| The Brexit bonus? 10:11 - Mar 20 with 1706 views | DJR |
Interesting article from Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-19/brexit-s-lasting-economic-
Below are a couple of passsages.
Far from being the bloated, inefficient bureaucracy derided by Euroskeptics -- led by former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson when he was the fabulist journalist for the London Telegraph -- who colored the prevailing Brexit media narrative, the EU economy is growing 2.3 percentage points faster than the UK’s on an annual basis, with GDP advancing 24% since 2016, compared with the 6% for the UK. During the 10 years before the Brexit referendum, EU GDP lagged behind the UK annually by 12 basis points, since 2000 by 9 basis points and the two decades preceding Brexit, by 149 basis points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The dichotomy is similar for GDP per individual among the 20 countries sharing the euro. The bloc’s per capita GDP increased 19%, or 2.19 percentage points more than the UK on annual basis since 2016, an overwhelming reversal of the decade prior to Brexit. During the 10 years preceding Brexit, annualized euro zone growth was barely eight basis points better than the UK, and between 2000 and 2016 the euro zone trailed the UK by six basis points. |  | | |  |
| The Brexit bonus? on 10:40 - Mar 20 with 1639 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
All fair points, but most of that is reflective of the lethargic growth in the UK rather than exceptional performance of the EU. The Bloc is still held back by serious debt, structural issues, high unemployment in Southern Europe. The EU and Eurozone’s economic growth has also been dissapointing and lagged way behind the US. In 2008 the EU was roughly equal in GDP terms with the US, today (despite adding Croatia) it is only 80pc of the size of the US economy.
I don’t doubt for a moment that the UK would be better off in the single market, but I’ve always taken a pragmatic view of the EU - whilst on the whole it is a good thing, it is certainly isn’t without serious flaws. |  | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 11:25 - Mar 20 with 1561 views | DJR |
| The Brexit bonus? on 10:40 - Mar 20 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
All fair points, but most of that is reflective of the lethargic growth in the UK rather than exceptional performance of the EU. The Bloc is still held back by serious debt, structural issues, high unemployment in Southern Europe. The EU and Eurozone’s economic growth has also been dissapointing and lagged way behind the US. In 2008 the EU was roughly equal in GDP terms with the US, today (despite adding Croatia) it is only 80pc of the size of the US economy.
I don’t doubt for a moment that the UK would be better off in the single market, but I’ve always taken a pragmatic view of the EU - whilst on the whole it is a good thing, it is certainly isn’t without serious flaws. |
I don't think I can disagree with your last paragraph. | | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 11:51 - Mar 20 with 1478 views | Churchman |
This was utterly predictable before the vote and an absolute certainty as soon as it became known how the country worked and what our interaction with the EU actually was. Nobody knew either of those things. All had to be discovered after these stupid people had already pulled the roof down. If it wasn’t so catastrophic it’d be funny. It didn’t have to be like this.
As for the now - Single Market, Customs Union with a view of rejoining the EU on any terms should be the agenda. It doesn’t matter how punitive - it’d be a lot more favourable than what is to come. Decline is foot on the floor only going to accelerate as EU companies and others establish better, more stable lucrative markets. And as the decline accelerates and people here get poorer there is less incentive for the wealthy European nations to trade with us.
We can trade with the rest of the world? Nope. This is not the 19c. We don’t mass produce anything and there is nothing that we do have to sell that cannot be made elsewhere better, cheaper and with less red tape. We are so cr@p we can’t even do a deal with Canada. Pathetic.
Thanks Cameron, Johnson, Truss, May, the Sunak-weed. Your grotesque incompetence knows no limits. You put self interest, your wretched scumbag party before the interests of the people. You’ve wrecked this country, left it defenceless internally and externally and precipitated its break up.
