| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide 18:30 - Dec 11 with 14012 views | BlueinBrum |
I'm as bored of Brexit as anyone but I'm going to keep sharing this sort of stuff because i think it's vitally important that we keep talking about the dangers and implications of Brexit for the country.
I found a good comment beneath the following article which concisely sums up my fears for the UK economy as a result of Brexit. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/11/brexit-city-of-london-jobs-ey-d
"Seeing banking jobs and manufacturing jobs relocate to rEU is only the start of it. What will kill the UK is the loss of tax revenue and foreign exchange earnings that will occur as a result of the relocation to Ireland and the Continent of financial services, as well as car making, aerospace, pharmaceuticals (all areas in which the UK excels — don’t believe the pundits who say “we don’t make anything anymore”. It is not true). No Government of any party will be politically able to make spending cuts or tax rises of the magnitude necessary to balance the books, so they will borrow and print money. This relies as Mark Carney once said on the kindness of strangers who will only lend for so long as they believe in the viability of the UK economy. Once investors see the economy fail, as exports tumble while imports continue to rise and the ability to earn vital foreign exchange declines, they will either stop lending altogether or demand extortionate interest rates which will only make the situation worse. An old fashioned Sterling crisis will follow.
How will the UK Government respond? Expect another IMF bailout, just like the 1970s. Expect also exchange controls to come back, preventing UK nationals for taking their money abroad, and expect new rules on pensions requiring significant proportions of savings to be “invested” with the UK Government in the form of bonds. Needless to say this will sold to the public as reducing “risk” to them from volatile investments, but the interest rates will be very unfavourable as they always are for any compulsory investments. Ultimately expect these loans to the Government to be turned into life time annuities so hard earned savings never have to be paid back at all. Anyone arguing against all this will be deemed "unpatriotic".
Expect benefits to be cut. The poor will suffer as they always do, but the middle classes used to a lifestyle of foreign holidays and German cars will be hardest hit of all. Read up about Britain in the 1970s, or Argentina 20 years ago, where living standards fell by half, people, were not able to access their bank accounts and US Dollar accounts were compulsory changed to worthless Pesos. The state will always survive, and they will happily destroy their people to protect the state. The current disregard for the interests of the economy by the current crop of politicians just goes to prove my point." |  | | |  |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 10:31 - Dec 13 with 2512 views | lowhouseblue |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 10:28 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
You mean you just want to have a competition on perceived ‘experience’ instead of argueing a point using plain facts and logic. My original question, if you are interested, remains: how can you plan for something that does not yet exist? |
are you saying that you can only plan for things that already exist? isn't that then a response rather than a plan?
what do you understand by contingency? |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 10:55 - Dec 13 with 2497 views | Herbivore |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 10:28 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
You mean you just want to have a competition on perceived ‘experience’ instead of argueing a point using plain facts and logic. My original question, if you are interested, remains: how can you plan for something that does not yet exist? |
Quite easily really. This morning I planned to have toast for breakfast. My plan involved a few steps, beginning with getting out a chopping board and a knife, then the loaf of bread, cutting two slices of it, putting them in the toaster, buttering them when the toast was done and then putting the toast on a plate. The finished toast didn't exist until I put it on a plate but miraculously I planned and then executed a number of steps without it pre-existing. I also planned for the non-existent toast by making myself a cup of coffee to go with it - levels of planning right there, all for something that didn't yet exist. See, it's really quite easy. |  |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:00 - Dec 13 with 2485 views | blue_oyster |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 10:31 - Dec 13 by lowhouseblue |
are you saying that you can only plan for things that already exist? isn't that then a response rather than a plan?
