As you know, before the election I claimed that I didn’t recognise the forthcoming result because I argued it was undemocratic. I congratulate the Conservatives on their victory, it is a real coup! Jokes aside, if you are a Lib Dem supporter or a Labour supporter, you only have your own party to blame.
Labour governed from 1997-2010 and decided not to bring in a form of proportional representation. The Liberal Democrats decided that a 5-year coalition without a referendum on proportional representation was worthwhile.
Moreover, the parties read the election landscape incorrectly and were tactically naive. I was told that political parties are like buses - You get on the bus that takes you closer to home. So was it worth agreeing to vote on a new bus route, when we had one two years earlier? There was massive anti-Corbyn sentiment prior to the election that was obviously going to end in tears.
Conservative Majority? Like most of you I woke up to the news that the conservatives had won a landslide victory (I no longer do all-nighters watching it). The initial results looked impressive - 365 seats - a sizeable majority even before SF tell the UK parliament to do one.
I was rather less impressed when I saw their vote share increased from 42.3% to 43.6%. Even in a month of Sundays a 1.3% increase transitioning into a 47 seat increase is unbelievable. That is before we even point out that 43.6% is not a majority.
If a child told me 43.6% was a majority, I’d question the education system. The fact that adults swallow this rubbish is beyond me. It is theft. The majority that is claimed is stolen. But stolen from who?
Liberal Democrats have a bad night? And other misrepresentations. It was claimed that the Liberal Democrats had a “bad night”. Afterall their leader lost their seat. But as much as the board takes its collective joy from Bluefish’s suffering, the election system stole his vote. It decided that Bluefish’s votes was not worth the same as others.
The Liberal Democrats increased their vote share by 4.2%. That’s an increase of over 3 times the Conservatives. What did the Liberal Democrats extra 1,324,562 voters get as a reward for casting their vote? -1 seat. This was a misrepresentation of -65 seats, which was an increase of misrepresentation from their -36 seats in 2017.
The environmental movement increased their vote share, but still only received 1 of their 18 seats. The Brexit Party got 642,323 votes and no seats, which was a misrepresentation of -13.
A mandate for independence? Another party claiming they had a mandate from the people was the SNP. With 1.2m votes, they had a misrepresentation on a UK level of 22 and on a Scottish level of 21. With 45% of the Scottish vote they claimed to have a mandate to have a second referendum. Bizzare to say the least.
North of the border the conservatives fell victim to the system, losing 9 seats. This also highlights how bad the misrepresentation was in England. Labour also lost 10 seats they deserved here and the LD 2.
A broken system With 47million registered voters, one third of voters thought the democratic system wasn’t worth their time. You can tell from my contemptuous tone, that I was one of them.
and I do not recognise the forthcoming election results. They are rigged in favour of increasing the majority's share over the minority.
Last election it took roughly 40k people to vote in one conservative MP. Whereas it took almost 200k to vote in a Liberal democrat MP, 550k to vote in a Green MP and UKIP didn't get a single seat with 600k votes.
Based on a 650 seater house, the Conservatives got 42 MPs more than the population wanted. Labour got 2 MPs more than they deserved. Liberal Democrats got 36 less than they should have, Greens got 10 less than they should have and UKIP should have had 12.
This will be repeated time and again because the main benefactors each time don't want a democratic system. They want the system that maximises their position.
Country % Isle of Man 0.00 Hungary 9.0 Montenegro 9.00 Bosnia and Herzegovina 10.00 Bulgaria 10.00 Kosovo 10.00 Macedonia 10.00 Moldova 12.00 Cyprus 12.50 Ireland 12.50 Liechtenstein 12.50 Albania 15.00 Lithuania 15.00 Serbia 15.00 Romania 16.00 Belarus 18.00 Croatia 18.00 Switzerland 18.00 Ukraine 18.00 Czech Republic 19.00 Poland 19.00 Slovenia 19.00 United Kingdom 19.00 Estonia 20.00 Finland 20.00 Iceland 20.00 Latvia 20.00 Russia 20.00 Portugal 21.00 Slovakia 21.00 European Union 21.30 Sweden 21.40 Denmark 22.00 Norway 22.00 Turkey 22.00 Euro area 23.30 Italy 24.00 Austria 25.00 Netherlands 25.00 Spain 25.00 Luxembourg 27.08 Greece 28.00 Belgium 29.00 Germany 30.00 France 31.00 Malta 35.00
Sorry if this has been posted before. My colleagues were banging on about how high corporation tax is.
1. It is evidently comparatively low. 2. Raising it to 26% is a bizarre number to choose, as it puts us above countries like the Netherlands that we compete with. 3. Somewhere between 21-23% seems fair
Side note: If companies like Starbucks and Amazon don't pay tax, then they can do one. We don't need them. Other companies will take their place as other companies will want to make the clear profit available in that space.
