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How long til the next financial crash..... on 22:49 - Jul 29 by gazzer1999
Well Poland received over £11 billion net from the EU last year as the biggest beneficiary. And we contributed net roughly the same. Looks like wealth distribution to me. Remind me again why I want to stay.
Because we receive far more than £11 billion worth of benefits from free trade and trade deals with the rest of the world.
Because we benefit from the security of the EU.
Because a stable Europe is to the benefit environmentally and economically as well as politically to the whole continent.
Remind me what we will gain when we leave.
Also how do Germany (who are higher net contributors) gain more from the EU than we do?
How long til the next financial crash..... on 22:55 - Jul 29 by Nthsuffolkblue
Because we receive far more than £11 billion worth of benefits from free trade and trade deals with the rest of the world.
Because we benefit from the security of the EU.
Because a stable Europe is to the benefit environmentally and economically as well as politically to the whole continent.
Remind me what we will gain when we leave.
Also how do Germany (who are higher net contributors) gain more from the EU than we do?
You do realise that Britain is the only nation in Europe that meets its commitments for spending on defence, so I guess the rest of europe gains from that. Look also at the tariffs that are levied on the rest of the world for trade, we collect these and hand over the money to Europe. Well Germany is the largest economy in Europe, largest exporter of cars, of which we are their biggest customer in Europe. If we benefit from free trade deals around the world because of the EU, then perhaps if we leave we can have a free trade deal with Europe.
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How long til the next financial crash..... on 23:11 - Jul 29 with 693 views
How long til the next financial crash..... on 23:03 - Jul 29 by gazzer1999
You do realise that Britain is the only nation in Europe that meets its commitments for spending on defence, so I guess the rest of europe gains from that. Look also at the tariffs that are levied on the rest of the world for trade, we collect these and hand over the money to Europe. Well Germany is the largest economy in Europe, largest exporter of cars, of which we are their biggest customer in Europe. If we benefit from free trade deals around the world because of the EU, then perhaps if we leave we can have a free trade deal with Europe.
You are not making a lot of sense.
We do meet those spending commitments … and yet are turning to the EU for support in the gulf. So yes, they do benefit, as do we. We won't if we leave. Neither will they unless we choose to support whatever action they might ask us to support.
So we will gain control of spending of tariff money. Is that in addition to the £11billion net contribution we make?
I never said we benefit from free trade deals around the world. We benefit from them within the EU and from trade deals negotiated by the EU with the rest of the world.
If we leave, we will need to learn negotiate good deals with the rest of the world with far less leverage. We will also need to learn to negotiate trade deals with the EU far better than we have sown we can negotiate a divorce settlement.
One expert said something along the lines of the EU have expert negotiators and we will get hammered on trade again and again.
Feel free to post a benefit of leaving.
Got to go now but might catch up with your reply tomorrow.
How long til the next financial crash..... on 00:01 - Jul 30 by BanksterDebtSlave
How's your nose at predicting crashes Stokie?
Well I'm no mystic Stokie but I think that great Rumsfeld speech is a good framework for an answer.
The current situation at DB is one partially of its own making. A lot of other institutions took their medicine early and got an the stuff done which DB is only now starting to do. They do have a huge balance sheet but I don't think it'll cause a crash, the likely endgame is some form of German government ownership one would imagine. Given it's a known known though it shouldn't cause chaos, at least you'd hope not. If for someone reason it defaulted then all bets are off.
It's more the known unknowns that might cause issues but can be mitigated against. For instance, Chinese property debt currently stands at something like x25 the total US subprime debt as of 2008. That might not directly cause a crash as exposure outside China is likely pretty low but effects from that would like spill out of China into other areas. Other things in this bracket could be an ongoing global trade war, something which Trump seems keen to start.
Then you have the unknown unknowns, which but definition we can't predict but are probably the more likely things to cause any issues.
I think you'll have to wait a little while yet for your reversion to simpler times.
SB
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How long til the next financial crash..... on 07:52 - Jul 30 with 628 views
How long til the next financial crash..... on 07:27 - Jul 30 by StokieBlue
Well I'm no mystic Stokie but I think that great Rumsfeld speech is a good framework for an answer.
The current situation at DB is one partially of its own making. A lot of other institutions took their medicine early and got an the stuff done which DB is only now starting to do. They do have a huge balance sheet but I don't think it'll cause a crash, the likely endgame is some form of German government ownership one would imagine. Given it's a known known though it shouldn't cause chaos, at least you'd hope not. If for someone reason it defaulted then all bets are off.
