| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! 21:53 - Apr 25 with 1836 views | Kievthegreat |
Chances of finishing top 2 before today:
Ipswich - 92%
Plymouth - 91%
Sheffield - 15%
Barnsley - <1%
After todays game:
Ipswich - 99% (+7%)
Plymouth - 98% (+7%)
Sheffield - 4% (-11%)
Barnsley - 0%
And now chances of winning the league in their simulations...
Ipswich 45% (+4%)
Plymouth 55% (-1%)
Wednesday <1% (-2%)
Barnsley 0%
It's happening..... |  | | |  |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 21:56 - Apr 25 with 1742 views | Swansea_Blue |
I still think we’ve run out of games and Plymouth will wrap it up with their last 2 relatively easy games. I can’t see them dropping any more points. But you never know…. |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 22:06 - Apr 25 with 1559 views | Kievthegreat |
That's the average. Most likely hauls are presumably 6 and 4 points. It's also why we are less likely to win the league, but more likely to finish top 2 than Plymouth! | | | |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 22:20 - Apr 25 with 1400 views | itfctilidie |
How can Ipswich have the highest chance of finishing top two yet the second highest percentage to win the league. Makes no sense |  | | |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 22:25 - Apr 25 with 1333 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 21:56 - Apr 25 by Swansea_Blue |
I still think we’ve run out of games and Plymouth will wrap it up with their last 2 relatively easy games. I can’t see them dropping any more points. But you never know…. |
I agree. Just can't see Plymouth dropping any points.
However, if they wouldn't mind letting Port Vale equalise on 90+2 minutes on the final day, that would round off the season |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 22:27 - Apr 25 with 1295 views | positivity |
">99%"! |  |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 22:40 - Apr 25 with 1161 views | Kievthegreat |
| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 22:20 - Apr 25 by itfctilidie |
How can Ipswich have the highest chance of finishing top two yet the second highest percentage to win the league. Makes no sense |
TBF it's not strictly speaking chance, but that in 1000 simulations, we get top 2 more.
I would guess it's because of permutations around Goal Difference when Wednesday are in the mix.
Wednesday need 2 wins to reach Autos as 4 points won't do unless there is a 20 goal swing, so let's assume Wednesday get 2 wins and there isn't a 20 goal swing.
If us or Plymouth get 1 point, we can get caught by Wednesday because we'll be a point behind and Plymouth will have worse goal difference.
If us or Plymouth get 2 points, we will beat Wednesday on GD and Plymouth by virtue of an extra point.
So effectively we have the exact same criteria for reaching the top 2 as Plymouth, despite the extra point they have, but we (in their simulations) have a better chance of picking up those points so slightly overtake them. Plus if it is a threeway tie, we also win that as well.
However, in order to win the league, we need to outscore them points wise, which we clearly aren't favourites to do because there is a decent number of times in the simulation that they can pick up maximum points, or that we can only match them points wise. It is a bit counter intuitive but it does kind of make sense. [Post edited 25 Apr 2023 22:41]
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 22:42 - Apr 25 with 1116 views | SlippinJimmyJuan |
I honestly think they will falter somewhere. Who knows how tonight would have ended without the red card. Gassan goal on Saturday please, and if not, we know how stubborn Port Vale can be and how lumpy that pitch is. We deserve the title. | |
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| FiveThirtyEight Update - It's Happening! on 07:58 - Apr 26 with 823 views | Wakh |
To be honest I dont care about finishing top, I just wanna be out of this awful league. Having the league one trophy as our last piece of silverware seems more of a reminder of how far we fell, rather than a recent success. Appreciate I am in a minority, but I really don't care if we win the league or not. [Post edited 26 Apr 2023 8:03]
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