Forum | So we're not in a recession (technically) by ElderGrizzly

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So we're not in a recession (technically) 13:20 - Feb 10 with 1013 views

But only because the Queen died.

The Queen's funeral in September and the rollout of Covid booster jabs have boosted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4.

I calculate that "private-sector GDP" in Q4 was 0.3% below its average level in the first two months of Q3. This is a recession in all but name.
— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) February 10, 2023

Charles had better watch out later this year...

Our Government has made us considerably poorer though

No recession on the pedantic definition of two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, but a calamitous performance nonetheless. The U.K. still is the *only* G7 country in which GDP has not exceeded its pre-Covid peak yet: pic.twitter.com/gBnbJrAuVt
— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) February 10, 2023

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 13:30 - Feb 10 with 956 views

Churchman

‘A calamitous performance’ sums it up very nicely. We all know why.

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 13:38 - Feb 10 with 928 views

Ryorry

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 13:30 - Feb 10 by Churchman
‘A calamitous performance’ sums it up very nicely. We all know why.

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So we're not in a recession (technically) on 14:11 - Feb 10 with 872 views

BlueBadger

'Technically correct' is the best kind of 'correct', after all.

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So we're not in a recession (technically) on 15:03 - Feb 10 with 830 views

SuperKieranMcKenna

We’ve only kicked the can down the road (slightly):

“
The recession is now thought to have started in the first quarter, with the Bank of England predicting a shallow downturn extending into early 2024.Â
“

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 15:40 - Feb 10 with 758 views

leitrimblue

Are you suggesting if we were to sacrifice one of um every year that this would keep the recession gods happy?

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 15:53 - Feb 10 with 741 views

DJR

The odd thing about GDP is that increased activity in NHS (eg. the Covid booster, increased hospital admissions) boosts growth.

On that basis, the Tories only need to build their 40 new hospitals to make the country boom, given all the people whose health has been affected by things like austerity, Covid and problems in the NHS.

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 15:59 - Feb 10 with 726 views

SuperKieranMcKenna

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 15:53 - Feb 10 by DJR
The odd thing about GDP is that increased activity in NHS (eg. the Covid booster, increased hospital admissions) boosts growth. On that basis, the Tories only need to build their 40 new hospitals to make the country boom, given all the people whose health has been affected by things like austerity, Covid and problems in the NHS.

Indeed.

Biden signed off a $3trn infrastructure bill post lockdown, and it’s no coincidence that US economic growth has left the UK and EU trailing miles behind.

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 16:01 - Feb 10 with 717 views

gtsb1966

Even this waste of paper is starting to turn.
https://www.frontpages.com/daily-mail/

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 16:18 - Feb 10 with 678 views

Pinewoodblue

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 15:59 - Feb 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna
Indeed. Biden signed off a $3trn infrastructure bill post lockdown, and it’s no coincidence that US economic growth has left the UK and EU trailing miles behind.

In recent year US spending on infrastructure has lagged.

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So we're not in a recession (technically) on 16:35 - Feb 10 with 644 views

SuperKieranMcKenna

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 16:18 - Feb 10 by Pinewoodblue
In recent year US spending on infrastructure has lagged.

The numbers I’ve seen are double the UK spending as a percentage of GDP.

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 16:50 - Feb 10 with 605 views

Pinewoodblue

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 16:35 - Feb 10 by SuperKieranMcKenna
The numbers I’ve seen are double the UK spending as a percentage of GDP.

For some reason this list doesn't include USA but it does make mention that China's investment on infrastructure is 10 times that of USA.

Suspect you are comparing intended expenditure rather than recent expenditure.

https://www.statista.com/topics/5383/us-infrastructure/#editorsPicks

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So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:09 - Feb 10 with 570 views

Oldsmoker

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 15:40 - Feb 10 by leitrimblue
Are you suggesting if we were to sacrifice one of um every year that this would keep the recession gods happy?

Letting Brenda go has only saved us "technically".
She was our ace card.
Andrew, Harry and some of the lesser royals aren't going to convince the gods....

....but it's worth a try.

[Post edited 10 Feb 2023 17:10]

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So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:17 - Feb 10 with 538 views

SuperKieranMcKenna

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 16:50 - Feb 10 by Pinewoodblue
For some reason this list doesn't include USA but it does make mention that China's investment on infrastructure is 10 times that of USA. Suspect you are comparing intended expenditure rather than recent expenditure. https://www.statista.com/topics/5383/us-infrastructure/#editorsPicks

Fair enough, but that only goes back to 2020 as far as I can see, and the bill was only passed in 2021. Apologies if I’ve missed it.

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:27 - Feb 10 with 509 views

leitrimblue

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:09 - Feb 10 by Oldsmoker
Letting Brenda go has only saved us "technically". She was our ace card. Andrew, Harry and some of the lesser royals aren't going to convince the gods.... ....but it's worth a try. [Post edited 10 Feb 2023 17:10]

Exactly, we not gonna know until we try. I wonder if a combination of royals might work? Perhaps Andrew and Charles together or Edaward and William might equal 1 Brenda in a angry gods eyes?

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:45 - Feb 10 with 480 views

You_Bloo_Right

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:27 - Feb 10 by leitrimblue
Exactly, we not gonna know until we try. I wonder if a combination of royals might work? Perhaps Andrew and Charles together or Edaward and William might equal 1 Brenda in a angry gods eyes?

I reckon it would have to be the one that is most popular when the sacrifice is required.

Andrew's well safe.

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So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:55 - Feb 10 with 451 views

Oldsmoker

So we're not in a recession (technically) on 17:27 - Feb 10 by leitrimblue
Exactly, we not gonna know until we try. I wonder if a combination of royals might work? Perhaps Andrew and Charles together or Edaward and William might equal 1 Brenda in a angry gods eyes?

Howsabout at the end of each quarter we top one off until GDP has recovered to an acceptable* level to definitely signify we're nowhere close to a recession.

Problem is this might make the Tories really popular and they'll win the next GE.

* This might involve some debate by Joe Public as to how large this number should be. If the next one is under 10 years old I might get a bit squeamish.

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