| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine 09:01 - Apr 13 with 1255 views | Churchman |
I noticed that some European bigwigs are visiting Kyiv (it’ll always be Kiev to me) and the German President Steinmeier has been told not to bother. The attached is from the German website DW and gives a good insight into why and their disastrous ties with Putin. Worth a read.
https://www.dw.com/en/war-in-ukraine-german-foreign-policy-under-fire/a-61436299
One thing struck me from it was that the blockers to Ukraine joining NATO in 2008 were Germany and France. Sarkozy and Merkel saw it as a provocation to Russia. That went well. Had Ukraine joined NATO, would Putin still have attacked? Possibly, but France and Germany’s actions made Putin’s decision far easier. If nothing else, they signalled that Ukraine didn’t matter.
Germany’s economy is by far the strongest in Europe. Their response of 5000 helmets and 1000 anti tank missiles that don’t work is the weakest. It makes me wonder if they are serious about opposing Putin or clinging on to their failed cozying up policy.
The other thing I note is that despite the German President’s disastrous policies that has possibly helped drop Ukraine in to this awful war, there is no pressure or sign of him resigning. That says a lot to me and I can understand why Zelensky has said stay away. [Post edited 13 Apr 2022 9:04]
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:16 - Apr 13 with 1195 views | hype313 |
They're caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, they desperately need Russia's resources in order to keep everything going, especially since they have closed all outlets of power (Thank Merkel for that) whilst trying to square that with what Putin has done and pretty much run down their military.
They have some big questions they need answering over the coming weeks and months on how they go forward. [Post edited 13 Apr 2022 9:19]
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:30 - Apr 13 with 1156 views | Guthrum |
Had Putin invaded in 2008, upon a Ukrainian decision to join NATO, the outcome would have been more like 2014 on steroids than 2022. Kyiv* lacked any really effective military at that stage.
Perhaps he lacked confidence at what was then still an early stage in the upgrading (!) of his military. A much bigger fish to swallow than Georgia. So instead he (probably) helped get Yanukovych elected two years later.
For reasons of geology and economics, Germany has become so utterly dependent** upon Russian gas and oil that they have always been on the back foot when dealing with Putin. And still are.
Tho the President of Germany has little direct political power.
* Writing it like that feels slightly weird to me, too.
** Lack of oil reserves was a significant factor in the defeat of Germany during WWII, including strategic overreach in pushing for the Caucasus and for the Middle East via Egypt. |  |
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:37 - Apr 13 with 1131 views | EdwardStone |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:30 - Apr 13 by Guthrum |
Had Putin invaded in 2008, upon a Ukrainian decision to join NATO, the outcome would have been more like 2014 on steroids than 2022. Kyiv* lacked any really effective military at that stage.
Perhaps he lacked confidence at what was then still an early stage in the upgrading (!) of his military. A much bigger fish to swallow than Georgia. So instead he (probably) helped get Yanukovych elected two years later.
For reasons of geology and economics, Germany has become so utterly dependent** upon Russian gas and oil that they have always been on the back foot when dealing with Putin. And still are.
Tho the President of Germany has little direct political power.
* Writing it like that feels slightly weird to me, too.
** Lack of oil reserves was a significant factor in the defeat of Germany during WWII, including strategic overreach in pushing for the Caucasus and for the Middle East via Egypt. |
To derail this thread slightly
I am interested by the relationship between a country's economic clout and its natural resources.
Apparently Africa should be the World's richest continent by a long chalk.
Countries like Germany and Japan seem to flourish despite having to import huge amounts of the most basic raw materials.
Cultural and political reasons I imagine |  | | |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:38 - Apr 13 with 1130 views | Guthrum |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:16 - Apr 13 by hype313 |
They're caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, they desperately need Russia's resources in order to keep everything going, especially since they have closed all outlets of power (Thank Merkel for that) whilst trying to square that with what Putin has done and pretty much run down their military.
