| For those of you interested in election models on 10:20 - Feb 12 with 968 views | StokieBlue |
So a win for Bernie yesterday in line with the predictions (although that was a fairly easy one).
Looks like it might come down to a Bernie/Bloomberg fight for the nomination. I can fully understand why a lot of people want Sanders but I also do think there are a lot of easy cheap shots which Trump can stick on him which plays into this hands and his style of campaigning.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 11:14 - Feb 12 with 952 views | LankHenners |
| For those of you interested in election models on 10:20 - Feb 12 by StokieBlue |
So a win for Bernie yesterday in line with the predictions (although that was a fairly easy one).
Looks like it might come down to a Bernie/Bloomberg fight for the nomination. I can fully understand why a lot of people want Sanders but I also do think there are a lot of easy cheap shots which Trump can stick on him which plays into this hands and his style of campaigning.
SB |
Without looking at the technicalities of it, I don't see how anyone can think it's fair that Bloomberg can just buy his way into the election like he is. I can see a lot of disengagement from politics and the Democratic Party if they bully in their pick of a centrist establishment figure who, like Trump, is a rich guy from New York with a history of making abhorrent comments on race.
Bernie and Trump, in one sense, are fighting over the same bunch of people. They're both 'anti-establishment' (although Trump isn't really) and are looking to appeal to people who feel left out or forgotten from said establishment. Trump goes for the patriotism and MAGA angle whereas Bernie hits hard over things they care about like not being able to afford healthcare under the current system. Bernie would worry Trump the most (without checking I believe there's audio evidence of Trump previously stating he fears coming up against him more than anyone else) and, similarly to him, has built up a grassroots movement of young and/or disenfranchised people willing to make a change.
I've seen this point made elsewhere and it's a good one - Bernie needs to avoid falling into the trap Corbyn did of getting engulfed in leftist trophyism and remember he needs to sell himself as a proud American who represents everyone. He does a pretty good job of it with the 'not me, us' stuff but, especially if Bloomberg becomes a main competitor, he'll need to convince the ordinary centrist voter he's not a cult hero.
FWIW, I think the likelihood of Trump not winning in November is pretty slim whatever but anyone but Bernie makes a re-election a certainty. |  |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 12:26 - Feb 12 with 918 views | IpswichKnight |
| For those of you interested in election models on 10:20 - Feb 12 by StokieBlue |
So a win for Bernie yesterday in line with the predictions (although that was a fairly easy one).
Looks like it might come down to a Bernie/Bloomberg fight for the nomination. I can fully understand why a lot of people want Sanders but I also do think there are a lot of easy cheap shots which Trump can stick on him which plays into this hands and his style of campaigning.
SB |
I wouldn't say it was easy, he got the same amount of delegates in NH as Buttigieg that was not part of the plan. Biden is tanking everywhere now and is probably busted now if he doesn't win big in South Carolina he will have to quit. Buttigieg is the one to watch if he pick up votes in South Carolina he will be the main opponent for Bernie and probably one The Donald would least like to face, young and moderate everything Bernie isn't. |  | | |
| For those of you interested in election models on 13:05 - Feb 12 with 889 views | StokieBlue |
| For those of you interested in election models on 12:26 - Feb 12 by IpswichKnight |
I wouldn't say it was easy, he got the same amount of delegates in NH as Buttigieg that was not part of the plan. Biden is tanking everywhere now and is probably busted now if he doesn't win big in South Carolina he will have to quit. Buttigieg is the one to watch if he pick up votes in South Carolina he will be the main opponent for Bernie and probably one The Donald would least like to face, young and moderate everything Bernie isn't. |
Do you think the US is ready to elect an openly gay president? They haven't even managed a woman yet.
It's sad that it's even a question though.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 13:07 - Feb 12 with 879 views | lowhouseblue |
| For those of you interested in election models on 13:05 - Feb 12 by StokieBlue |
Do you think the US is ready to elect an openly gay president? They haven't even managed a woman yet.
It's sad that it's even a question though.
SB |
i am struggling to see how trump loses now i'm afraid. very depressing. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 13:10 - Feb 12 with 865 views | LankHenners |
| For those of you interested in election models on 12:26 - Feb 12 by IpswichKnight |
I wouldn't say it was easy, he got the same amount of delegates in NH as Buttigieg that was not part of the plan. Biden is tanking everywhere now and is probably busted now if he doesn't win big in South Carolina he will have to quit. Buttigieg is the one to watch if he pick up votes in South Carolina he will be the main opponent for Bernie and probably one The Donald would least like to face, young and moderate everything Bernie isn't. |
Mayor Pete would get bullied by Trump plus his polling with minority groups is very low. He's also facing some tough questions over the record of the police department he ran the rule over and his rather suspicious military service which looks little more than sitting behind a desk and posing for photos with some guns. He's currently the Democrats pick to disrupt Bernie but that'll change when Bloomberg enters the ring. | |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 13:12 - Feb 12 with 858 views | StokieBlue |
| For those of you interested in election models on 11:14 - Feb 12 by LankHenners |
Without looking at the technicalities of it, I don't see how anyone can think it's fair that Bloomberg can just buy his way into the election like he is. I can see a lot of disengagement from politics and the Democratic Party if they bully in their pick of a centrist establishment figure who, like Trump, is a rich guy from New York with a history of making abhorrent comments on race.