If anything, these companies should pay higher tax than smaller companies, in the same way higher earners should. A small start-up is more vulnerable than a company like Starbucks.
Wycombe Peterborough's attack is too good for this division. Some how Wycombe score one penalty and came away with a 3-3 draw. I see Akinfenwa was given one, but looked like two OGs to me. Wycombe didn't look bad in defence, Peterborough just have good strikers.
Fleetwood Ipswich looked to be the better team in the highlights with a couple of nice moves. Jackson's control and ball through to Norwood was great. Norwood needs to find a bit more confidence in front of goal. Maybe he's playing within himself with the injury. Fleetwood didn't seem up to much. A couple of half chances. Should have been 2-0 with the bad penalty miss
Coventry City Shocking defending. Zero communication. If you watched that game in isolation, you expect them to be in the bottom six. It was really was that dreadful.
Blackpool Play on Monday
Sunderland Lincoln were by far the better team. Big mistakes at the back. Should have been 4-0 from the highlights. A missed penalty and a certain goal denied by Lincoln's own player blocking the shot
I was really surprised at how bad the teams were at the back.
Introduction Par was set at five points from one win and two draws. We managed to get a haul of seven points, which means we were 2 under par. Google promises me that this is an Eagle.
Before we get into the Round Three overview. Let’s take a moment to acknowledge an important fact. 20% of the season is done. Done and never to be seen again. Whatever Doris Day has in store for us, we’ve done well up until now.
We are undefeated. We’ve had six clean sheets. Four of which were away from home. We have conceded the least goals in the division. Scored the fourth most. We have the best away form. The best “last 8” form and are top of the table.
On a side note, if you have no clue what this post is about, please go down to the bottom to catch-up on how the projections (not predictions) are made.
Round Three: Eagle First up was Doncaster, who at the time were undefeated. They are are currently seventh, which is where they are projected to finish. But with Lincoln capitulating in the wake of the Cowley brothers departing on the 9th September, Portsmouth sitting in 20th and Rotherham not up to much, don’t be surprised if they are in the play-offs or better.
They have a tidy defence, which is the second best in the league, a good work ethic and the majority of their games have been against top half teams. It should be no surprise that when they are on it they can shut out and beat teams like Peterborough, as they did on Saturday.
Where they may struggle this season, relatively speaking, is in attack. At 1.38 goals per game, they sit below the league average of 1.40. When pushing for a top two spot, they may fall short for this reason.
We were projected to draw against Doncaster and we did. It was a decent result.
Next up were two away games. First we took 3,360 fans to Milton Keynes on a Tuesday night. If you haven’t seen the posts floating around, this was one less than the rest of the away support for the entire league. Let that sink in a moment. That is awesome. The videos were awesome. The result? Also awesome.
This was forecasted as a draw. So we really did steal two points here to move onto 5 under par. Golf refuses to validate any score lower than three-under par with a birds' names. It’s a little inconvenient, but they probably didn’t have this blog in mind when they started it.
Forecasts always get a hiding from reality, which is always more bizarre than projective measures. When we were forecasted to draw against Milton Keynes, the simple calculations didn’t take into account that Milton Keynes don’t do draws. Nine games, no draws. So it is somewhat fortuitous that we came away with a win and not a loss I suppose.
Although that would require us conceding, which after five clean sheets in a row is also looking increasingly unlikely. Another bizarre stat that crops up with Milton Keynes is that they have played the most home games in the division (six). With them sitting 15th in the League, I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up placing well below their 11th place forecast.
Gillingham were four games unbeaten before they played us. Home games also accounted for 70% of Gillingham's total points and 71% of the goals they have scored so far this season. This includes a 2-0 win against third place Wycombe. So they were in good form, particularly at home and were probably hopeful we would underestimate them so they could walk away with a draw or sneak a win.
Gillingham were always going to be a threat in this game, with a 1.56 goals per game (inclusive of our result) this puts them well above the aforementioned 1.40 league average. Even though we kept a clean sheet against them, they remain the league’s joint seventh highest scorers.
Another great following, filling out all of the 2,000 seats in the away section. Holy, keen to boost my statistics count, said he was at Gillingham for 2.5 years and it is only the second time he has seen the away end full.
Round FIve Projections: Seven Points, 2 wins, 1 draw Okay, okay, okay. I know. This is definitely harder on paper than on the forecast. This may be where we relinquish some of our hard earned five-under par. Either way, we love to assign fault on TWTD and I can categorically lay the blame at the bookies feet. They hopelessly forecasted that Wycombe would get relegated in 22nd place. They had the same odds as Tranmere and were only below them due to alphabetical descrimination.
