| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? 08:13 - Nov 16 with 1490 views | StokieBlue |
So, we now know the deal is rubbish on virtually every level. May knows this, the public knows this and the EU knows this.
Without being too cynical it could have been designed this way to push the UK into two options - no deal or remain. Tusk's comments yesterday make this seem possible (ie. no brexit still best for everyone) and it could work. The UK could be pushed into remain which I would like but it does pose some difficult questions about the nature of the EU.
If you can't really viably leave then what is the argument against going full federal and creating a USE? If countries are effectively snared once their economies and laws become intermingled with the EU then surely a USE with all the appropriate federalised policies, funding and representation would be a far more effective and efficient state than the EU is? It should be able to compete with the US and China or a fairly even keel.
So what's the argument against it given what we now know? Or has this whole sage shown Europe in general that a USE is the only viable long-term option?
SB |  |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:29 - Nov 16 with 1454 views | Steve_M |
I think it's clearly possible to leave, it's just not possible to leave and stay closely integrated with the EU for trade. For all the talk of Global Britain, trade is heavily weighted by geography and our economy is closely integrated with the rest of the EU after 45 years of membership. It's just to disentangle that is difficult and would take years something that very few Brexiter seem prepared to acknowledge even now.
I do agree on the second point though, the UK has failed to have a proper debate about it's global role, although at least post-referendum it's been markedly better than beforehand, and relative strength in the world. To me, it is markedly better being a larger country in a regional bloc than trying to make headway as an independent nation. Even the military strength that gave Britain an outsize role has weakened as a result of Cameron and Osborne's 'austerity'.
The EU also needs some form of reckoning about how it evolves, the treaties talk of "Ever closer Union" but that becomes harder the larger it gets, it was one reason why the UK was such a strong proponent of enlargement to include eastern Europe. It probably needs to move more towards "variable geometry" allowing different countries different levels of integration. |  |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:31 - Nov 16 with 1448 views | Guthrum |
I don't think this saga has particularly shown that it is impossible to leave the EU in any kind of organised fashion. More it is a demonstration that, if you're going to do such a thing, a considerable amount of planning and organisation has to be done first.
It cannot be done from a precarious political position (so don't unnecessarily put yourself in one half-way through) and there must be a clear, agreed set of objectives from the outset. Get your best negotiators onto the job, give them clear, unambiguous instructions, then full backing and firm direction throughout. Do not treat it as some sort of populist, sloganeering game.
In terms of its international (especially economic) clout, I don't think the EU necessarily needs to bind itself closer together politically. Neither ought it to be a rushed process. The USA took a century (and a civil war) to work through the issues of federalism, with the advantage of a common language and similar culture. Germany much longer (with more wars). |  |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:33 - Nov 16 with 1440 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:31 - Nov 16 by Guthrum |
I don't think this saga has particularly shown that it is impossible to leave the EU in any kind of organised fashion. More it is a demonstration that, if you're going to do such a thing, a considerable amount of planning and organisation has to be done first.
It cannot be done from a precarious political position (so don't unnecessarily put yourself in one half-way through) and there must be a clear, agreed set of objectives from the outset. Get your best negotiators onto the job, give them clear, unambiguous instructions, then full backing and firm direction throughout. Do not treat it as some sort of populist, sloganeering game.
In terms of its international (especially economic) clout, I don't think the EU necessarily needs to bind itself closer together politically. Neither ought it to be a rushed process. The USA took a century (and a civil war) to work through the issues of federalism, with the advantage of a common language and similar culture. Germany much longer (with more wars). |
"Get your best negotiators onto the job, give them clear, unambiguous instructions, then full backing and firm direction throughout."
What are you basing that on? We have no evidence at all that would work. The EU might just as easily draw a line and say that's it.
You are assuming full incompetence on the UK side and leeway on the EU side - I don't think we have evidence for that - it's supposition. The evidence we have is that you can either stay or basically fully leave either with a rubbish deal or no deal. Given this you can't really leave unless you want to go it fully alone.
