| Another day, another Tories decimated election map 22:36 - Oct 14 with 2890 views | thebooks |
I do like Suffolk going completely red (including Coffey getting trounced), apart from Hancock (hanging on by 500 or so votes) and Cartlidge (less than 200). Enjoy:
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:39 - Oct 14 with 2138 views | Lord_Lucan |
I'm not sure about that forecast
Not so much the Tory / Labour thing but I think that Labour have a chance of giving Sturgeon a good beating. |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:45 - Oct 14 with 2121 views | thebooks |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:39 - Oct 14 by Lord_Lucan |
I'm not sure about that forecast
Not so much the Tory / Labour thing but I think that Labour have a chance of giving Sturgeon a good beating. |
Hard to call, that. Lab made good gains in Scotland in 2017 which this map reflects, but that was part of the Corbyn thing. Perhaps they will make further gains? | | | |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:51 - Oct 14 with 2101 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:45 - Oct 14 by thebooks |
Hard to call, that. Lab made good gains in Scotland in 2017 which this map reflects, but that was part of the Corbyn thing. Perhaps they will make further gains? |
I think Sturgeon will implode, she is a corrupt, power crazy women. | |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 23:24 - Oct 14 with 2046 views | XYZ |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:51 - Oct 14 by Lord_Lucan |
I think Sturgeon will implode, she is a corrupt, power crazy women. |
Whatever she is or isn't, she's not afraid to use lawyers ... |  | | |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 23:28 - Oct 14 with 2036 views | lowhouseblue |
yeah, the people's republic of east suffolk. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 23:32 - Oct 14 with 2017 views | WeWereZombies |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:51 - Oct 14 by Lord_Lucan |
I think Sturgeon will implode, she is a corrupt, power crazy women. |
She certainly knows knows how to control a party but that has left a succession problem that looks drastic at the moment hence, I guess, the usefulness of having an advisory only second independence referendum. But she and Starmer, another centraliser (for reasons you no doubt are well aware of), look always to be at loggerheads and Scottish Labour is correspondingly short on charisma. So I wouldn't hold your breath in anticipation of some great renewal of Red Scotland. Ed Milliband may be the new Roy Jenkins but his constituency is nae Hillhead... |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 23:32 - Oct 14 with 2015 views | BasingstokeBlue |
When you say "decimation", do you mean 1/10 of the party are discarded every day, every week, every month, or what? |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 00:34 - Oct 15 with 1938 views | mylittletown |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 23:32 - Oct 14 by BasingstokeBlue |
When you say "decimation", do you mean 1/10 of the party are discarded every day, every week, every month, or what? |
Are we Romans?
Or are we dancers? |  | | |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 02:30 - Oct 15 with 1882 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 23:32 - Oct 14 by BasingstokeBlue |
When you say "decimation", do you mean 1/10 of the party are discarded every day, every week, every month, or what? |
They said "decimated" not "decimation"...  |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 07:12 - Oct 15 with 1781 views | wrightsrightglove |
The craziest thing that I find about these predictions is that there are STILL that many people so tied to a political party that they would actually vote for this government. I mean imagine after everything still believing that the conservatives are the best party to be governing! I know the votes will come from those who are selfishly looking after their own interests and b******s to everyone else but it’s just crazy to me that there are that many people out there who still think the conservatives are their best option. | | | |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 07:47 - Oct 15 with 1724 views | Ely_Blue |
Not sure I’d read too much into some of those predictions, all 3 of the seats down here in Bournemouth and Poole are very very strong Tory seats and I can’t see Robert Syms, Tobias Elwood & Conor Burns all losing their seats |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 08:05 - Oct 15 with 1702 views | BlueBadger |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:51 - Oct 14 by Lord_Lucan |
I think Sturgeon will implode, she is a corrupt, power crazy women. |
Farage in Jimmy Krankie wig innit. |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 08:25 - Oct 15 with 1664 views | LegendofthePhoenix |
Surely Looney Tunes has only got a matter of days left. No one left in the Tory party has any credibility. There just has to be a GE now, it is an utter shambles that is desecrating the already severely damaged reputation of the UK. |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 08:33 - Oct 15 with 1628 views | IpswichKnight |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:45 - Oct 14 by thebooks |
Hard to call, that. Lab made good gains in Scotland in 2017 which this map reflects, but that was part of the Corbyn thing. Perhaps they will make further gains? |
She’s made herself a hostage to fortune. She will use the GE as a de facto independence referendum where if she gets over 50% of the vote she will declare independence, problem is she won’t get that so what next? As others have pointed out there is no succession and the rest of the SNP aren’t even recognised by there own mirrors never mind anyone else. | | | |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:19 - Oct 15 with 1554 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:51 - Oct 14 by Lord_Lucan |
I think Sturgeon will implode, she is a corrupt, power crazy women. |
I'm really surprised to read that you think that.
