| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? 09:08 - Apr 24 with 2972 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
One game for promotion. Everyone back fit by then as well.
However, the opponents are Norwich.
It's a tricky one. Initial thought is automatic is still in our hands... however it's going to be tough. Or a one off game against arguably the weakest play off team.
Problem is, it's them. I'm undecided, but veering towards 'take the final v Nodge'. [Post edited 24 Apr 9:09]
|  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
| |  |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 14:30 - Apr 24 with 592 views | mutters |
Nope, we have it under control. I'd rather that than a nervy game at Wembley. Leeds are only just ahead and we have a game in hand on them.
Have faith, our time is now. |  |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 14:57 - Apr 24 with 559 views | jontysnut |
No rather risk three winnable games against indifferent sides than a one off which could involve Norwich with all the baggage that comes with. Maybe different if we were bang in form as the momentum side. |  | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 15:49 - Apr 24 with 537 views | Vegtablue |
Corr what a hypothetical! I know a few who would shake on this but they're liabilities at the best of times.
Beyond the prestige of 1st/2nd vs 3rd, is your offer tougher than winning our remaining three? No way! But it feels 50/50 whether Leeds will force us to do this, and I wouldn't blink if I knew two wins would do it.
If we do finish in the playoffs, will we be favourites to make the final? I think so, but head-to-head records suggest only slightly. And if we find ourselves in the final, which of the available opposition has been the least impressive overall? It's them up the road, no question.
My answer has to be no deal, because of potential counseling costs and I don't want to skip forward on the excitement. It is a respectable offer though! |  | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 16:12 - Apr 24 with 481 views | peterleeblue |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 09:17 - Apr 24 by unbelievablue |
Yep. Beat Hull and everyone will truly believe. Cov will be knackered and out of it, and Hudds will be down.
Not to mention if QPR get a result against Leeds, we'd only need to win two! |
Or Southampton win at Leeds. Anything can happen yet. |  | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 16:22 - Apr 24 with 459 views | Blue_In_Boston |
No!!!! What a defeatist attitude.
1 game at a time, a win and everything could look rosy again come bedtime Saturday. | | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 16:57 - Apr 24 with 429 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 16:22 - Apr 24 by Blue_In_Boston |
No!!!! What a defeatist attitude.
1 game at a time, a win and everything could look rosy again come bedtime Saturday. |
It's not really defeatist, it's just a pondering on what would be the better chance if you had the choice. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:10 - Apr 24 with 406 views | Leaky |
If my aunt had b0llacks she would be my uncle. ( or maybe not this 2024 not 1974) All we need to do is win one game & match Leeds results. If not its the play offs no point in getting your knicker's in a twist. What ever will be will be. [Post edited 24 Apr 17:12]
|  | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:10 - Apr 24 with 406 views | jayessess |
Going to run the probabilities on this one...
I think the latest stats have us at 46% chance for autos as of this moment. Add in that if we fail, we'd still have a roughly 1 in 4 chance of winning the play-offs, so that's 0.55 x 0.25 = 13.75%. Total probability of 59.75%
I'd make us 50/50 to win a one-off play-off final having got there, so statistically I'm taking my chances with the actual season playing out (which is just as well because we don't have a choice in the matter!). |  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:13 - Apr 24 with 402 views | Nutkins_Return |
No | | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:14 - Apr 24 with 396 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
I would take it on 2 conditions.
We definitely win.
We can fast forward to 10 minutes left of the final at 8-0 up. |  |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:23 - Apr 24 with 385 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:10 - Apr 24 by jayessess |
Going to run the probabilities on this one...
I think the latest stats have us at 46% chance for autos as of this moment. Add in that if we fail, we'd still have a roughly 1 in 4 chance of winning the play-offs, so that's 0.55 x 0.25 = 13.75%. Total probability of 59.75%
I'd make us 50/50 to win a one-off play-off final having got there, so statistically I'm taking my chances with the actual season playing out (which is just as well because we don't have a choice in the matter!). |
You were good with all the maths and science bit... but then you went opinion with "I'd make us 50/50". I reckon the bookies would have us slightly ahead of Nodge in a one-off game. So mathematically-speaking it's probably pretty close. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:29 - Apr 24 with 368 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:23 - Apr 24 by The_Flashing_Smile |
You were good with all the maths and science bit... but then you went opinion with "I'd make us 50/50". I reckon the bookies would have us slightly ahead of Nodge in a one-off game. So mathematically-speaking it's probably pretty close. |
But if you are arguing that, the bookies would put us above the 25% to win the play offs if we are in them so that increase the percentage calculated equally too. I definitely wouldn't swap where we are for the original premise. I wouldn't even if it was against West Brom (so knowing nodge are already knocked out ... although knowing we had knocked them out would be pleasant). | |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:56 - Apr 24 with 353 views | MK1 |
No thanks. We win our last 3. |  | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 18:07 - Apr 24 with 340 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:29 - Apr 24 by Nthsuffolkblue |
But if you are arguing that, the bookies would put us above the 25% to win the play offs if we are in them so that increase the percentage calculated equally too. I definitely wouldn't swap where we are for the original premise. I wouldn't even if it was against West Brom (so knowing nodge are already knocked out ... although knowing we had knocked them out would be pleasant). |
Yeah, although that would depend who else is in the play offs and what the form of those teams was going into them. In my scenario you're straight to the final with only Norwich to beat.
On balance, after seeing the replies, I'm now veering towards stick with the situation at hand. And, as I think a couple of others have said, it's the joy of the journey, the highs and lows, as well. It's great to be in this position, really. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 18:09 - Apr 24 with 332 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:56 - Apr 24 by MK1 |
No thanks. We win our last 3. |
We could all say that. The reality's a lot more difficult. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 18:42 - Apr 24 with 297 views | Trequartista |
Good question actually. Nearly every answer below is "no", and that's my gut instinct. But think about it coldly, we're going to have to win away at Hull or Coventry or maybe both as well as keep our nerve against Huddersfield, rather than just one win on a neutral ground, admittedly against a team we can't seem to beat.
I think the fact we still fall into the playoffs if we miss automatic promotion just sways it as "no". [Post edited 24 Apr 18:42]
|  |
| |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 18:43 - Apr 24 with 291 views | MK1 |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 18:09 - Apr 24 by The_Flashing_Smile |
We could all say that. The reality's a lot more difficult. |
They could, but it doesn't matter what they do as we are winning all 3. | | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 18:45 - Apr 24 with 288 views | Mach_foreignBlue |
No by far as it is us who are in the control. All about repeating Peterborough / Barnsley / Exeter scenario from last year in the next 3 games. |  | | |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 18:57 - Apr 24 with 262 views | jayessess |
| If you were offered the play off final right now, would you take it? on 17:23 - Apr 24 by The_Flashing_Smile |
You were good with all the maths and science bit... but then you went opinion with "I'd make us 50/50". I reckon the bookies would have us slightly ahead of Nodge in a one-off game. So mathematically-speaking it's probably pretty close. |
Haha, yeah, I suppose I could be more precise there!
The bookies' implied probabilities at Kick Off for our game at Carrow Road gave us a 39.22% chance of winning and a 27.78% chances of drawing. Imagine they'd be more generous towards us a neutral venue mind. [Post edited 24 Apr 19:47]
| |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
