Forum | First constituency result on Thursday by StokieBlue

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First constituency result on Thursday 11:22 - Dec 9 with 282 views

So Houghton and Sunderland South are usually the first constituency to declare (or within the first 2) and usually you can’t read anything into the overall result based on this but this time it’s quite an interesting one given the various demographics and stats:

https://democraticdashboard.com/constituency/houghton-and-sunderland-south

2017 Election:

Labour — 60% share
Tories — 30% share

EU Referendum:

Leave — 62.4%
Remain — 37.6%

Electorial Calculus has Labour winning but with a reduced share of the vote (45%) and Tories increasing their share (33%). They predict the Lib Dems will have an increase from 2% to 8% which doesn’t seem very logical given the leave position.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Houghton%20and%2

For a change the first constituency announced might be quite interesting. It might even give some indicators for the rest of the night.

SB

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