Bernie and Trump, in one sense, are fighting over the same bunch of people. They're both 'anti-establishment' (although Trump isn't really) and are looking to appeal to people who feel left out or forgotten from said establishment. Trump goes for the patriotism and MAGA angle whereas Bernie hits hard over things they care about like not being able to afford healthcare under the current system. Bernie would worry Trump the most (without checking I believe there's audio evidence of Trump previously stating he fears coming up against him more than anyone else) and, similarly to him, has built up a grassroots movement of young and/or disenfranchised people willing to make a change.
I've seen this point made elsewhere and it's a good one - Bernie needs to avoid falling into the trap Corbyn did of getting engulfed in leftist trophyism and remember he needs to sell himself as a proud American who represents everyone. He does a pretty good job of it with the 'not me, us' stuff but, especially if Bloomberg becomes a main competitor, he'll need to convince the ordinary centrist voter he's not a cult hero.
FWIW, I think the likelihood of Trump not winning in November is pretty slim whatever but anyone but Bernie makes a re-election a certainty. |
Bloomberg is certainly throwing money at it but Sanders is hardly being frugal. The sums of money being spent on advertising and targeted campaigning is staggering really.
The trouble is you can already point to the things Trump is going to say about Sanders:
- Too old
- Recent heartattack
- Communist (he will say this)
- Destroying healthcare
- Taking money from "Americans" to redistribute to immigrants
- Etc, etc, etc.
Many people will buy those points, especially when targeted with specific adverts.
I know Sanders is ahead in the polls but I am unsure he can beat Trump over the long haul.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 13:19 - Feb 12 with 827 views | IpswichKnight |
| For those of you interested in election models on 13:10 - Feb 12 by LankHenners |
Mayor Pete would get bullied by Trump plus his polling with minority groups is very low. He's also facing some tough questions over the record of the police department he ran the rule over and his rather suspicious military service which looks little more than sitting behind a desk and posing for photos with some guns. He's currently the Democrats pick to disrupt Bernie but that'll change when Bloomberg enters the ring. |
I doubt The Donald will use the military angle and invite comparisons to his Vietnam record, the other bits are all correct and valid points. I can't see Bernie beating The Donald as others have said there is far to much to beat him with. | | | |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 13:23 - Feb 12 with 812 views | StokieBlue |
| For those of you interested in election models on 13:19 - Feb 12 by IpswichKnight |
I doubt The Donald will use the military angle and invite comparisons to his Vietnam record, the other bits are all correct and valid points. I can't see Bernie beating The Donald as others have said there is far to much to beat him with. |
Why do you think that?
Everyone knows about Trump's Vietnam record and it made no difference. If it comes up again he will treat it in exactly the same way. He won't understand or care about the irony of his position.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 13:24 - Feb 12 with 811 views | LankHenners |
| For those of you interested in election models on 13:12 - Feb 12 by StokieBlue |
Bloomberg is certainly throwing money at it but Sanders is hardly being frugal. The sums of money being spent on advertising and targeted campaigning is staggering really.
The trouble is you can already point to the things Trump is going to say about Sanders:
- Too old
- Recent heartattack
- Communist (he will say this)
- Destroying healthcare
- Taking money from "Americans" to redistribute to immigrants
- Etc, etc, etc.
Many people will buy those points, especially when targeted with specific adverts.
I know Sanders is ahead in the polls but I am unsure he can beat Trump over the long haul.
SB |
Yes, though Bloomberg can afford to do it as he's a billionaire. Sanders' funding is done with the rejection of millionaires and billionaires help, instead being generated through the everyday people, which translates to more support which is more votes.
For sure Trump will go with those, though he's not a great deal younger so can't see the age issue sticking. Sanders will make a better job of turning the attacks around then others might, and he can really push the healthcare point to traditional working class republican voters that he can help them with his plan whilst they continue to suffer under the current plan.
Trump has plenty of points to hit but no-one does a good job of going after them as it's all just pointing out that he lies a lot which people don't care about. A tenacious debater like Sanders would drive things home that the moderates couldn't. Sanders should have been nominated in 2016 but liberal America got so caught up in the need to elect a woman they put forward someone truly unlikable and about as good as managing a campaign as Paul Lambert is at managing Ipswich Town.
I do agree that Trump's nationalism and xenophobia will probably prove too strong regardless, and Sanders is battling against the establishment in his own party (I really wouldn't be surprised to see articles in the New York Times, e.g., from Democrat elites almost backing Trump if it came to him vs Sanders) which may put people off voting for the party full stop. However, if someone will beat him, Sanders will do it. | |
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| For those of you interested in election models on 13:28 - Feb 12 with 798 views | LankHenners |
| For those of you interested in election models on 13:19 - Feb 12 by IpswichKnight |
I doubt The Donald will use the military angle and invite comparisons to his Vietnam record, the other bits are all correct and valid points. I can't see Bernie beating The Donald as others have said there is far to much to beat him with. |
I meant that more in terms of beating Sanders to the nomination. Yes, Trump wouldn't bring it up (well, he might as he's pretty stupid) and people don't seem to mind Trump's lack of service anyway.
I'm not convinced there's a lot of stuff to beat him with, certainly not much that Bernie would expect and be able to push back against. Biden and Warren are lost causes, no-one else will trouble the top of the pack, Trump will walk all over Pete, Bloomberg's a less outwardly vile version of Trump. It's Bernie or bust really. | |
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