| Get ready for an October national lockdown 11:47 - Sep 7 with 5239 views | homer_123 |
The Gov have stated there are no plans for a lockdown in October.
* - I think we are all astutely aware that this was going to be extremely likely....but hey |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:50 - Sep 7 with 2837 views | J2BLUE |
Are we going to lock down every winter in future?
I would like to see them stop reporting the new covid cases and just report hospitalisations and deaths. |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:52 - Sep 7 with 2810 views | homer_123 |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:50 - Sep 7 by J2BLUE |
Are we going to lock down every winter in future?
I would like to see them stop reporting the new covid cases and just report hospitalisations and deaths. |
Why don't we all take December or January off? Stop the footy etc?
By the by - I agree on your second sentence. | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:52 - Sep 7 with 2790 views | Keno |
cant we just lock the government up for the Autumn? |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:54 - Sep 7 with 2768 views | Guthrum |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:50 - Sep 7 by J2BLUE |
Are we going to lock down every winter in future?
I would like to see them stop reporting the new covid cases and just report hospitalisations and deaths. |
1) Possibly, for a while at least. Tho I think it less likely while hospitalisations and deathe reamain (fairly) low.
2) Why? It's a relevant statistic, showing how prevelant the virus is and thus risk levels of catching it for the vulnerable. |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:55 - Sep 7 with 2744 views | Kieran_Knows |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:56 - Sep 7 with 2739 views | Steve_M |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:52 - Sep 7 by homer_123 |
Why don't we all take December or January off? Stop the footy etc?
By the by - I agree on your second sentence. |
I did see a suggestion that there has been some contingency planning which is a quite surprising degree of forethought from this government.
re: reporting. I think case numbers are still important because a large surge does provide early warning of an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. A small percentage of a rapidly growing number will still be a larger number of serious cases. |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:57 - Sep 7 with 2732 views | homer_123 |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:54 - Sep 7 by Guthrum |
1) Possibly, for a while at least. Tho I think it less likely while hospitalisations and deathe reamain (fairly) low.
2) Why? It's a relevant statistic, showing how prevelant the virus is and thus risk levels of catching it for the vulnerable. |
I think there is a case as, now with the vaccines, it's no longer the number of cases of Covid but the severity that is key - hence it doesn't really matter as much now how prevalent it is but how many end up in hospital etc.
It's not that it's not of interest, just not as relevant now (completely take Steve's point on early warning).
EDIT: Steve's point below, is valid though. [Post edited 7 Sep 2021 11:59]
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:58 - Sep 7 with 2708 views | homer_123 |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:56 - Sep 7 by Steve_M |
I did see a suggestion that there has been some contingency planning which is a quite surprising degree of forethought from this government.
re: reporting. I think case numbers are still important because a large surge does provide early warning of an increase in hospitalisations and deaths. A small percentage of a rapidly growing number will still be a larger number of serious cases. |
Yep, good point on number of cases, edited my reply to Guthers as a result. | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:58 - Sep 7 with 2701 views | homer_123 |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:52 - Sep 7 by Keno |
cant we just lock the government up for the Autumn? |
Why just for Autumn? | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:59 - Sep 7 with 2686 views | Keno |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:58 - Sep 7 by homer_123 |
Why just for Autumn? |
thats a fair comment
is there a gif "for throwing away the key"? [Post edited 7 Sep 2021 11:59]
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:04 - Sep 7 with 2635 views | J2BLUE |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:52 - Sep 7 by homer_123 |
Why don't we all take December or January off? Stop the footy etc?
By the by - I agree on your second sentence. |
Is that a serious suggestion? How would it work? | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:04 - Sep 7 with 2632 views | Guthrum |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:57 - Sep 7 by homer_123 |
I think there is a case as, now with the vaccines, it's no longer the number of cases of Covid but the severity that is key - hence it doesn't really matter as much now how prevalent it is but how many end up in hospital etc.
It's not that it's not of interest, just not as relevant now (completely take Steve's point on early warning).
EDIT: Steve's point below, is valid though. [Post edited 7 Sep 2021 11:59]
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It's also a useful reminder that this thing has not gone away and that care still needs to be taken (e.g. masks in crowded indoor locations, testing, getting vaccinated if not already done). The lower numbers of hospitalisations and deaths will have less impact. | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:05 - Sep 7 with 2607 views | homer_123 |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:04 - Sep 7 by J2BLUE |
Is that a serious suggestion? How would it work? |
A flippant pithy comment if I'm honest J2.
