it's probably something we would all do well to remember when we interact online. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:49 - Dec 11 with 2731 views | homer_123 |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:39 - Dec 11 by SpruceMoose |
Homer, you have always struck me as a decent sort. I respect your post, and to be honest, it's probably something we would all do well to remember when we interact online. |
Cheers Sprucey, appreciated. | |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:51 - Dec 11 with 2721 views | SpruceMoose |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:49 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
Cheers Sprucey, appreciated. |
Well, I mainly was thinking about me as I'm a massive cooont on here but you'd love me in real life. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| A 2nd referendum then on 20:52 - Dec 11 with 2719 views | Herbivore |
| A 2nd referendum then on 20:38 - Dec 11 by homer_123 |
Herbs, genuinely, I don't see us arguing, it's a discussion and debate. Actually, I enjoy it bud. I really hope you don't see this as arguing, people should do more of this. We might have differing views at times and feel strongly but that doesn't mean it's an argument.
I completely respect you and your views, even if I don't always share them or look at things differently.
Hate to think anyone thinks this is arguing. |
Thanks, Homer. You always debate respectfully, arguing was probably the wrong word to be fair. | |
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