Rot in hell. |  | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 16:02 - Mar 20 with 1253 views | Swansea_Blue |
I'd be careful of taking Gudgin at face value - he has a reputation for being a bit of a fantasist who denies any negative impacts of Brexit. One of the Conservative opaque Think Tank crowd and in bed with IEA (the pushers of the ideology that sunk Truss and Kwarteng).
He could be right on this, but there are plenty who are critical of his approach in general and this working paper specifically. |  |
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| The Brexit bonus? on 16:58 - Mar 20 with 1202 views | DJR |
I removed my post but may come back on it when I've dug a little further. [Post edited 20 Mar 17:04]
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| The Brexit bonus? on 16:59 - Mar 20 with 1191 views | Churchman |
| The Brexit bonus? on 16:02 - Mar 20 by Swansea_Blue |
I'd be careful of taking Gudgin at face value - he has a reputation for being a bit of a fantasist who denies any negative impacts of Brexit. One of the Conservative opaque Think Tank crowd and in bed with IEA (the pushers of the ideology that sunk Truss and Kwarteng).
He could be right on this, but there are plenty who are critical of his approach in general and this working paper specifically. |
Two interesting articles.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growt
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/britains-post-brexit-trade-patterns
I am struggling to find anything out there that says what a great idea it was. You’ll find ‘not as bad as forecast’ and the U.K. economy more resilient than anticipated, but that’s about your lot on the optimism front.
It’ll be up to the new government to do something about it, if they have the balls - which I doubt. | | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 18:10 - Mar 20 with 1107 views | peterleeblue |
| The Brexit bonus? on 11:51 - Mar 20 by Churchman |
This was utterly predictable before the vote and an absolute certainty as soon as it became known how the country worked and what our interaction with the EU actually was. Nobody knew either of those things. All had to be discovered after these stupid people had already pulled the roof down. If it wasn’t so catastrophic it’d be funny. It didn’t have to be like this.
As for the now - Single Market, Customs Union with a view of rejoining the EU on any terms should be the agenda. It doesn’t matter how punitive - it’d be a lot more favourable than what is to come. Decline is foot on the floor only going to accelerate as EU companies and others establish better, more stable lucrative markets. And as the decline accelerates and people here get poorer there is less incentive for the wealthy European nations to trade with us.
We can trade with the rest of the world? Nope. This is not the 19c. We don’t mass produce anything and there is nothing that we do have to sell that cannot be made elsewhere better, cheaper and with less red tape. We are so cr@p we can’t even do a deal with Canada. Pathetic.
Thanks Cameron, Johnson, Truss, May, the Sunak-weed. Your grotesque incompetence knows no limits. You put self interest, your wretched scumbag party before the interests of the people. You’ve wrecked this country, left it defenceless internally and externally and precipitated its break up.
Rot in hell. |
Unfortunately it's the scumbags in the party to blame. Off the top of my head. Rees Mogg, Davis and the face I could never tire of punching Mark Francois. Utter Scum of the highest order. Also that shower of sh!te called the 1922 committee. [Post edited 20 Mar 18:12]
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| The Brexit bonus? on 19:41 - Mar 20 with 1021 views | Churchman |
| The Brexit bonus? on 18:10 - Mar 20 by peterleeblue |
Unfortunately it's the scumbags in the party to blame. Off the top of my head. Rees Mogg, Davis and the face I could never tire of punching Mark Francois. Utter Scum of the highest order. Also that shower of sh!te called the 1922 committee. [Post edited 20 Mar 18:12]
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Raaaaaaaab. DExEU minister in 2018. Useless. Totally useless. But against some stiff competition my particular loathing is reserved for Gove. Utterly odious. Give me a baseball bat and a good long run up on him and that’d be my Brexit bonus. | | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 21:23 - Mar 20 with 939 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| The Brexit bonus? on 16:02 - Mar 20 by Swansea_Blue |
I'd be careful of taking Gudgin at face value - he has a reputation for being a bit of a fantasist who denies any negative impacts of Brexit. One of the Conservative opaque Think Tank crowd and in bed with IEA (the pushers of the ideology that sunk Truss and Kwarteng).
