| Difficulty of run in 03:39 - Jan 15 with 2280 views | IPS_wich |
So - I was feeling bored this morning and I decided to take a look at the run-in for the top four teams - not trying to predict results, rather how difficult the run-in is for each team on paper.
I have done the same analysis twice for each team, once based upon the current league table and once based upon the 8-game form table (in the league).
What I've done is look at the number of home and away games each team has against teams in the top 8, middle 8 and bottom 8. I've then given a difficulty score for each type of game as follows:
- Away against top 8 side: 6 points
- Home against top 8 side: 5 points
- Away against middle 8 side: 4 points
- Home against middle 8 side: 3 points
- Away against bottom 8 side: 2 points
- Home against bottom 8 side: 1 points
Based upon current league table:
- Leicester: 6 vs Top 8 (3H/3A); 7 vs Middle 8 (3H/4A); 6 vs Bottom 8 (4H/2A) - 66 difficulty points
- Ipswich: 5 vs Top 8 (3H/2A); 8 vs Middle 8 (2H/6A); 6 vs Bottom 8 (4H/2A) - 65 difficulty points
- Southampton: 7 vs Top 8 (3H/4A); 7 vs Middle 8 (4H/3A); 5 vs Bottom 8 (2H/3A) - 71 difficulty points
- Leeds: 5 vs Top 8 (3H/2A); 7 vs Middle 8 (4H/3A); 7 vs Bottom 8 (3H/4A) - 62 difficulty points
Based upon 8-game form table:
- Leicester: 6 vs Top 8 (4H/2A); 8 vs Middle 8 (3H/5A); 5 vs Bottom 8 (3H/2A) - 68 difficulty points
- Ipswich: 5 vs Top 8 (2H/3A); 8 vs Middle 8 (4H/4A); 6 vs Bottom 8 (3H/3A) - 65 difficulty points
- Southampton: 6 vs Top 8 (2H/4A); 7 vs Middle 8 (5H/2A); 6 vs Bottom 8 (2H/4A) - 67 difficulty points
- Leeds: 5 vs Top 8 (4H/1A); 8 vs Middle 8 (3H/5A); 6 vs Bottom 8 (4H/2A) - 63 difficulty points
What does this show us?
- Leeds have the easiest and Ipswich the second easiest run-ins whether that is based upon current table or form table (Leeds' is quite a bit easier.
- Southampton have a way way harder run-in based upon the current table than the other three teams (they still have to play all of the other seven teams in the top 8) - but it's not quite as hard when compared to the form table.
- Leicester's run-in is a bit harder than on paper when you look at the form table.
- Ipswich's outcome is going to be heavily influenced by our away form against middle of the table sides. Hopefully the old adage of 'nothing to play for' comes in to play towards the end of the season.
All in all the Leeds vs Southampton game on the last weekend of the season could be season defining for 2/3/4 of the current top 4 teams.
Bring it on!! |  | | |  |
| Difficulty of run in on 07:12 - Jan 15 with 1907 views | X0Y0 |
It's an interesting idea, but I think dividing the league into eights is very arbitrary - is Millwall really a point tougher than Stoke?
It would probably make sense to pull out the top 4 separately, given they are 'six pointers' and have a reasonable gap.
Ultimately, it's the fact that Southampton have to play the other top 3 all away from home during their run in that makes it significantly harder. | | | |
| Difficulty of run in on 07:38 - Jan 15 with 1779 views | Stewart27 |
I had no idea Leeds play Southampton on the final day.
I have completely bought into this one game at a time thing. | | | |
| Difficulty of run in on 07:45 - Jan 15 with 1736 views | ChorleyBoy |
Perhaps I'm missing something, but with little over half the season gone, don't we all have near identical run-ins? Isn't the fact that we and Leeds have the easiest run-ins because we have already played each other twice? |  | | |
| Difficulty of run in on 08:17 - Jan 15 with 1571 views | NthQldITFC |
| Difficulty of run in on 07:12 - Jan 15 by X0Y0 |
It's an interesting idea, but I think dividing the league into eights is very arbitrary - is Millwall really a point tougher than Stoke?
It would probably make sense to pull out the top 4 separately, given they are 'six pointers' and have a reasonable gap.