It's more the known unknowns that might cause issues but can be mitigated against. For instance, Chinese property debt currently stands at something like x25 the total US subprime debt as of 2008. That might not directly cause a crash as exposure outside China is likely pretty low but effects from that would like spill out of China into other areas. Other things in this bracket could be an ongoing global trade war, something which Trump seems keen to start.
Then you have the unknown unknowns, which but definition we can't predict but are probably the more likely things to cause any issues.
I think you'll have to wait a little while yet for your reversion to simpler times.
SB
Maybe institutions should not be permitted to reach 'too big to fail' size. Cheeky last line ! Best we manage our way there rather than crash towatds it.
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
How long til the next financial crash..... on 21:51 - Jul 29 by Nthsuffolkblue
Care to share some official figures for those claims?
There is some technical analysis that suggests a big recession could be on the way. But we know economists and analysts can barely agree on anything when it comes to economics so depends on which side of the argument you want to believe. I'd say economists are even worse than historians when it comes to disagreeing on almost anything and everything!
I think a big crash is coming but I wouldn't like to put a timeframe on it as some artificial bubbles can run a lot longer than you ever expect. The one to always watch for is the 200 day moving average (either simple or exponential, I prefer the latter) on some of the key charts such as the S&P 500 index (SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI). While the charts remain above the 200 day moving average on the key timeframes (so weekly and monthly) then there is no cause for panic just yet. If you look at the technical analysis on those they still look very healthy. For example, the key 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages are all sloping up very nicely on those (which indicates a lovely smooth uptrend) on the longer significant time frames (i.e. the weekly and monthly charts) and until that structure is broken the party aint over yet! And obviously Trump will fight tooth and nail to keep it that way to at least after the next election as he's constantly reminding people how healthy the stock markets have performed under his watch, so if that all goes crash bang wallop in the next few months, then so have probably his chances of re-election! But what we do know is when you get a significant break to the downside (and panic sets in) those lovely uptrends can come apart in ugly fashion. As they say, the trend is your friend, until the end!
Traders and market analysts commonly use several periods in creating moving averages to plot on their charts. For identifying significant, long-term support and resistance levels and overall trends, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are the most common. Based on historical statistics, these longer-term moving averages are considered more reliable trend indicators and less susceptible to temporary fluctuations in price. The 200-day moving average is considered especially significant in stock trading. As long as the 50-day moving average of a stock price remains above the 200-day moving average, the stock is generally thought to be in a bullish trend. A crossover to the downside of the 200-day moving average is interpreted as bearish. The death cross is always worth looking out for (when the 50 day moving average crosses over the 200 day moving average to the downside, that usually spells real trouble and a potential long-term bear market) see explanation here. https://trader.autochartist.com/swing-trading-strategy-the-golden-cross-and-deat Conversely it can be very bullish (it's called the golden cross) when a chart moves in the opposite way when the 50 day moving average crosses over the 200 day moving average but to the upside rather than the down side.
How long til the next financial crash..... on 09:30 - Jul 30 by midastouch
There is some technical analysis that suggests a big recession could be on the way. But we know economists and analysts can barely agree on anything when it comes to economics so depends on which side of the argument you want to believe. I'd say economists are even worse than historians when it comes to disagreeing on almost anything and everything!
I think a big crash is coming but I wouldn't like to put a timeframe on it as some artificial bubbles can run a lot longer than you ever expect. The one to always watch for is the 200 day moving average (either simple or exponential, I prefer the latter) on some of the key charts such as the S&P 500 index (SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI). While the charts remain above the 200 day moving average on the key timeframes (so weekly and monthly) then there is no cause for panic just yet. If you look at the technical analysis on those they still look very healthy. For example, the key 50 day, 100 day and 200 day moving averages are all sloping up very nicely on those (which indicates a lovely smooth uptrend) on the longer significant time frames (i.e. the weekly and monthly charts) and until that structure is broken the party aint over yet! And obviously Trump will fight tooth and nail to keep it that way to at least after the next election as he's constantly reminding people how healthy the stock markets have performed under his watch, so if that all goes crash bang wallop in the next few months, then so have probably his chances of re-election! But what we do know is when you get a significant break to the downside (and panic sets in) those lovely uptrends can come apart in ugly fashion. As they say, the trend is your friend, until the end!