I've lived in Scotland for a while now and can tell you that many strong supporters of the Union felt that she did a very good job in the pandemic, even recognising that big mistakes were made.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader is good, but doesn't have the same presence that Sturgeon has.
As Sturgeon has said that she will make the next UK General Election a Referendum on Independence in Scotland, I think it is more likely that you will see some Tory seats go Labour in pro-Union areas, than SNP go Labour. | | | |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:28 - Oct 15 with 1532 views | tractordownsouth |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 22:45 - Oct 14 by thebooks |
Hard to call, that. Lab made good gains in Scotland in 2017 which this map reflects, but that was part of the Corbyn thing. Perhaps they will make further gains? |
The 2017 Scotland map was a bit all over the place because of unionist tactical voting. Labour made some good gains but also fell back to third place in lots of others as the Tories leapfrogged them and the SNP. 2019 was such a sh1tshow that some of them are now SNP safe seats - Jim Murphy and Alastair Darling’s former constituencies now have Labour votes of less than 10,000 so hard to see a comeback there. I think Labour’s ceiling in Scotland is probably now only 10 seats at a push.
As for the OP, as great as it would be I can’t see Coffey losing. Tom Hunt will be toast but the rest will cling on. Even Waveney now has a huge Tory majority despite having been Labour in the past. |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:30 - Oct 15 with 1526 views | WeWereZombies |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 08:33 - Oct 15 by IpswichKnight |
She’s made herself a hostage to fortune. She will use the GE as a de facto independence referendum where if she gets over 50% of the vote she will declare independence, problem is she won’t get that so what next? As others have pointed out there is no succession and the rest of the SNP aren’t even recognised by there own mirrors never mind anyone else. |
Whilst I pointed out that Sturgeon has no obvious successor I still think most of the electorate would think that Ian Blackford looks familiar even if they couldn't put a name to the face. But he isn't a viable candidate for SNP leader (he's my MP and I know that he made a good show of supporting people who had lost elderly relatives in the local care home which suffered terribly in that first wave of pandemic deaths but I also know he has too much of a mistake in him to be a reliable figurehead.) | |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:32 - Oct 15 with 1521 views | tractordownsouth |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 07:47 - Oct 15 by Ely_Blue |
Not sure I’d read too much into some of those predictions, all 3 of the seats down here in Bournemouth and Poole are very very strong Tory seats and I can’t see Robert Syms, Tobias Elwood & Conor Burns all losing their seats |
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bournemouth is the next Canterbury, an area with a solid Tory history with a population that is getting younger due to students and graduates moving out of London. If I remember rightly Elwood’s majority is under 10k so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
A similar thing has happened in Worthing, the parliamentary seat is now a marginal and the local council went from having no Labour representation to a Labour majority within 6 years. | |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:37 - Oct 15 with 1465 views | Mullet |
I'm not that optimistic unless you see a real mobilisation of the young, a good level of education on tactical voting and promises to reform the election system afterwards from Labour.
I think the Tories are done, but there are still those who will be driven by selfishness above all else and vote Tory. The worry is the longer this goes on, the damage they leave for Starmer to fix might be too much. I'd quite like to see the Greens make some gains too and PR yield much more diversity in the HoC. |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 10:02 - Oct 15 with 1430 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:37 - Oct 15 by Mullet |
I'm not that optimistic unless you see a real mobilisation of the young, a good level of education on tactical voting and promises to reform the election system afterwards from Labour.
I think the Tories are done, but there are still those who will be driven by selfishness above all else and vote Tory. The worry is the longer this goes on, the damage they leave for Starmer to fix might be too much. I'd quite like to see the Greens make some gains too and PR yield much more diversity in the HoC. |
You would think that this has to be the absolute rock bottom in opinion poll terms for the Tories, and that Starmer can't possibly gain any more ground*.
Add to that:
The Right Wing press may yet throw their weight back behind the Tories. But that is looking less likely than normal.
Foreign money, and big money generally, may see the Tories have an unfair advantage in the campaign.
But with every passing year, the demographics shift. The lie that "people are more inclined to vote Tory as they get older" will be exposed. It's just that people of the Golden and Boomer generations are more likely to be Tory, and have more time on their hands and are thus more likely to vote as they get older. But they are becoming fewer.
* one caveat to this: the Tories had wall to wall coverage over the summer with lots of prime time debates during their leadership election. Then Truss got to be Prime Minister for the Mourning Period and political campaigns were suspended. Then Labour had one week of exposure during their Conference and stormed up the polls. Since then it has been all Tories (and the IEA on every show, of course) and they are still plummeting. In a General Election Starmer will have equal prominence by law and could capitalise further.
