Opposition Preview - Sunderland
Written by ad_wilkin on Thursday, 3rd Aug 2023 10:46

Town will kick-off their campaign against Sunderland at the Stadium of Light in a televised game on Sunday 6 August.

Managed by former Town captain Tony Mowbray, the Black Cats will be looking to respond to last season's disappointing play-off defeat to Luton with a strong start to the 2023/24 season.

Their pre-season consisted of wins against local sides South Shields and Gateshead followed by another three wins on their tour of the United States. These came against San Antonio, New Mexico United and North Carolina.

They got a draw against Spanish side Real Mallorca in their only friendly at home last Saturday and are playing their last pre-season game against Hartlepool tonight [Tuesday]. With it being so close to the start of the season it remains to be seen whether that will be a full-strength squad. Here I’ll break down what Town can expect to face in their first game back in the second tier.

Over the last 20 games the most common formation that Sunderland lined up in was a 4-2-3-1 with mixed success. Across the season they had one of the Championship's lowest average ages at 24 (based on all players with Championship minutes). They were rewarded for giving youth a chance and are building a team not just for the current season but seasons beyond.

Whilst they were excellent going forward, there are some defensive frailties at the back. Let’s run through the squad.

Goalkeeper

Anthony Paterson was Sunderland’s undisputed number one in the 2022/23 season playing every minute of every Championship game, keeping 14 clean sheets in the process. Despite that, he conceded the 11th most goals per game. Part of this was down to the fact that Sunderland conceded four or more goals on three occasions.

The 23-year-old is homegrown and has been their number one goalkeeper for the best part of two seasons now. With last season's number two Alex Bass loaned out to AFC Wimbledon, it means that Paterson is currently the only senior goalkeeper in the squad with 16-year-old prospect Matthew Young getting minutes in their pre-season tour of the USA.

Central Defence

The Sunderland defence is a mixture of youth, experience and versatility. Due to injuries a combination of seven players shared the minutes across the back four.

Danny Batth played the most minutes and is usually the deepest of the defence. The experienced 32-year-old has 300 Championship appearances to his name across spells at Wolves, Stoke and Sunderland.

Sharing the other centre-back role across the season were mainly Luke O’Nien and Daniel Ballard. O’Nien has been at Sunderland since July 2018 and was a big part of Sunderland’s promotion from League One. His role has changed over the years slowly moving from central midfield to defensive midfield to now being a comfortable centre-half which is proved by the fact that 10 of Sunderland’s 14 clean sheets came with O’Nien on the pitch.

Ballard by contrast was a new arrival in July 2022. Having come through Arsenal’s academy he signed for Sunderland for £2.3 million and started the season in the team before fracturing his foot in Sunderland's third match of the season. Upon returning from injury, he immediately reclaimed his place in the team before a second injury (this time hamstring) ended his season early. Ballard has returned and played a part in pre-season so he should be fit to start this one.

The summer transfer window has seen another couple of promising youngsters added into that mix in the shape of Dutchman Jenson Seelt and Aussie Nectarios Triantis. Twenty-year-old Seelt has just signed from PSV for a fee of £2 million despite having only featured for their second team Jong PSV and is another sign of Sunderland investing in the future.

Triantis has come in for £350,000 from Central Coast Mariners and is also only 20. Whether either of them have impressed enough in pre-season to warrant a place in the side remains to be seen. It’s more likely that one or both of them will be trialed against in their League Cup match against Crewe.

Full-Backs

Next I want to move on to right back Trai Hume, who at just 21 years of age is a fully fledged Northern Ireland international playing in both of their recent European Championship qualifying matches.

As part of his right-back role with Sunderland he plays high and wide with at least 30 per cent of his heat map in the opposition half last season. Hume will have a key battle with Leif Davis down that side of the pitch which could prove decisive.

As you can see from the graphic below, both players are fairly evenly matched with Hume coming out on top on both shooting and most importantly dribbling stats (this will be a theme as we move further up the pitch). However, Davis has a far superior number of assists and key passes showing that in his role he will touch the ball less but ends up receiving it more in crucial areas where the quality of his delivery comes into play.

With Hume playing so high and wide the left-back slot was slightly narrow and could sometimes slot in to make part of a back three. Think of Town's back five but inverted.