We can’t just change things around to suit us at this stage. If I decide to change things around it will be halfway through the season, when we have played 22 games, switching to a fixed league table standing.
Tranmere were predicted to finished 21st and are currently 18th. After a generally poor start, they only have one loss in five. A draw against Peterborough and a win against Burton should give them the confidence that they can finish above Southend, Wimbledon and Bolton.
Tranmere got promoted last season, with our new striker James Norwood being a key reason for that. We are already seeing why he was so successful last season and by his accounts can do much better.
Tranmere are not really having fun on the road though. Only 11% of their points and 7% of their goals have come away from home.
Fleetwood, who sit in fourth place, are outrageous when it comes to goals. Their matches average 3.33 goals per game (GPG), which is the joint third highest. The difference to a team like Peterborough and Tranmere (also 3.33 GPG) is that they score and concede rather than score or concede.
Whilst Peterborough are joint second lowest when it comes to both teams scoring (33% BTS),. Fleetwood are joint third highest with 78% BTS.
100% of their matches have had 2+ goals per game and that is in stark contrast to us. Our matches have the joint second lowest goals per game. Even with a 5-0 win against Bolton and a 3-0 win against Shrewsbury, this shouldn’t be too surprising, given our six clean sheets.
When two contrasting playing styles come together, it is always interesting to see which one prevails. Personally I can see us shutting them out, as they don’t seem to travel too well. So far they have only amassed four points from a possible 12 on the road. Note they scored eight goals in these games, but conceded nine.
Onto Wycombe. When we last spoke, Wycombe were 4 over par. This meant that despite sitting in 5th place, they were actually doing worse than a projected top 2 side and despite a decent set of results, I really expected them to fall away.
Instead it is Lincoln who have really fallen apart. Wycombe’s last 6 form is eighth, compare to Lincoln who are now 21st in the form table. Over the past six games Wycombe have won three, drawn two and lost one. They have scored nine and conceded seven. This is compared to our W5, D1, L0, F12 an A1.
Wycombe’s sole loss this season has come Gillingham. Looking at their fixtures, the jury is still out on whether they have actually been playing like a top six side, or whether they are just playing well against poorer opposition. Over the next six games they play Rochdale, Peterborough, Ipswich, Sunderland, Blackpool and Rotherham. This horrible set of fixtures highlights that they have had some easier games and it will really show us if they are here to stay.
To highlight where I sit on this, they have played four of the bottom five at home, and fifth team away. They have only played three of the top 10 and have played one more game than Ipswich, Coventry, Fleetwood and Sunderland. They have played two more than Doncaster in seventh.
With this in mind, the seven point par may be more realistic than first thought.
Top Seven Table Team, Points, Par Ipswich, 21, -5 Coventry City, 19, +1 Wycombe, 19, +5 Fleetwood, 17, +2 Sunderland, 16, 0 Blackpool, 16, +8 Doncaster, 15, 0
To recap, the higher the minus figure, the better you are doing. In a 24 team division division, par would be 90 points. So at the moment Ipswich are on course to get 95 points (89 when we factor out Bury).
Ipswich are the only team in the Top Seven to remain under par. This suggests we are currently on course to win the league. But bear in mind that 80% of the season is still to play for, so let’s not go counting chickens just yet.
Second place is projected to be Doncaster or Sunderland. Sunderland’s form is dubious though. A -3 picked up against Portsmouth is really helping to hide some horrible results.With Doncaster, it underlines what I said about lower league opposition and their firepower.
I don’t know enough about Doncaster. I don’t know if they need to bring in a striker or a creative player for their strikers. But against the four best teams they have played they are -7 and against the bottom four teams their have played they are +7. It is a massive swing. If they can pick up someone to break down these lower ranked teams, they can really make the top two a realistic target.
Wycombe and Blackpool are really highlighting the fortuitous fixtures they have had in this table.
Side Note For Newcomers Round 1: Establishes why I did this, why 90 points is the target, how I have modelled the fixtures and what par is based on. There are also two nice and related videos in response. - www.twtd.co.uk/forum/464305/round-one-albatross/#4
Round 2: A lot of people didn’t like that par was set at nine points for round two, so further explanation was given. There are a lot of good questions that would potentially make a nice FAQ, given a bit more commitment on my side.
Pointofblue really draws out that projections aren’t connected. So when we played Sunderland we were both projected to lose. The fact that we drew meant we both got -1. This is because we are projecting 90 points for each team, not simulating a league. - www.twtd.co.uk/forum/465308/round-two-par/#16
Recap: Round One - Albatross We had established a few things last time.
First, par was established from pre-season betting odds. Each team is ranked and weighted according to this.
Second, Barnsley had been used as a marker, as they had achieved 91 points to gain automatic promotion. No team in the last five seasons had finished below second, if they achieved 90 points. I roughly used their home and away form to get an idea of what an expected result is against each team.