SB [Post edited 16 Nov 2018 8:36]
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:39 - Nov 16 with 1419 views | mr_bean |
The whole saga amusingly reminds me of the following line in a very well-known song by The Eagles:
"You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave". |  | | |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:51 - Nov 16 with 1410 views | Guthrum |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:33 - Nov 16 by StokieBlue |
"Get your best negotiators onto the job, give them clear, unambiguous instructions, then full backing and firm direction throughout."
What are you basing that on? We have no evidence at all that would work. The EU might just as easily draw a line and say that's it.
You are assuming full incompetence on the UK side and leeway on the EU side - I don't think we have evidence for that - it's supposition. The evidence we have is that you can either stay or basically fully leave either with a rubbish deal or no deal. Given this you can't really leave unless you want to go it fully alone.
SB [Post edited 16 Nov 2018 8:36]
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Other than "Brexit means Brexit", what kind of concrete manifesto or policy statement has been issued by the UK government (until just four months ago)? Virtually everything which has come out of the discussions - including this deal - has been shot down. Davis, as it turned out, rarely attended meetings. There has been no serious attempt to forge cross-party support, but instead a (feebly contested) General Election which put the PM in hock to the DUP and lost any leverage over her own backbenchers.
Precisely because it is an exceedingly difficult task there is little room for error, let alone incompetence. I am well aware of intransigence on the EU side.
Like you, I was (and still am) a Remainer, but I think this process has been shockingly mishandled from the UK side. We haven't given ourselves the best chance. [Post edited 16 Nov 2018 9:02]
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:56 - Nov 16 with 1399 views | Leaky |
No deal would better that! |  | | |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:13 - Nov 16 with 1373 views | Binner |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 08:56 - Nov 16 by Leaky |
No deal would better that! |
I've been absolutely pro-remain but your eloquence and strength of argument has caused me to completely change sides. |  |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:19 - Nov 16 with 1365 views | m14_blue |
The EU are protecting their own interests, it’s not particularly edifying but it was inevitable.
A successful, trouble-free, Brexit would pose an existential threat to the Union. That’s why it was so disingenuous and frustrating to see so many brexiteers talk about how easy the process would be (they need us more than them, German car industry etc).
The people preaching this are either complete idiots or deliberately dishonest. I suspect both.
Leave voters, and our county as a whole, have been sold a dud. | | | |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:20 - Nov 16 with 1361 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:19 - Nov 16 by m14_blue |
The EU are protecting their own interests, it’s not particularly edifying but it was inevitable.
A successful, trouble-free, Brexit would pose an existential threat to the Union. That’s why it was so disingenuous and frustrating to see so many brexiteers talk about how easy the process would be (they need us more than them, German car industry etc).
The people preaching this are either complete idiots or deliberately dishonest. I suspect both.
Leave voters, and our county as a whole, have been sold a dud. |
Pretty much supports the point that if you can't really leave with a good deal (for reasons cited) then you might as well go all-in and have a superpower based on an actual federalised state.
The middle-ground seems a bit pointless.
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:30 - Nov 16 with 1342 views | RamRob |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:20 - Nov 16 by StokieBlue |
Pretty much supports the point that if you can't really leave with a good deal (for reasons cited) then you might as well go all-in and have a superpower based on an actual federalised state.
The middle-ground seems a bit pointless.
SB |
I'd like to know what exactly is a good deal so we know how to compare the current one. (Which as I understand it is not final because the EU refuse to negotiate a future relationship any further until a withdrawal agreement is in place)
I suspect a 'good' deal for Boris is completely different to a Corbyn 'good' deal |  |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:33 - Nov 16 with 1333 views | StokieBlue |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:30 - Nov 16 by RamRob |
I'd like to know what exactly is a good deal so we know how to compare the current one. (Which as I understand it is not final because the EU refuse to negotiate a future relationship any further until a withdrawal agreement is in place)
I suspect a 'good' deal for Boris is completely different to a Corbyn 'good' deal |
Can you think of any deal which would be better than what we have as a member?