what do you understand by contingency? |
If you want to plan for something, you have to know what that something is. Otherwise, you can't plan for it. This is not a complicated issue. |  |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:01 - Dec 13 with 2480 views | blue_oyster |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 10:55 - Dec 13 by Herbivore |
Quite easily really. This morning I planned to have toast for breakfast. My plan involved a few steps, beginning with getting out a chopping board and a knife, then the loaf of bread, cutting two slices of it, putting them in the toaster, buttering them when the toast was done and then putting the toast on a plate. The finished toast didn't exist until I put it on a plate but miraculously I planned and then executed a number of steps without it pre-existing. I also planned for the non-existent toast by making myself a cup of coffee to go with it - levels of planning right there, all for something that didn't yet exist. See, it's really quite easy. |
Exactly, you *know* what toast is, so therefore you can plan to have it for breakfast. Trouble is, no-one knows what 'Brexit' is. | |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:05 - Dec 13 with 2472 views | eireblue |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 10:28 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
You mean you just want to have a competition on perceived ‘experience’ instead of argueing a point using plain facts and logic. My original question, if you are interested, remains: how can you plan for something that does not yet exist? |
I answered you original question. You just don’t like the answer, or didn’t understand it.
If I am doing a plan for expansion into EU markets, I can do that calculation, it is quite easy. I am surprised you are struggled my with this.
You seem to be deliberately framing a question that is simply fallacious.
You plan for what you do know.
Brexit leads to a decision. I can calculate the cost of setting up an office in Germany and staffing to a certain level or make an assumption it will still be okay to increase headcount in the UK.
I know what explanation in UK costs, I know what setting up in Germany costs.
There will be a difference. I don’t know what additional costs Brexit may have.
So best thing to do, is plan for what I know.
Which is a shame, less tax payers in the UK. |  | | |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:05 - Dec 13 with 2472 views | Herbivore |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:01 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
Exactly, you *know* what toast is, so therefore you can plan to have it for breakfast. Trouble is, no-one knows what 'Brexit' is. |
Don't they? | |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:06 - Dec 13 with 2466 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:01 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
Exactly, you *know* what toast is, so therefore you can plan to have it for breakfast. Trouble is, no-one knows what 'Brexit' is. |
Of course we can guess possible scenarios and plan for them. You're making yourself look daft on this thread now. |  |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:08 - Dec 13 with 2463 views | noggin |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:06 - Dec 13 by Swansea_Blue |
Of course we can guess possible scenarios and plan for them. You're making yourself look daft on this thread now. |
Just this thread? |  |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:33 - Dec 13 with 2447 views | lowhouseblue |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:00 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
If you want to plan for something, you have to know what that something is. Otherwise, you can't plan for it. This is not a complicated issue. |
of course you can plan for things that are uncertain. you're just being silly now. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:47 - Dec 13 with 2433 views | blue_oyster |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:05 - Dec 13 by eireblue |
I answered you original question. You just don’t like the answer, or didn’t understand it.
If I am doing a plan for expansion into EU markets, I can do that calculation, it is quite easy. I am surprised you are struggled my with this.
You seem to be deliberately framing a question that is simply fallacious.
You plan for what you do know.
Brexit leads to a decision. I can calculate the cost of setting up an office in Germany and staffing to a certain level or make an assumption it will still be okay to increase headcount in the UK.
I know what explanation in UK costs, I know what setting up in Germany costs.
There will be a difference. I don’t know what additional costs Brexit may have.
So best thing to do, is plan for what I know.
Which is a shame, less tax payers in the UK. |
You're right, I didn't understand the answer, so I reasonably asked what it meant. Which you then ignored. So the original question is still unresolved.
You can plan for all those scenarios, of which you don't know if any will be needed. You have no idea how many more or less people will be need to be based in the EU, you can only guess. Are you planning for more people in the UK? | |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:49 - Dec 13 with 2426 views | blue_oyster |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:06 - Dec 13 by Swansea_Blue |
Of course we can guess possible scenarios and plan for them. You're making yourself look daft on this thread now. |
Indeed, you can guess. Doesn't mean that you'll be correct or that you'll even to be able to plan for an unknown scenario. | |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:50 - Dec 13 with 2421 views | blue_oyster |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:33 - Dec 13 by lowhouseblue |
of course you can plan for things that are uncertain. you're just being silly now. |
But not for things you don't *know*, sweetheart. [Post edited 13 Dec 2017 11:58]
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:19 - Dec 13 with 2397 views | eireblue |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:47 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
You're right, I didn't understand the answer, so I reasonably asked what it meant. Which you then ignored. So the original question is still unresolved.