Third, Victory against Burton and 2 draws against promotion rivals Sunderland and Peterborough had given us five points. We were projected to get one point. This put us in a healthy position of being four under par.
Since then Bury have been expelled from the league. I’m just going to continue with 84 points as the target, as they 24th in the pre-season betting table.
Round Two: Par We had a target of nine points from these three fixtures and we got nine. It was the first time we won three in a row since the start of the 2017–18 season! I freely admitted that I was nervous about this and our first game seemed to validate those nerves.
We played Wimbledon, who are now on two points from six games, but they have had some tricky fixtures themselves. If they were going for automatic promotion they would have been par 8, compared to our par 10. They certainly haven’t embarrassed themselves, so may be a game that one of the top teams trip up on.
Wimbledon took the lead in that game, heading into halftime with three points. It gave us a sense of character in the team now. Not cursing our luck, or poor form, the players equalised with 10mins to go and then took it to the wire, getting a last minute winner.
A very easy game followed, as we crushed Bolton 5-0 away from home. The only time the result looked in doubt was when their takeover bidding seemingly fell through.
One of the great things to come out of the game was our strikers scoring. Norwodd and Jackson both continued their good form and put another two past Shrewsbury today.
Shresbury had already proven tough fixture for our promotion rivals Portsmouth, beating them 1-0 on the opening day of the season. So, as much as it was a par win, no game is a foregone conclusion and it was impressive that we effectively ended they game in the first 10 minutes.
Overall you can’t ask too much more from the games. Three games, ten goals scored and only one conceded. Performances can improve and that is exciting, given the results we are getting.
We remain four under par going into our next three games.
Round Three Projection: 1 Win, 2 Draws With Rochdale called off, we may lose our top spot. Our next three games become Doncaster (H), MK Dons (A) and Gillingham (A). On paper, I thought they would be similar to our last three. But actually we are playing a different calibre of opposition, so we do need to be a little more measured.
Doncaster are 7th favourites, so expect them to be pushing for a play-off spot by the end of the season. I believe they have gone slightly under the radar as whilst they are 11th and only on 8 points. But this is because they have only played four games. They actually already have some pretty respectable results, such as beating Lincoln (sixth favourites) 3-2.
We are expected to draw at home with Doncaster, which should be a big motivation to get another couple of points in the bag. Doncaster may still feel a little untested away from home, as they have only played one of their four games away so far. Portman Road will hopefully prove overwhelming at this stage of the season.
Unsurprisingly, having played 4 games, Doncaster feature high on the defensive league and low on the attacking league. It is hard to grasp what they will bring.
MK Dons away is also a projected draw. However, they are definitely vulnerable in defence. We should be looking to take the game to them. The have conceded 10 goals from five games and sit fourth from bottom in the defensive league.
This isn’t quite Bolton standards (average three per game), but it is something we would want to take advantage of. With that being said, it is still a projected draw, so we need to bring our A-Game, if we want to grab an extra 2 points.
I have memories of travelling to Gillingham and standing in their away end, which seemed to be made up entirely of scaffolding. We came away with three points then and we are pojected to win here too. Gillingham are in the group of struggling but safe.
Expect them to put men behind the ball. They are more resilient than MK Dons and may prove more of a challenge to break down. Their only win so far this season was a 5-0 win at home to Bolton. We all know how dreadful they were and I imagine the home game could be one of our biggest ever wins, unless they strengthen.
They may be a bit nervous and prone to mistakes, if they don’t put a win on the table before we play them.
The Ipswich fan in me is backing us to get three wins, but this is why we are doing this. To keep ourselves grounded.
Top Six Table The Top Six Table is displayed to give a more authentic look at how our current rivals are doing. The top six are obviously doing really well, right in the mix for promotion. But we want to know who has had the most difficult games, so we know who is likely to stay around and who is likely to fall away.
The bigger the under par number, the better it is for that club. The bigger the over par score, the more likely they are to fall away.
Ipswich, 14 pts, 4 under par Lincoln , 12pts, 3 under par Blackpool, 12pts, 3 over par Coventry City, 12pts, par Wycombe, 12pts, 4 over par Sunderland, 11pts, 3 under par
Whilst Wycombe had a great start, they have played pretty easy sides. This is great for them, as they are picking up points, but until they play better teams, we shouldn’t expect them to stick around.
Licoln, like ourselves, are doing great Despite losing twice, they are a full win ahead of their projection.
Despite getting absolutely tanked 3-0 by Peterborough today, Sunderland were projected to lose that game and are 3 under par. The have played us, Portsmouth and Peterborough in their first three games and this was a tough draw.
Summary August is over. We are undefeated. We are top of the league. We are 4 points ahead of a projected 2nd place finish. Enjoy it!!