Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Forum
Reply
EADT reports 'supercomputer' prediction
at 00:09 29 Jul 2022

First the caveat - making predictions before a ball is even kicked is unlikely to produce accurate results.
In previous seasons, I started with general historical data, with % home wins, % away wins and how many wins/draws/losses are required to make the play offs. This always shows a significant home advantage. It also shows that even the top teams WILL lose during the season. The champions need to reach 95 points (average), which means they need to obtain 57points at home and 38points away. For play offs 78 points (H-47, A31). I would then rank the teams 1 to 24 and speculate whether Ipswich were over/under performing.
This year, I used the information learned, but the ranking was based on statistical evidence - even though I know this will be flawed!
The details I used
Goal scoring ability - with some adjustment for newly promoted teams and those relegated. (Ipswich ranked 8th :( )
Goals conceded - again with adjustments (Ipswich ranked 2nd)
Goal difference - this creates a completely different data set and helps to get a good average. (Ipswich rank 5th)
Pre-season betting - this gives an indication of the level of confidence in the clubs ability to win. Teams with larger fanbases rank better than those with smaller followings. Equally, I look at betting on Relegation as this is less likely to be biased.
The average, gave me a ranking order - which was then added into the data - which in turn changed the order slightly.
Based on these figures I was able to calculate a score for each fixture (with advantage to the home side, disadvantage to the away team).
The difference between the two figures determines the result. At this stage that is win/lose by 1 goal, or 2, or 3 or even 4 goals.
To run the simulation I also included a random element that effectively means that the team can do up to 50% better or worse than the ranking score dictates.

Of course as soon as the first goal is scored the prediction would change - especially when the predicted result does not match the actual result. Once the season starts other variables can be used, which will also change the prediction.
Forum
Reply
EADT reports 'supercomputer' prediction
at 00:29 28 Jul 2022

This is the sort of thing I like! Every year I try and predict the outcomes for Ipswich and every year it comes out as a non-descript, mid table season. but this year is different we are ranked at No2, and the stats back it up!

So I powered up my own supercomputer... In most simulations Ipswich finish third, behind MK Dons. I have tried to not show too much bias towards Ipswich. This is just for fun and I fully expect to be 1000000% wrong. Let's face it - if we could predict a whole season of football results, we'd all be millionaires.

There are a number of factors in pre-season that we do not know about. There is always that one team that does better than expected, others that fail to do as well as expected, those last minutes equalisers and shock defeats - as well as psychological effects of winning (or losing) 5 games in a row.

Surprisingly for Ipswich, our first dropped points could be at Forest Green and again at Shrewsbury - this could make our league position look a bit shaky at the end of August.

The teams to watch are Derby - personally, I think they will struggle to start with.
Sheffield Wednesday - early indications show they will win this league.
MK Dons - Prolific goal scorers and best defence/goal difference last season and have been busy bolstering their squad.
Portsmouth, Bolton, Peterborough, Wycombe and Oxford will all be in the mix next April/May
Not convinced that Barnsley will do as well as the article suggests.
I am also fairly sure that the bottom clubs will not reach 50 points as statistically they are a long way off the pace.

This is my (best case) final table.



More likely to be Sheffield Wednesday top with anyone of the next four in second. It is going to be tight and may go to the last game of the season.



Based on a 500 run simulation - with a random element - I rank the teams like this;

Forum
Reply
Non footie sorry but thought I’d get most of you on here
at 21:49 8 Jan 2019

This is a hoax - it was also a hoax last year when published with the same warning - this one has been going around for a while now, but has gone viral in the last couple of days - it is still a hoax!

That said, the maximum speed limit on motorways is 70mph and should always be adhered to - which I do (of course).

Seriously though, the M25 already has variable speed limits and speed cameras, which would automatically process penalty notices, but these are generally set at 10%+ over the speed limit. There is no such thing as an automatic instant ban!
Forum
Reply
Any links to highlights with all three town goals?
at 20:42 17 Apr 2017

Please log in to use all the site's facilities

SteveH


Site Scores

Forum Votes: 0
Comment Votes: 0
Prediction League: 0
TOTAL: 0
About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© TWTD 1995-2024