For instance, it's impossible (literally impossible by law) to be a member of the single market and have your own external trade deals.
We were told this would be part of the better deal but it's not actually achievable. I'm struggling to think what a good deal might actually be.
A good deal for JC would be basically what we have but with the ability to apply massive state funding through massive borrowing into the economy - something that's not allowed under current EU rules.
SB [Post edited 16 Nov 2018 9:34]
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:44 - Nov 16 with 1306 views | Darth_Koont |
No, we wanted to have our trade cake and eat it as well.
I'm just surprised that we have politicians who are so dense that they don't actually seem to know that the EU cares about the integrity of the single market and was never going to offer a deal allowing a non-member seamless access without also effectively guaranteeing the freedoms that underpin that market.
Politicians so thick and a media so passive that free trade was equated with having an open border for goods to pass through. It's not the same thing and there would still be admin hassles and extra documentation/processing needs that would adversely affect supply chain and how our ports operate.
So intellectually lazy or caught up in their London bubble that they couldn't get their heads around the notion that something had to give in Ireland over the land border and in doing so would jeopardize peace.
These aren't negotiating points for either side. This is just present-day reality in Europe where we need the benefits of a large trading bloc on the global scene. I don't see where the USE even comes into it. We seem to be one of the few countries that thinks the EU takes away our sovereign powers rather than actually helping us retain our national identity and gives us a stronger voice on a global level than we'd otherwise have.
Case in point: See how Ireland's national and sovereign interests are being protected when a threat comes at it from the outside. Our problem seems to be that we believe too much in our own exceptionalism and that we'd have a major voice on the world stage anyway but actually we'd be further back in the queue the moment we leave the EU, the EEA or the customs union — just as we'd have less security and military influence if we left NATO. |  |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:53 - Nov 16 with 1280 views | RamRob |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:33 - Nov 16 by StokieBlue |
Can you think of any deal which would be better than what we have as a member?
For instance, it's impossible (literally impossible by law) to be a member of the single market and have your own external trade deals.
We were told this would be part of the better deal but it's not actually achievable. I'm struggling to think what a good deal might actually be.
A good deal for JC would be basically what we have but with the ability to apply massive state funding through massive borrowing into the economy - something that's not allowed under current EU rules.
SB [Post edited 16 Nov 2018 9:34]
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In short no, i thought it would all come down to whether there could be a better deal with nations outside of the EU to replace it. But who knows when that could be achieved and who with.
It's like you say whatever deal they eventually hammer out will always be inferior to the current EU membership.
Any deal that keeps us in the single market should mean that Brexit is cancelled. What's the point in being part of it without having a say in how it works. | |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 10:18 - Nov 16 with 1238 views | Steve_M |
| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 09:53 - Nov 16 by RamRob |
In short no, i thought it would all come down to whether there could be a better deal with nations outside of the EU to replace it. But who knows when that could be achieved and who with.
It's like you say whatever deal they eventually hammer out will always be inferior to the current EU membership.
Any deal that keeps us in the single market should mean that Brexit is cancelled. What's the point in being part of it without having a say in how it works. |
If the UK thinks it has been bullied by the EU, wait until it tries its hand at trade negotiations with the US, China, Australia et al. That Germany trades far more with China than the UK from inside the EU suggests that it isn't the EU that has been holding this country back. | |
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| Is this a logical conclusion drawn from Brexit? on 11:32 - Nov 16 with 1189 views | No9 |
If the British public had taken any interest in EU elections and voted in people who not only wanted the EU to work but were of sufficient competence to draw a directional line where the UK's interests lay we may be in a different place now. However do not forget the UK already has a bespoke deal with the EU that many others in the 27 thought needed to be renegotiated anyway. many didn't like the way the UK wanted the block to be enlarged to take in Eastern countries and the single market was a UK idea etc. etc.
BUt face it we are where we are because of the tory right wing who have been anti Europe since De Gaul said Non!
History to those people is important they are still nationalistic colonials & it isn't goin gto change anytime soon. | | | |
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