Sharing that position, mainly due the pair suffering injuries, were Dennis Cirkin and Aji Alese, with Lydon Gooch also providing versatile left and right-back cover where needed.

Gooch has been with Sunderland his whole career and that versatility makes him an important squad player but it’s unlikely he’ll be a starter in the match against Town.

The only natural left-footed left player of the three is Cirkin, which means he’s the most natural fit to start there against Ipswich. The Irishman made 28 appearances last season and chipped in with a healthy looking five goals, more than the rest of Sunderland's defenders (including Gooch) combined.

Central Midfield

Sunderland's main midfield pairing last season was Dan Neil and Corry Evans. At 32 Evans is the older statesman in a very young Sunderland squad and also club captain.

Evans is very much a defensive-minded player who sits and breaks up play. This is shown by his high tackling numbers and low shot numbers. He only had 17 shots in total last season. His job is very much to win the ball back and give it to those around him.

The Northern Irish international suffered a cruciate ligament injury that ended his season in February and hasn’t feature in pre-season so far and will leave the midfield pairing facing the Blues looking rather inexperienced.

In the other role was 21-year-old Neil. Think Cameron Humphreys but a couple of years on. The left-footer is a Sunderland youth product with two full seasons (one League One and one Championship) now under his belt. Unlike Humphreys, however, he’s more of a box-to-box midfielder who excels in winning duels.

It is the three players in front of him in Sunderland's line-up where the creativity comes from.

Should Evans not recover which seems probable at the moment, then the most likely back-up is Pierre Ekwah. The 21-year-old Frenchman was signed from West Ham in January 2023 and partnered Neil in the run-in and the two play-off games against Luton in what was his first taste of senior football.

Ekwah had a hit and miss start when he first came into the team but has since grown in confidence with appearances and brings the ability to make mazy runs from midfield that draw defenders in.

The injury to Evans there could also give an opportunity to Jay Matete to earn a place in the side. The 22-year-old, who was signed from Fleetwood in January 2021, comes back to the Black Cats following a second half of the season loan spell with Plymouth Argyle.

Matete only made eight starts for the Pilgrims and didn’t excel, so is probably just a cover option for now.

Attacking Midfield

This is Sunderland's main area of threat and the biggest reason for their play-off push. The dribbling ability of Patrick Roberts, Amad Diallo and Jack Clarke proved too much for a lot of teams. All three of that triumvirate were within the top ten of Championship dribblers as can be seen below.

That dribbling also came with results with the three notching up 27 goals and 21 assists between them. With Diallo returning to Manchester United after what has widely been regarded as an excellent loan spell, Sunderland have turned to Jobe Bellingham to plug the gap.

The highly rated 17-year-old had only made five Championship starts for Birmingham before Sunderland signed him for £1.75 million, but the hope will be that he fulfils his promise to the same level of his older brother Jude. I expect him to slot into the middle of the three with Roberts on the right and Clarke on the left against Town.

If Bellingham isn’t considered ready to go right away or is dropped deeper into the eight role, then the other options are experienced campaigner Alex Pritchard or 16-year-old starlet Chris Rigg.

Former Canary Pritchard started the season in the team as the number 10 last season before being displaced by Diallo but still managed 28 starts in addition to appearances off the bench. His versatility is a big asset and he managed four goals and six assists.

The curve-ball option would be Rigg. At only 16, the youngster is already showing his promise and has put in some impressive pre-season performances for Sunderland, getting on the scoresheet twice. He may not start but could see minutes off the bench against the Super Blues, with Sunderland fans hopeful that he could be their next breakout star.

With pre-season drawing to a close Sunderland added to these options even more with the signing of free agent Bradley Dack, who left Blackburn in May. Now 28, Dack has struggled to recapture the form of 2017-19 since recovering from a cruciate ligament injury. Last season was his first full without being injured since then so reliability could be an issue. However, he did net four goals in 13 starts and 14 sub appearances as his game time was managed and provides another experienced head in that area.

Those are the other options for the number 10 but Sunderland also have a couple of other young talents in the wide areas who will be looking to make an impact off the bench.

