| Calculator result - "par for the course" 20:21 - Mar 4 with 2374 views | Trequartista |
This shows where the top 4 will end up all things being equal. This is showing that Leicester and Leeds have slightly easier run-ins than us. I might update it after each game.
Formulas:
Top 4 v Top 4 = 1-0
Top 4 v Playoff team = 2-0
Top 4 v Lower than playoff team = 3-0
Playoff team v Top 4 = 1-1
Lower than playoff team v Top 4 = 0-1
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | W | D | L | F | A | Pts | GD |
| Leicester City | 46 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 46 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 42 | 20 | 107 | 55 |
| Leeds United | 46 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 53 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 17 | 104 | 56 |
| Ipswich Town | 46 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 60 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 102 | 43 |
| Southampton | 46 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 94 | 39 |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Bristol City |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Stoke City |
| Sunderland | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 2 | 0 | Preston North End |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Cardiff City | 0 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Hull City | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Sunderland |
| Leicester City | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Sheffield Wednesday |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Millwall |
| Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Bristol City | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Watford | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Ipswich Town | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Leeds United | 2 | 0 | Hull City |
| Leicester City | 2 | 0 | Norwich City |
| Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
| Coventry City | 1 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Birmingham City |
| Norwich City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Sunderland |
| Millwall | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 2 | 0 | Coventry City |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Watford |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
| Plymouth Argyle | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Watford |
| Cardiff City | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
| Coventry City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Leicester City | 2 | 0 | West Bromwich Albion |
| Middlesbrough | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Hull City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Preston North End | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Stoke City |
4th May 2024 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Huddersfield Town |
| Leeds United | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:31 - Mar 4 with 2178 views | WestSussexBlue |
No way will 102 points not be enough.
Leicester I’m sure will drop points against Sunderland and Southampton.
Southampton themselves are stumbling through results and confidence in Martin isn’t great.
It’s Leeds that I see are going to finish the strongest. |  | | |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:33 - Mar 4 with 2161 views | Trequartista |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:31 - Mar 4 by WestSussexBlue |
No way will 102 points not be enough.
Leicester I’m sure will drop points against Sunderland and Southampton.
Southampton themselves are stumbling through results and confidence in Martin isn’t great.
It’s Leeds that I see are going to finish the strongest. |
I agree, I don't think three teams will get 100+ points, but that's not really the point, i'm saying what the top three will be if all perform to par. I could tweak the formulas so they all get less points, but the outcome will be much the same. [Post edited 4 Mar 21:34]
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:10 - Mar 17 with 1558 views | Trequartista |
Still need a couple of slip ups from those above
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | W | D | L | F | A | Pts | GD |
| Leicester City | 46 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 46 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 21 | 107 | 55 |
| Leeds United | 46 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 50 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 17 | 104 | 54 |
| Ipswich Town | 45 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 63 | 29 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 98 | 42 |
| Southampton | 46 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 94 | 39 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Bristol City | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Watford | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Ipswich Town | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Leeds United | 2 | 0 | Hull City |
| Leicester City | 2 | 0 | Norwich City |
| Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
| Coventry City | 1 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Birmingham City |
| Norwich City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Sunderland |
| Millwall | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Southampton | 2 | 0 | Coventry City |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Watford |
| Plymouth Argyle | 0 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Middlesbrough |
| Leeds United | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Watford |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Preston North End |
| Cardiff City | 0 | 1 | Southampton |
| Leicester City | 2 | 0 | West Bromwich Albion |
| Middlesbrough | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Leicester City | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Hull City | 1 | 1 | Ipswich Town |
| Preston North End | 1 | 1 | Leicester City |
| Queens Park Rangers | 0 | 1 | Leeds United |
| Southampton | 3 | 0 | Stoke City |
4th May 2024 | | Ipswich Town | 3 | 0 | Huddersfield Town |
| Leeds United | 1 | 0 | Southampton |
| Leicester City | 3 | 0 | Blackburn Rovers |
That should say 99 points for Ipswich, the Coventry v Ipswich fixture has been removed from the calculator. [Post edited 17 Mar 21:12]
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:40 - Mar 17 with 1430 views | jayessess |
Our last 8 is four pretty winnable games (Blackburn A, Watford H, Boro H, Huddersfield H) and very tough looking ones (Cov A, The Abomination A, Hull A, Soton H). Win the four we should win, win two of the others and I'll feel like we've more than done our bit and what will be will be. |  |
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 23:01 - Mar 17 with 1231 views | Trequartista |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:40 - Mar 17 by jayessess |
Our last 8 is four pretty winnable games (Blackburn A, Watford H, Boro H, Huddersfield H) and very tough looking ones (Cov A, The Abomination A, Hull A, Soton H). Win the four we should win, win two of the others and I'll feel like we've more than done our bit and what will be will be. |
I agree that 6 wins (99 points) would leave us incredibly unlucky not to make to the top 2. We can also be heartened by the experience we had of winning at Barnsley, Bolton, Derby etc away last season when needed, albeit obviously at a lower level.
My table is just a sort of rough guide to how many slipups and conversely how many fantastic results each team needs to veer from the "par for the course" finish. | |
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 03:31 - Mar 18 with 1095 views | Westcountryblue |
You'd hope we could win our remaining 4 home games. In addition to that, a win and a draw in our remaining 3 away games would take us to 97 points. Surely enough !
For me, Leed's have been outstanding and carry such a threat going forward, like ourselves. They however are far more reliable at the back.
Leicester are slightly different. Maresca's system doesn't have the ability to blow teams away and i think they may struggle against teams using a low block and scraping for their lives. 1.55 points on average per game since Jan. We just need to keep bettering that ! | | | |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 08:23 - Mar 18 with 852 views | StokieBlue |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:33 - Mar 4 by Trequartista |
I agree, I don't think three teams will get 100+ points, but that's not really the point, i'm saying what the top three will be if all perform to par. I could tweak the formulas so they all get less points, but the outcome will be much the same. [Post edited 4 Mar 21:34]
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Your extrapolation shows none of the 3 teams losing any of a combined 27 matches - that would be highly unlikely I would think.
Over the season thus far they have lost a combined 18 matches from 113 played so ~16%. To go from 16% to 0% would be an incredible performance from all 3 teams.
SB [Post edited 18 Mar 11:15]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 09:45 - Mar 18 with 686 views | BlueandTruesince82 |
| Calculator result - "par for the course" on 21:31 - Mar 4 by WestSussexBlue |
No way will 102 points not be enough.
Leicester I’m sure will drop points against Sunderland and Southampton.
Southampton themselves are stumbling through results and confidence in Martin isn’t great.
It’s Leeds that I see are going to finish the strongest. |
Sunderland have been pretty bad of late. Even with Beale gone not seeing much improvement. I don't see them taking points off Leics.
I really think it's 100 points plus. I hope I'm wrong and Leics stumble under pressure. Don't see Leeds dropping much at all |  |
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