Sheet show of a disordered, rambling post, that. Apologies all. | | | |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 10:39 - Oct 15 with 1386 views | Ely_Blue |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:32 - Oct 15 by tractordownsouth |
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bournemouth is the next Canterbury, an area with a solid Tory history with a population that is getting younger due to students and graduates moving out of London. If I remember rightly Elwood’s majority is under 10k so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
A similar thing has happened in Worthing, the parliamentary seat is now a marginal and the local council went from having no Labour representation to a Labour majority within 6 years. |
Ellwood & Burns both have 9-11k majority (20% at the 2019 election)
Robert Syms on the other hand (who is my local MP) has a 19k majority or to put that into context a 37% majority in 2019, thats gonna be some landslide if all 3 of those lose their seats | |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 10:42 - Oct 15 with 1381 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 09:28 - Oct 15 by tractordownsouth |
The 2017 Scotland map was a bit all over the place because of unionist tactical voting. Labour made some good gains but also fell back to third place in lots of others as the Tories leapfrogged them and the SNP. 2019 was such a sh1tshow that some of them are now SNP safe seats - Jim Murphy and Alastair Darling’s former constituencies now have Labour votes of less than 10,000 so hard to see a comeback there. I think Labour’s ceiling in Scotland is probably now only 10 seats at a push.
As for the OP, as great as it would be I can’t see Coffey losing. Tom Hunt will be toast but the rest will cling on. Even Waveney now has a huge Tory majority despite having been Labour in the past. |
Coffey's constituency is now called North London Coastal.....she's toast! |  |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 10:59 - Oct 15 with 1351 views | tractordownsouth |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 10:39 - Oct 15 by Ely_Blue |
Ellwood & Burns both have 9-11k majority (20% at the 2019 election)
Robert Syms on the other hand (who is my local MP) has a 19k majority or to put that into context a 37% majority in 2019, thats gonna be some landslide if all 3 of those lose their seats |
Yeah Syms will be fine, squeaky bum time for the other two though. | |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 13:03 - Oct 15 with 1221 views | Mullet |
| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 10:02 - Oct 15 by ArnoldMoorhen |
You would think that this has to be the absolute rock bottom in opinion poll terms for the Tories, and that Starmer can't possibly gain any more ground*.
Add to that:
The Right Wing press may yet throw their weight back behind the Tories. But that is looking less likely than normal.
Foreign money, and big money generally, may see the Tories have an unfair advantage in the campaign.
But with every passing year, the demographics shift. The lie that "people are more inclined to vote Tory as they get older" will be exposed. It's just that people of the Golden and Boomer generations are more likely to be Tory, and have more time on their hands and are thus more likely to vote as they get older. But they are becoming fewer.
* one caveat to this: the Tories had wall to wall coverage over the summer with lots of prime time debates during their leadership election. Then Truss got to be Prime Minister for the Mourning Period and political campaigns were suspended. Then Labour had one week of exposure during their Conference and stormed up the polls. Since then it has been all Tories (and the IEA on every show, of course) and they are still plummeting. In a General Election Starmer will have equal prominence by law and could capitalise further.
Sheet show of a disordered, rambling post, that. Apologies all. |
Definitely merit to that. Along with the rather dark reality that their mismanagement of Covid killed off many voters and soured their older children towards them supposedly.
But we've had a sickening dose of jingoism and nonsense thanks to the Queen's death and that seems to stir up Toryism too. There are so many factors at play, but I do hope that Starmer wins comfortably and introduces PR so the Tories can never ruin Britain again.
I'd take a few Far Right protest MPs every few years in the HoC as at least they wouldn't be disguised in blue as they are now. | |
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| Another day, another Tories decimated election map on 20:03 - Oct 15 with 1037 views | HARRY10 |
I think tactical voting will play a major part as in 1997. We saw that recently where voters turned out in their thousands to rid the country of the odious bloater.
By the time a GE comes round the impact of mortgages rising will have hit home badly. Money lost by incompetent covid loans may be forgiven as it could be claimed the intent behind those loans was worthy. Something only the most deluded brexiter (there are others?) could defend about the suicidal mini budget.
It should not be ignored how one subject can fixate voting. Johnsons lies about brexit and the Libdems lie about student loans.
However, a week is a long time in politics, as we have once again discovered. And there are many more weeks before a GE happens.
How much voters remember the damage caused by brexit will have to be seen. But I do think the mood is one for change. Failing to deliver is one thing - but a deliberate policy of harm to the country is another.
I don't see it as what happened in France post liberation, but I do think those responsible and their supporters will pay a heavy price at the ballot box. | | | |
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