You can plan for all those scenarios, of which you don't know if any will be needed. You have no idea how many more or less people will be need to be based in the EU, you can only guess. Are you planning for more people in the UK? |
You didn't say you didn't understand the answer initially. You didn't ask for clarity about my response, you just restated your question.
If you simply stated that you didn't understand my response, you could have moved the debate forward more effectively.
In this response your thinking is flawed, You can't possible know if we have no idea or just guessing on head count.
I still don't think you get it.
Things have to be done, in some cases now. The investment strategy is already in place.
We know exactly what the head count is going to be. No guessing involved.
In our case we are going to be hiring and opening offices and legal entities in EU countries. That headcount was going to be UK based.
Not anymore. And that is a decision based on uncertainty vs certainty+cost.
So now will you answer the question. Are in a position of arguing from experience of this decision making ? Are you interested in what real companies are doing, or are you just trying to create a debate around a simple statement that is just meaningless? | | | |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:20 - Dec 13 with 2394 views | Herbivore |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:50 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
But not for things you don't *know*, sweetheart. [Post edited 13 Dec 2017 11:58]
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Define what you mean by 'knowing' Brexit. | |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:28 - Dec 13 with 2381 views | No9 |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:50 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
But not for things you don't *know*, sweetheart. [Post edited 13 Dec 2017 11:58]
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Of course you plan for things you don't know
It's called a Risk Assessment
That you don't understand that explains a lot |  | | |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:30 - Dec 13 with 2375 views | Rob88 |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 11:50 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
But not for things you don't *know*, sweetheart. [Post edited 13 Dec 2017 11:58]
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You make assumptions and if there is a large uncertainty then you need to apply some appropriate pessimism to those assumptions.
There will always be unknown, unknowns (or will there), you just have to factor appropriately to achieve the confidence required. | | | |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:35 - Dec 13 with 2360 views | blue_oyster |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:19 - Dec 13 by eireblue |
You didn't say you didn't understand the answer initially. You didn't ask for clarity about my response, you just restated your question.
If you simply stated that you didn't understand my response, you could have moved the debate forward more effectively.
In this response your thinking is flawed, You can't possible know if we have no idea or just guessing on head count.
I still don't think you get it.
Things have to be done, in some cases now. The investment strategy is already in place.
We know exactly what the head count is going to be. No guessing involved.
In our case we are going to be hiring and opening offices and legal entities in EU countries. That headcount was going to be UK based.
Not anymore. And that is a decision based on uncertainty vs certainty+cost.
So now will you answer the question. Are in a position of arguing from experience of this decision making ? Are you interested in what real companies are doing, or are you just trying to create a debate around a simple statement that is just meaningless? |
Still with this nonsense? Original question was what is Brexit. To which you replied with some pseudo-scientific babble involving 'uncertainty', to which I then asked how you quantify that, which you obviously can't, even though you pretend that you can. | |
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| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:51 - Dec 13 with 2332 views | eireblue |
| Just to cheer everyone up - Brexit economic suicide on 12:35 - Dec 13 by blue_oyster |
Still with this nonsense? Original question was what is Brexit. To which you replied with some pseudo-scientific babble involving 'uncertainty', to which I then asked how you quantify that, which you obviously can't, even though you pretend that you can. |
Oh dear.
I think you need to read the thread back again.
And you need to think it all through. Look up a definition of contingency, that is where I think you started to struggle with this.
I can understand that it may sound like pseudo-scientific babble, for people with no experience and knowledge on the subject.
You are failing to grasp something fairly fundamental. Either because you are genuinely failing to grasp it and it is beyond your experience and knowledge, or you really are a troll.
But since you can't answer any question put to you, that leans me towards a conclusion of trolling, so I think I'll call it a day on this one. | | | |
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