They have some big questions they need answering over the coming weeks and months on how they go forward. [Post edited 13 Apr 2022 9:19]
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To be fair, like Western Europe after the First World War, they were banking upon peace as an opportunity to concentrate upon the economy, following the end of the Cold War and the strains of reunification. Which, in the 1990s, was a pretty safe bet as Russia declined under Yeltsin. Even into Putin's early years, he appeared a steady pair of hands and well integrated into geopolitical structures.
By the time things became clearer, Germany was in too deep and found it hard to backtrack. | |
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:55 - Apr 13 with 1081 views | Churchman |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:30 - Apr 13 by Guthrum |
Had Putin invaded in 2008, upon a Ukrainian decision to join NATO, the outcome would have been more like 2014 on steroids than 2022. Kyiv* lacked any really effective military at that stage.
Perhaps he lacked confidence at what was then still an early stage in the upgrading (!) of his military. A much bigger fish to swallow than Georgia. So instead he (probably) helped get Yanukovych elected two years later.
For reasons of geology and economics, Germany has become so utterly dependent** upon Russian gas and oil that they have always been on the back foot when dealing with Putin. And still are.
Tho the President of Germany has little direct political power.
* Writing it like that feels slightly weird to me, too.
** Lack of oil reserves was a significant factor in the defeat of Germany during WWII, including strategic overreach in pushing for the Caucasus and for the Middle East via Egypt. |
It was a German France move in 2008 to block Ukraine. It looks like a decision by them based on fear and economic opportunity at the expense of a weaker country that doesn’t matter to them. Who has been bouncing back and forth to Moscow like a tennis ball? Macron. For his election purposes, getting Russia back to the fold or to halt their aggression? Only he knows.
If you are saying that Ukraine joining NATO in 2008 would have encouraged Russia to attack it, would not Article 5 been invoked? I have no faith in Article 5 so it is an open question as far as I’m concerned.
Yes, Germany is short on natural resources which makes its decision to throw its lot in with Putin when they knew what he was years ago to the point of total dependency even more stupid.
As for WW2, yes oil was a factor in its defeat along with shortage of other raw materials, but probably more crucial was its shambolic inefficiency, inability to mass manufacture to any degree and bankruptcy by 1941. How it lasted to 45 is amazing. | | | |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 10:03 - Apr 13 with 1062 views | Darth_Koont |
Bit of a hindsight moment.
You could say the same about those other voices over the years saying the NATO door was open and intimating that it was entirely up to Ukraine to join. Which was nonsense.
Also that when we effectively turned a blind eye to Crimea we showed our true colours.
We have enough opportunism, lack of standards and empty talk in our domestic politics. But that should certainly not come into foreign policy when millions of innocent lives are at stake.
FWIW, I don’t think there are any easy answers to protecting civilians around the world. But only recognising and addressing the problems when it’s too late for many of them isn’t the way to go about it. |  |
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 10:03 - Apr 13 with 1058 views | Guthrum |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:37 - Apr 13 by EdwardStone |
To derail this thread slightly
I am interested by the relationship between a country's economic clout and its natural resources.
Apparently Africa should be the World's richest continent by a long chalk.
Countries like Germany and Japan seem to flourish despite having to import huge amounts of the most basic raw materials.
Cultural and political reasons I imagine |
Germany did have significant natural resources - iron and coal - at a critical stage in the late 19th century. It's only since oil and gas have taken over from the latter that they have found themselves in such a tricky position. Indeed, the First World War was partly about grabbing mines and industry in northern France and Belgium.
Japan had access to resources in Korea from 1905, then used their organisational and technological edge (partly gained from alliances with European powers and the USA) to grab more from a chaotic China and, eventually, South East Asia.