Traders and market analysts commonly use several periods in creating moving averages to plot on their charts. For identifying significant, long-term support and resistance levels and overall trends, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are the most common. Based on historical statistics, these longer-term moving averages are considered more reliable trend indicators and less susceptible to temporary fluctuations in price. The 200-day moving average is considered especially significant in stock trading. As long as the 50-day moving average of a stock price remains above the 200-day moving average, the stock is generally thought to be in a bullish trend. A crossover to the downside of the 200-day moving average is interpreted as bearish. The death cross is always worth looking out for (when the 50 day moving average crosses over the 200 day moving average to the downside, that usually spells real trouble and a potential long-term bear market) see explanation here. https://trader.autochartist.com/swing-trading-strategy-the-golden-cross-and-deat Conversely it can be very bullish (it's called the golden cross) when a chart moves in the opposite way when the 50 day moving average crosses over the 200 day moving average but to the upside rather than the down side.
Nice summary with the caveat that technical analysis using moving averages could be useful it's not a golden bullet for predicting anything, especially if everyone is using the same periods.
It's inherently a lagging analysis given the way it's calculated.
SB
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How long til the next financial crash..... on 09:52 - Jul 30 with 572 views
How long til the next financial crash..... on 09:48 - Jul 30 by StokieBlue
Nice summary with the caveat that technical analysis using moving averages could be useful it's not a golden bullet for predicting anything, especially if everyone is using the same periods.
It's inherently a lagging analysis given the way it's calculated.
SB
All indicators are lagging but the big boys do pay particular attention to the 200 day moving average. Time and time again you find the price holds that level. Even if it sneaks above or below you often find the buyers or sellers step back in and the level is held. When it finally does break then you can get some explosive moves. It's like a key line in the sand where buyers and sellers go to war and the outcome is very often significant to where that market goes thereafter in the long-term. Pure price action is as good a way as any of reading charts but anybody who ignores the 200 day moving average on their chart is a lot braver than I am! :-)
How long til the next financial crash..... on 09:52 - Jul 30 by midastouch
All indicators are lagging but the big boys do pay particular attention to the 200 day moving average. Time and time again you find the price holds that level. Even if it sneaks above or below you often find the buyers or sellers step back in and the level is held. When it finally does break then you can get some explosive moves. It's like a key line in the sand where buyers and sellers go to war and the outcome is very often significant to where that market goes thereafter in the long-term. Pure price action is as good a way as any of reading charts but anybody who ignores the 200 day moving average on their chart is a lot braver than I am! :-)
I should add the longer the timeframe the more substantial is the 200 day moving average. It's inevitable it will get broken far more often on say a 1 hour timeframe chart than it will a daily timeframe. The lower timeframes are almost like noise. But the 200 day moving average on the higher weekly and monthly charts is very significant indeed. When the 200 day gets properly breached on a longer time sometimes the price doesn't return there again for months or years. Take the price of silver, it broke the 200 day (EMA) moving average to the downside back in about April 2013. It didn't get back up to test that same moving average again until about June or July 2016 (and this time at much lower price level), it tried for weeks to break and hold but in the end the 200 day held firm and the price of silver rolled back down again. Interestingly, the price is now finally tickling the 200 day moving average on the silver charts again (XAGUSD) so it's another key line in the sand for silver. Silver was hyped for years but after falling spectacularly in 2011 it's been a long retreat. But when something becomes hated and the sentiment is very low (contrarian) that's often the best time to buy. Maybe (and I need to emphasise the word maybe!) silver might finally be threatening to break out from it's almost 8 year slumber. It seems to be threatening to do so but there have been a lot of false dawns for silver over the last 8 years.
How long til the next financial crash..... on 10:09 - Jul 30 by midastouch
I should add the longer the timeframe the more substantial is the 200 day moving average. It's inevitable it will get broken far more often on say a 1 hour timeframe chart than it will a daily timeframe. The lower timeframes are almost like noise. But the 200 day moving average on the higher weekly and monthly charts is very significant indeed. When the 200 day gets properly breached on a longer time sometimes the price doesn't return there again for months or years. Take the price of silver, it broke the 200 day (EMA) moving average to the downside back in about April 2013. It didn't get back up to test that same moving average again until about June or July 2016 (and this time at much lower price level), it tried for weeks to break and hold but in the end the 200 day held firm and the price of silver rolled back down again. Interestingly, the price is now finally tickling the 200 day moving average on the silver charts again (XAGUSD) so it's another key line in the sand for silver. Silver was hyped for years but after falling spectacularly in 2011 it's been a long retreat. But when something becomes hated and the sentiment is very low (contrarian) that's often the best time to buy. Maybe (and I need to emphasise the word maybe!) silver might finally be threatening to break out from it's almost 8 year slumber. It seems to be threatening to do so but there have been a lot of false dawns for silver over the last 8 years.
Should of said "its almost 8 year slumber." Not "it's". I'm better at reading technical charts than I am punctuation and grammar! :-)
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