Jewison Bennette is one of Costa Rica’s next generation of talents and will be looking for more game time this season. He featured 15 times for Sunderland last season with every single one of those appearances coming from the bench with his average time on the pitch 17 minutes. With Ross Stewart injured, he has been used as a striker in pre-season, but his best position is out on the wings.

In a very similar position to Bennete is Isaac Lihadji. A January signing from Lille, the 21-year-old Frenchman was a victim of the form of Clarke, Diallo and Roberts making only six appearances all from the bench. Lihadji does provide a different option to Roberts with his ability to cut inside from the right onto his favoured left foot and without Diallo around this season will be hoping to get more game time.

Striker

Perhaps the biggest unknown will be who will start up front for the Black Cats. Ross Stewart, Ellis Simms (loan) and Joe Gelhardt (loan) shared the minutes across last season.

Stewart was prolific when fit, averaging 0.86 goals a game, the highest in the league, but suffered two major injuries (hamstring and achilles, which kept him out for over half the season.

The Scotland international won't recover in time for the start of the season as he’s not expected to be back until October and even if he did, he’s currently involved in a contract stalemate with the club. Whether this results in them attempting to get some money for him before the window closes remains to be seen.

Stewart's absence means Sunderland’s continued investment in youth will likely see Luis Hemir Semedo, signed this summer from Benfica, starting the season as the number nine. Semedo is another youngster with high potential but little experience, having only featured for the Benfica B team last season.

Despite this he has made an impressive start to Sunderland's pre-season. The Portuguese U20 international is in a similar mould to Stewart, big and strong, able to hold the ball up and also make runs in behind. He’s also netted twice so far in pre-season.

Also coming in to strengthen the Black Cats' frontline is 18-year-old Spaniard Eliezer Mayenda from Sochaux. This one is a bit leftfield as he only made one start for the French side in Ligue 2 last season, although he did come off the bench a fair bit. Sunderland are building a young squad but with a full pre-season under his belt it’ll probably be Hemir who starts against Town.

Predicted Line-Ups

Take this with a pinch of salt as my friendly line-up guessing was less than 50 per cent correct. For Town, providing he recovers from his knock to his foot Walton will start in goal.

With Harry Clarke suspended and suffering from an injury of his own, Dom Ball has excelled in pre-season but it’s Donacien who is likely to start in the right-back/right centre-back role. I think even if Clarke was available Donacien would have been picked anyway with his one-on-one defending ability being crucial to shackling Sunderland's key man Jack Clarke.

With George Edmundson still looking a bit rusty in pre-season and no new signing in this area yet, I think Luke Woolfenden and Cameron Burgess will continue their partnership from last year and Leif Davis is an almost certain starter at left-back.

I’ve gone for Massimo Luongo partnering Sam Morsy in midfield. Jack Taylor has looked like he's still getting up to speed a bit in pre-season so I think it will be the duo who ended last season in the middle for this one.

Wes Burns, Conor Chaplin and Nathan Broadhead are Town’s best front three and unless there’s injuries they should start. Up top, I think this game favours Hirst’s attributes and there are no questions about his sharpness as he scored three in pre-season

Omari Hutchinson, Marcus Harness and Freddie Ladapo could all be important players off the bench for this one.

For Sunderland I've gone for Paterson in goal as he’s the only senior goalkeeper in the squad. A back four off Hume, Ballard, Batth and Cirkin mixes youth and experience and with Evans injured, it should be the midfield of Ekwah and Neil that finished last season in the middle.

Much like Town, the Sunderland wide players of Clarke and Roberts pick themselves and I've gone for Bellingham over Pritchard or Dack down the middle.

Up top, with Stewart injured and Mayenda having only joined at the end of pre-season, Hemir should be leading the line.

The key battles in this one will likely be down both wings. Donacien will need to be at his best to keep Jack Clarke quiet and try and stop him cutting onto his right foot, whilst whoever wins the wing-back battle out of Hume and Davis will be able to get their advanced player (Broadhead or Roberts) more space to work.

Bellingham/Pritchard and Chaplin should also have a bit of space to work in with the physical strikers of both sides occupying the opposition centre halves.

Score Prediction – Tough game away from home against one of the league's better sides last year. They are slightly hampered by injuries so this could be a good time to play them. I’m going for a 2-2 draw.

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