Africa's problems were that none of the more powerful states had industrialised prior to conquest by Europeans (or Turks, or Arabs), they weren't allowed to while colonies and since independence have been wracked by corruption and plundering. Relatively low population densities and a paucity of good agricultural land in much of the continent did not help - difficult to support an industrial workforce if you haven't the surplus food to sustain them. Also domestic markets had less spending power and trade routes were more difficult than within Europe. | |
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 10:15 - Apr 13 with 1027 views | Guthrum |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:55 - Apr 13 by Churchman |
It was a German France move in 2008 to block Ukraine. It looks like a decision by them based on fear and economic opportunity at the expense of a weaker country that doesn’t matter to them. Who has been bouncing back and forth to Moscow like a tennis ball? Macron. For his election purposes, getting Russia back to the fold or to halt their aggression? Only he knows.
If you are saying that Ukraine joining NATO in 2008 would have encouraged Russia to attack it, would not Article 5 been invoked? I have no faith in Article 5 so it is an open question as far as I’m concerned.
Yes, Germany is short on natural resources which makes its decision to throw its lot in with Putin when they knew what he was years ago to the point of total dependency even more stupid.
As for WW2, yes oil was a factor in its defeat along with shortage of other raw materials, but probably more crucial was its shambolic inefficiency, inability to mass manufacture to any degree and bankruptcy by 1941. How it lasted to 45 is amazing. |
Joining NATO is not an instantaneous process. There would have been a window between a decision to apply and being covered by Article 5. Plus, perhaps, Putin had assurances Ukraine wouldn't be allowed in, so didn't feel the need to follow up his Georgian assault with one upon that country at that time.
Yes, I'm sure that Macron was trying to boost his profile. And probably genuinely wanted to avoid a war, which has effects beyond the countries immediately involved. Plus may have been misled (by his own advisers) into thinking there was a better chance of success than was actually the case.
Germany, unlike it's enemies, took years into WWII before it started to seriously gear up the economy for war. That was one of the reasons for the celebrated stat about productivity increasing through 1944 and into '45, even as they slid to defeat. Because it was starting from a woefully low base compared with Britain, the US or the Soviets. | |
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 10:38 - Apr 13 with 956 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 09:38 - Apr 13 by Guthrum |
To be fair, like Western Europe after the First World War, they were banking upon peace as an opportunity to concentrate upon the economy, following the end of the Cold War and the strains of reunification. Which, in the 1990s, was a pretty safe bet as Russia declined under Yeltsin. Even into Putin's early years, he appeared a steady pair of hands and well integrated into geopolitical structures.
By the time things became clearer, Germany was in too deep and found it hard to backtrack. |
Germany has been in an advantageous position for many years thanks to the Euro. The economics of the Euro zone result in Germany trading in a currency much weaker than the DM.
Trade is everything to Germany, it is little wonder, especially with Merkel’s relationship with Russia, that on oil and gas they gambled on the cheaper option. Taking all your eggs from an unreliable basket has now been shown not to be the brightest option. Germany for example currently has no LNG terminal, and also rundown it’s nuclear industry. |  |
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 10:50 - Apr 13 with 918 views | Churchman |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 10:15 - Apr 13 by Guthrum |
Joining NATO is not an instantaneous process. There would have been a window between a decision to apply and being covered by Article 5. Plus, perhaps, Putin had assurances Ukraine wouldn't be allowed in, so didn't feel the need to follow up his Georgian assault with one upon that country at that time.
Yes, I'm sure that Macron was trying to boost his profile. And probably genuinely wanted to avoid a war, which has effects beyond the countries immediately involved. Plus may have been misled (by his own advisers) into thinking there was a better chance of success than was actually the case.
Germany, unlike it's enemies, took years into WWII before it started to seriously gear up the economy for war. That was one of the reasons for the celebrated stat about productivity increasing through 1944 and into '45, even as they slid to defeat. Because it was starting from a woefully low base compared with Britain, the US or the Soviets. |
The point is that according to DW and other sources it was France and Germany that did the blocking. They own that one. Not the other members, though I suspect others didn’t object to that approach. Who is to say prioritising defence over Ukraine over their economic interests might not have put Putin off? I doubt it tbh.