He could be right on this, but there are plenty who are critical of his approach in general and this working paper specifically. |
It seems very difficult to know who takes an impartial view of the situation. One thing is for sure, the vote to leave was clearly a flawed decision that Cameron never expected and has torn the Conservative Party to pieces. It has done as much harm to them as it has to the country. Ultimately, the country will be better off inside the EU but the fallout of the anti-immigrant and anti-EU propaganda that led to Brexit is not going away any time soon.
It is an utter mess. |  |
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| The Brexit bonus? on 21:34 - Mar 20 with 899 views | Aviator |
Let’s not throw the baby (Brexit) out with the bath water (Tories). I don’t think Brexit has much to do with the current economic climate. I’m pleased to see Labour now talking about some sensible economic policies and relaxing the fiscal rules. | | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 22:14 - Mar 20 with 837 views | Swansea_Blue |
| The Brexit bonus? on 21:34 - Mar 20 by Aviator |
Let’s not throw the baby (Brexit) out with the bath water (Tories). I don’t think Brexit has much to do with the current economic climate. I’m pleased to see Labour now talking about some sensible economic policies and relaxing the fiscal rules. |
Both need to get in the bin (unfortunately Brexit won’t any time soon). Both have played a part in hamstringing the UK and have put us back years compared to where we could have been. | |
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| The Brexit bonus? on 22:58 - Mar 20 with 812 views | AndrewRatcliffITFC |
| The Brexit bonus? on 16:02 - Mar 20 by Swansea_Blue |
I'd be careful of taking Gudgin at face value - he has a reputation for being a bit of a fantasist who denies any negative impacts of Brexit. One of the Conservative opaque Think Tank crowd and in bed with IEA (the pushers of the ideology that sunk Truss and Kwarteng).
He could be right on this, but there are plenty who are critical of his approach in general and this working paper specifically. |
Thanks for the heads up , could you point me in the direction of the critique of the working paper please? | | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 00:04 - Mar 21 with 760 views | Churchman |
| The Brexit bonus? on 21:34 - Mar 20 by Aviator |
Let’s not throw the baby (Brexit) out with the bath water (Tories). I don’t think Brexit has much to do with the current economic climate. I’m pleased to see Labour now talking about some sensible economic policies and relaxing the fiscal rules. |
Brexit has everything to do with this country’s economic decline. That’s before you get to the other corrosive aspects of it.
It and the tories both belong in the bin - apart from Cameron, May, Truss Sunak and Johnson who belong in jail awaiting trial for crimes against the state - and of course their assets seized. | | | |
| The Brexit bonus? on 06:23 - Mar 21 with 681 views | ElephantintheRoom |
This is the same Bloomberg that decreed the Brexit referendum was the greatest act of national folly since Hitler invaded Russia.
Maybe they foresaw some war action on the eastern front | |
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| The Brexit bonus? on 08:32 - Mar 21 with 597 views | Vic |
So those stats basically show that it was the UK that was holding the whole of the EU back! |  |
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| The Brexit bonus? on 08:35 - Mar 21 with 584 views | Steve_M |
| The Brexit bonus? on 21:23 - Mar 20 by Nthsuffolkblue |
It seems very difficult to know who takes an impartial view of the situation. One thing is for sure, the vote to leave was clearly a flawed decision that Cameron never expected and has torn the Conservative Party to pieces. It has done as much harm to them as it has to the country. Ultimately, the country will be better off inside the EU but the fallout of the anti-immigrant and anti-EU propaganda that led to Brexit is not going away any time soon.
It is an utter mess. |
Even with the vote to leave there were ways of leaving that would not have caused the amount of disruption to the UK economy or the amount of division that pursuing a maximal strategy has done since.
That would have involved the blowhards in the Tory party and the press taking the time to understand the UK economy first though. |  |
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