| Looks like 06:24 - Jun 12 with 1660 views | Guthrum |
As predicted, KJU and DJT are getting on famously. Hopefully will result in a positive outcome for the Korean peninsula. |  |
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| Looks like on 08:41 - Jun 12 with 1529 views | homer_123 |
Clearly we hope it will. It will, however, end in tears...or worse. |  |
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| Looks like on 08:44 - Jun 12 with 1513 views | BlueNomad |
Trump is clearing the decks for war with Canada! |  | | |
| Looks like on 09:10 - Jun 12 with 1499 views | BlueBadger |
| Looks like on 08:41 - Jun 12 by homer_123 |
Clearly we hope it will. It will, however, end in tears...or worse. |
For what it's worth, I reckon the two Fevered Egos meeting is just the PR exercise. the real work will have been done by grown-ups, weeks ago. [Post edited 12 Jun 2018 9:10]
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| Looks like on 09:59 - Jun 12 with 1473 views | Guthrum |
| Looks like on 08:41 - Jun 12 by homer_123 |
Clearly we hope it will. It will, however, end in tears...or worse. |
What are the drivers for failure, in the short-to-medium term? Virtually everyone is happy to see detente between North Korea and its old enemies.
Trump has a diplomatic coup to wave around. Pyongyang wants recognition plus a path to easing sanctions, increased prosperity and diminuation of external threats, in exchange for which they're quite prepared to trade the very expensive and largely pointless (except as a bargaining chip) nuclear programme. The South Korean government of Moon Jae In - the main driver and facilitator of this process - is delighted. Beijing, with its eyes on the South China Sea, is only too happy to see a problem on their northern flank disappear, especially if it reduces the number of US troops based in the region. Even for Putin this outcome is better than many other possibilities, in a country with which Russia shares quite a sensitive border.
The only possibly unhappy people will be some right-wing nationalists who like to use NK as a bogeyman, such as the disgraced and jailed former SK President Park Geun Hye and Abe of Japan (whose government is reeling from a corruption scandal and may not be around much longer). Even the latter would probably be pleased to see missile tests no longer being fired over his country.
There are some traditionalist hard-line US Republicans, who would object to any kind of deal with a still communist former enemy and nominal Chinese ally (if Trump falls and is replaced by Pence, that could be the real threat to this detente). Also some Democrats for whom the lack of immediate progress on human rights would be enough to upset the apple cart.
All this unlike the Iran nuclear deal, in which the achievement belonged to Trump's predecessor and badly upset a couple of influential allies (Israel and Saudi Arabia). [Post edited 12 Jun 2018 10:03]
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| Looks like on 10:05 - Jun 12 with 1458 views | Guthrum |
| Looks like on 08:44 - Jun 12 by BlueNomad |
Trump is clearing the decks for war with Canada! |
They tried invading Canada before. Ended up with someone burning the White House down. | |
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| Looks like on 10:07 - Jun 12 with 1456 views | chicoazul |
| Looks like on 09:10 - Jun 12 by BlueBadger |
For what it's worth, I reckon the two Fevered Egos meeting is just the PR exercise. the real work will have been done by grown-ups, weeks ago. [Post edited 12 Jun 2018 9:10]
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You think there are grown ups in North Korea? |  |
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| Looks like on 10:08 - Jun 12 with 1455 views | blueislander |
| Looks like on 09:59 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
What are the drivers for failure, in the short-to-medium term? Virtually everyone is happy to see detente between North Korea and its old enemies.
Trump has a diplomatic coup to wave around. Pyongyang wants recognition plus a path to easing sanctions, increased prosperity and diminuation of external threats, in exchange for which they're quite prepared to trade the very expensive and largely pointless (except as a bargaining chip) nuclear programme. The South Korean government of Moon Jae In - the main driver and facilitator of this process - is delighted. Beijing, with its eyes on the South China Sea, is only too happy to see a problem on their northern flank disappear, especially if it reduces the number of US troops based in the region. Even for Putin this outcome is better than many other possibilities, in a country with which Russia shares quite a sensitive border.
The only possibly unhappy people will be some right-wing nationalists who like to use NK as a bogeyman, such as the disgraced and jailed former SK President Park Geun Hye and Abe of Japan (whose government is reeling from a corruption scandal and may not be around much longer). Even the latter would probably be pleased to see missile tests no longer being fired over his country.
There are some traditionalist hard-line US Republicans, who would object to any kind of deal with a still communist former enemy and nominal Chinese ally (if Trump falls and is replaced by Pence, that could be the real threat to this detente). Also some Democrats for whom the lack of immediate progress on human rights would be enough to upset the apple cart.
All this unlike the Iran nuclear deal, in which the achievement belonged to Trump's predecessor and badly upset a couple of influential allies (Israel and Saudi Arabia). [Post edited 12 Jun 2018 10:03]
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I can't help thinking that the whole thing is a PR exercise. It takes the spotlight off Trump's performance at the G7, and gives Kim some nternational kudos. It could help North Korea's failing economy I guess, but there is not going to be any concrete committments from either side, just vague hopes of progress, which, after all , is better than bombing each other. |  | | |
| Looks like on 10:10 - Jun 12 with 1447 views | chicoazul |
| Looks like on 10:05 - Jun 12 by Guthrum |
They tried invading Canada before. Ended up with someone burning the White House down. |
Canadians, according to Trump. | |
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| Looks like on 10:24 - Jun 12 with 1430 views | Guthrum |
| Looks like on 10:08 - Jun 12 by blueislander |
I can't help thinking that the whole thing is a PR exercise. It takes the spotlight off Trump's performance at the G7, and gives Kim some nternational kudos. It could help North Korea's failing economy I guess, but there is not going to be any concrete committments from either side, just vague hopes of progress, which, after all , is better than bombing each other. |
But successful progress tends to happen in steps, not great leaps.
Compare with Iraq, where forced, wholesale, instant change of regime and governmental type was attempted. 15 years later, the mess is still being cleared up, with many tens of thousands dead in the interim. Pretty similar with a lot of revolutions, too.
Easing of sanctions will help the NK economy greatly, as will not spending money on nuclear and missile programmes. Also strengthens Kim Jong Un's position vis-a-vis the army, will allow him more leeway to move away from the "military first" position he inherited from his father. Possibly towards the Chinese model of centrally managed quasi-capitalism which has been so successful. | |
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| Looks like on 10:27 - Jun 12 with 1429 views | J2BLUE |
People are desperate to take credit away from Trump. He has done extremely well. It's just an official first step. Both sides need to stick to whatever they've agreed to but he has done as much as he can at this point. |  |
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| Looks like on 12:52 - Jun 12 with 1366 views | Kitman |
| Looks like on 10:10 - Jun 12 by chicoazul |
Canadians, according to Trump. |
Anything Hollywood does, he can do better. He's taken to re-writing history now |  |
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