While it takes time to join any organisation, there was no chance of Ukraine joining through fear of Russia and Germany/France’s desire in particular to take economic advantage. 14 years on they were no closer and didn’t matter. Poland saw it coming and warned and I doubt they were the only ones. Nobody was listening. Germany in particular got it terribly wrong.
Macron doesn’t do advisors apparently. He reads up on a subject over a few days and declares himself a subject matter expert (e.g. Covid vaccine). I suspect Macron was more interested in protecting his interests after the war than anything else. Add in a dollop of compassion and a statesman like suit and there you have it.
Germany production did improve, but it never came close to Britain’s (and it’s Commonwealth) let alone behemoth USA and never could have. They were basically a collection of cottage industries with skilled engineers that they promptly killed in Russia and replaced with slaves (for which they were never held accountable). Germany was organised on political competing lines and was an utter shambles. They could only ever conduct a short war with any hope of winning. The only country that engaged in total war was Britain. Everyone was involved. | | | |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 12:01 - Apr 13 with 793 views | ElephantintheRoom |
You seem to forget that Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 - and nobody in the UK government gave a hoot. Fast forward four years and the primary concern on this site was why Gareth Southgate was persisting with 5 at the back in a World Cup in - erm, Russia
As that live wire USA president stated a few months ago sanctions won’t have any effect on this war because of uncontrolled money laundering in the UK. Without question the UK has been Putin’s strongest ally in his game of Risk |  |
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 12:04 - Apr 13 with 789 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 10:50 - Apr 13 by Churchman |
The point is that according to DW and other sources it was France and Germany that did the blocking. They own that one. Not the other members, though I suspect others didn’t object to that approach. Who is to say prioritising defence over Ukraine over their economic interests might not have put Putin off? I doubt it tbh.
While it takes time to join any organisation, there was no chance of Ukraine joining through fear of Russia and Germany/France’s desire in particular to take economic advantage. 14 years on they were no closer and didn’t matter. Poland saw it coming and warned and I doubt they were the only ones. Nobody was listening. Germany in particular got it terribly wrong.
Macron doesn’t do advisors apparently. He reads up on a subject over a few days and declares himself a subject matter expert (e.g. Covid vaccine). I suspect Macron was more interested in protecting his interests after the war than anything else. Add in a dollop of compassion and a statesman like suit and there you have it.
Germany production did improve, but it never came close to Britain’s (and it’s Commonwealth) let alone behemoth USA and never could have. They were basically a collection of cottage industries with skilled engineers that they promptly killed in Russia and replaced with slaves (for which they were never held accountable). Germany was organised on political competing lines and was an utter shambles. They could only ever conduct a short war with any hope of winning. The only country that engaged in total war was Britain. Everyone was involved. |
Always a pleasure to read both yours and Guthrums posts [Post edited 13 Apr 2022 12:04]
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| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 14:09 - Apr 13 with 629 views | Churchman |
| Germany President unwelcome in Ukraine on 12:01 - Apr 13 by ElephantintheRoom |
You seem to forget that Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 - and nobody in the UK government gave a hoot. Fast forward four years and the primary concern on this site was why Gareth Southgate was persisting with 5 at the back in a World Cup in - erm, Russia
As that live wire USA president stated a few months ago sanctions won’t have any effect on this war because of uncontrolled money laundering in the UK. Without question the UK has been Putin’s strongest ally in his game of Risk |
The decision to block Ukraines entry into nato pre dates Crimea by 6 years. U.K. response to Crimea is here.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/uks-response-to-the-situation-in-ukraine
It makes interesting reading 8 years on. Like the rest of the west, it was not enough.
The opening post was about Germany’s President being told to keep out and the reasons behind it. The UKs approach to Russia money has been discussed elsewhere. With regard to your beloved Macron, interesting response from him to Biden calling out Putin’s genocide - which is what it is.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61093300 | | | |
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