Though if anyone could give it some serious thought..... :) | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:08 - Sep 7 with 2560 views | J2BLUE |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:05 - Sep 7 by homer_123 |
A flippant pithy comment if I'm honest J2.
Though if anyone could give it some serious thought..... :) |
I'm in a much better position this year to deal with something like that. I work from home for a company who would thrive even more than normal in a lockdown.
Like I argued last year though, I do think it's an idea which exposes work from home privilege! | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:09 - Sep 7 with 2550 views | Guthrum |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:05 - Sep 7 by homer_123 |
A flippant pithy comment if I'm honest J2.
Though if anyone could give it some serious thought..... :) |
Funding is, as ever, the main issue with that. People still need to pay bills and put food on the table. If the government has to pay for all that, where do they get the money from and how is it paid back?
They've managed it a couple of times, but two months every year would be a huge strain. | |
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| On the second point..... on 12:10 - Sep 7 with 2549 views | Bloots |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:54 - Sep 7 by Guthrum |
1) Possibly, for a while at least. Tho I think it less likely while hospitalisations and deathe reamain (fairly) low.
2) Why? It's a relevant statistic, showing how prevelant the virus is and thus risk levels of catching it for the vulnerable. |
....the problem is that there is zero context to the reporting, or at least in the way that the media report it.
It's too black and white.
If they are going to report the number of infections, then they need to report it in much more depth, which they can't be bothered to.
They don't report the positivity rate, they don't report the ages, they don't report if they are vaccinated, they barely report the number of tests, they don't say if they are LFT or PCR, etc, etc.
Hospitalisations is more relevant, ITU occupancy even more so.
Essentially they need to report three things:
Percentage of beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied
Percentage of ITU beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied.
Deaths due to covid within any timescale.
All of the above by nation and region. |  |
| Enduringly lovable, intelligent and thunderingly exquisite. |
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| On the second point..... on 12:12 - Sep 7 with 2519 views | Guthrum |
| On the second point..... on 12:10 - Sep 7 by Bloots |
....the problem is that there is zero context to the reporting, or at least in the way that the media report it.
It's too black and white.
If they are going to report the number of infections, then they need to report it in much more depth, which they can't be bothered to.
They don't report the positivity rate, they don't report the ages, they don't report if they are vaccinated, they barely report the number of tests, they don't say if they are LFT or PCR, etc, etc.
Hospitalisations is more relevant, ITU occupancy even more so.
Essentially they need to report three things:
Percentage of beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied
Percentage of ITU beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied.
Deaths due to covid within any timescale.
All of the above by nation and region. |
The media are never going to go into that much detail (sadly).
But, as I said to Homer, the headline figures are a useful, if blunt, reminder that the virus has not gone away. | |
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| On the second point..... on 12:23 - Sep 7 with 2410 views | Fixed_It |
| On the second point..... on 12:12 - Sep 7 by Guthrum |
The media are never going to go into that much detail (sadly).
But, as I said to Homer, the headline figures are a useful, if blunt, reminder that the virus has not gone away. |
It hasn't gone away. I tested positive last week. Double jabbed and no longer a spring chicken. But the thing is (and I know it varies from person to person) both my missus and I would descibe it as like having a summer cold - the sort that I would, in normal circumstances, plough on with at work because I didn't take time off lightly.
Now I know many thousands of people have been less fortunate - but at some stage we are going to have to crack on and cope with it. Obviously, keeping an eye on hospitalisations is the key figure to be aware of. If vaccination has made the virus less serious for the majority, then we need to continue to push the programme, along with any necessary boosters, to try to get back to some normality. |  |
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| On the second point..... on 12:33 - Sep 7 with 2277 views | Mookamoo |
| On the second point..... on 12:23 - Sep 7 by Fixed_It |
It hasn't gone away. I tested positive last week. Double jabbed and no longer a spring chicken. But the thing is (and I know it varies from person to person) both my missus and I would descibe it as like having a summer cold - the sort that I would, in normal circumstances, plough on with at work because I didn't take time off lightly.
Now I know many thousands of people have been less fortunate - but at some stage we are going to have to crack on and cope with it. Obviously, keeping an eye on hospitalisations is the key figure to be aware of. If vaccination has made the virus less serious for the majority, then we need to continue to push the programme, along with any necessary boosters, to try to get back to some normality. |
Child 2 and Child 3 have their second jabs tomorrow. They were some of the first 18-20s to get their first, so you would have thought they will start to call people for the boosters once they have capacity.