Ultimately, it's the fact that Southampton have to play the other top 3 all away from home during their run in that makes it significantly harder. |
I'd agree with that as an improvement, or better still use total home/away points (or form period home/away points) as the measure of difficulty. Useful guide in any form. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
| |
| Difficulty of run in on 08:44 - Jan 15 with 1378 views | IPS_wich |
| Difficulty of run in on 07:45 - Jan 15 by ChorleyBoy |
Perhaps I'm missing something, but with little over half the season gone, don't we all have near identical run-ins? Isn't the fact that we and Leeds have the easiest run-ins because we have already played each other twice? |
If I had done the analysis five games ago then maybe - but we only have 40% of the season left now - and we've also played Sunderland twice and from next week will have played Leicester twice - at which point Southampton would still have all of the rest of the top 8 to play.
It was mainly driven by a lot or comments that say Southampton haven't really played many top sides in their recent run of form - and the analysis shows that to be reasonably true - they have the hardest run home.
Sure - in five games time it will be even more informative to repeat the analysis - in fact you're welcome to and then I can criticise it... | | | |
| Difficulty of run in on 09:03 - Jan 15 with 1267 views | IPS_wich |
| Difficulty of run in on 07:12 - Jan 15 by X0Y0 |
It's an interesting idea, but I think dividing the league into eights is very arbitrary - is Millwall really a point tougher than Stoke?
It would probably make sense to pull out the top 4 separately, given they are 'six pointers' and have a reasonable gap.
Ultimately, it's the fact that Southampton have to play the other top 3 all away from home during their run in that makes it significantly harder. |
The gap between Leeds and West Brom isn't that big - and of the 16 games that the top 4 have lost:
- 6 have been against other teams currently in top 4
- 5 have been against teams currently in 5th-8th
So - maybe I could have split the table into six groups of four - but then I am sure someone would have come on here and criticised my approach by saying dividing the division into fours is very arbitrary because playing away to a side in 5th to 8th is harder than playing at home to another side in the top 4 and blah blah blah
Also - if we're being pedantic and critical - then whether a game is a six pointer or not is completely irrelevant to the assessment of the difficulty of the run home; it would only be relevant if I was predicting the outcomes of the game and the final table based upon the difficulty of the run home. | | | |
| Difficulty of run in on 09:05 - Jan 15 with 1254 views | WestSussexBlue |
I admire your time and insight in to this.
However rarely do form and particularly results stay as you would expect as we enter the final 5-6 games. Pressure, confidence and other factors start to come in to play. Just look at Sheffield Wednesday’s form toward the tail end of last season for example. Losing at Forest Green and dropping points to Cheltenham and Lincoln whilst our run in against the likes of Peterborough, Derby, Bolton Barnsley looked very tricky to say the least.
It’s often how teams and individuals manage the pressure and expectations as opposed to the opponent.
[Post edited 15 Jan 9:09]
| | | |
| Difficulty of run in on 09:13 - Jan 15 with 1184 views | the_toff |
| Difficulty of run in on 07:12 - Jan 15 by X0Y0 |
It's an interesting idea, but I think dividing the league into eights is very arbitrary - is Millwall really a point tougher than Stoke?
It would probably make sense to pull out the top 4 separately, given they are 'six pointers' and have a reasonable gap.
Ultimately, it's the fact that Southampton have to play the other top 3 all away from home during their run in that makes it significantly harder. |
Towards the end of the season it can often be the teams fighting relegation that are harder games than the ones in 14th with nothing to play for too.
On paper I would take our run in over Southampton's. Our next 12 before we host Southampton aren't actually too bad on paper. 7 are away, but other than Leicester they're not trips to top sides. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Difficulty of run in on 10:05 - Jan 15 with 1002 views | patrickswell |
At the moment, our April fixtures are much tougher than Southampton and Leeds. Once we’ve played the Saints, we’re playing everyone else who is currently jostling for 6th place including a game at Norwich. We also play Watford, Middlesbrough, Coventry and Hull.
Southampton have to play Coventry and Watford, Leeds play Sunderland, Hull, Coventry and Middlesbrough.
Whoever comes out of those fixtures with a good haul of points will have earned promotion. |  | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