I assume any October lockdown would be to ensure all over 50s have the opportunity to get their boosters as they're still wading through the younger cohort. |  | | |
| I know about 8 or 9 people that..... on 12:34 - Sep 7 with 2280 views | Bloots |
| On the second point..... on 12:23 - Sep 7 by Fixed_It |
It hasn't gone away. I tested positive last week. Double jabbed and no longer a spring chicken. But the thing is (and I know it varies from person to person) both my missus and I would descibe it as like having a summer cold - the sort that I would, in normal circumstances, plough on with at work because I didn't take time off lightly.
Now I know many thousands of people have been less fortunate - but at some stage we are going to have to crack on and cope with it. Obviously, keeping an eye on hospitalisations is the key figure to be aware of. If vaccination has made the virus less serious for the majority, then we need to continue to push the programme, along with any necessary boosters, to try to get back to some normality. |
...have tested positive in the last couple of months.
Various ages from 14 to 55.
Symptoms have ranged from none to "proper flu", none came near to hospitalisation.
Obviously the effects differ hugely, and I lost a close mate during the second wave, dependant on the individual but that's the same for most illnesses.
Vaccinations have obviously made a huge difference, but also the treatment is getting better than it was. | |
| Enduringly lovable, intelligent and thunderingly exquisite. |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:40 - Sep 7 with 2210 views | giant_stow |
I read financial journalist andrew lilico explaining how a new exponential phase of the pandemic was now impossible. Think this tweet kind of covers some of that ground
Seemed a bit weird for a non modeler to be so certain. |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:44 - Sep 7 with 2165 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:50 - Sep 7 by J2BLUE |
Are we going to lock down every winter in future?
I would like to see them stop reporting the new covid cases and just report hospitalisations and deaths. |
The Singapore approach which is just being rolled out is exactly that.
On the OP, the Govt have discussed a 1 week 'firebreak' at half-term. That's it. |  | | |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:54 - Sep 7 with 2103 views | Steve_M |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:40 - Sep 7 by giant_stow |
I read financial journalist andrew lilico explaining how a new exponential phase of the pandemic was now impossible. Think this tweet kind of covers some of that ground
Seemed a bit weird for a non modeler to be so certain. |
Lilico was quite certain that Brexit would be non-stop advantages for the UK too. He isn't reliable and will be finding reasoning to justify his priors. There are plenty of people on Twitter who can do modelling of case numbers much better. | |
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| On the second point..... on 13:00 - Sep 7 with 2058 views | Guthrum |
| On the second point..... on 12:23 - Sep 7 by Fixed_It |
It hasn't gone away. I tested positive last week. Double jabbed and no longer a spring chicken. But the thing is (and I know it varies from person to person) both my missus and I would descibe it as like having a summer cold - the sort that I would, in normal circumstances, plough on with at work because I didn't take time off lightly.
Now I know many thousands of people have been less fortunate - but at some stage we are going to have to crack on and cope with it. Obviously, keeping an eye on hospitalisations is the key figure to be aware of. If vaccination has made the virus less serious for the majority, then we need to continue to push the programme, along with any necessary boosters, to try to get back to some normality. |
But a key thing here is patience.
Have we learnt nothing from 1914 and "it'll all be over by Christmas"? This virus has only existed since late November 2019, as a global crisis, it's been less than 18 months. I know everybody would like to get back to their old lives ASAP, but that is not necessarily sensible.
If the world can get this under control in two, three, four years, we'd have done very well. Bubonic plague kept returning as a major issue for about five centuries after it first arrived in Europe. Already we've had problems caused by premature reopenings, initiatives and "Freedom Days".
There are signs that we are winning the battle, but it's by no means over yet. Relaxing vigience and suppression measures risks allowing another explosion - which stands a chance of being nastier than what we have at the moment. | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:04 - Sep 7 with 2015 views | giant_stow |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:54 - Sep 7 by Steve_M |
Lilico was quite certain that Brexit would be non-stop advantages for the UK too. He isn't reliable and will be finding reasoning to justify his priors. There are plenty of people on Twitter who can do modelling of case numbers much better. |
Thought there was something fishy about his certainty if nothing else! | |
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