| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun 21:12 - Jun 6 with 2291 views | gtsb1966 |
Is it right to assume that America and Europe have armed Ukraine to the teeth and that the Ukraine reports of needing more weapons was a bluff? |  | | |  |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 21:35 - Jun 6 with 2189 views | giant_stow |
Not sure that is a safe assumption personally, although there are many better read people on this topic.
I think it may just be the case that the Western gear is much better than the Russiab stuff with each machine able to do lots of damage, compared to its Russian equivalent.
Plus I think it would be quite hard to hide secret shipments of weapons, as the numbers every country had seems to be relatively well known, perhaps owing to budgetary requirements. Of course, saying that that could just be extreme naivety too.
I also saw one article make the point that Ukraine has acquired lots of Russian equipment which has often been dumped or captured, so although they're now largely dependant on Western ammunition, they have built up their own stocks of tanks etc too.
Anyway, I'll let the adults answer you now! |  |
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| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 10:12 - Jun 7 with 1874 views | ElephantintheRoom |
No - whilst the West is happy to fight Putin to the last Ukranian the problem with weapons is that like soldiers they need replacing. |  |
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| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 10:37 - Jun 7 with 1830 views | Lord_Lucan |
The problem of course is that now we have put war crimes sh1t on Putin he has nowhere to go.
Typical stupid non thinking politics.
Putin needs an exit plan or we could screwed.
And I mean really screwed baby. |  |
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| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 10:43 - Jun 7 with 1821 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
The dam being blown up changes everything. Ukraine has been waiting for dry ground so that the new tanks (current generation Lepard from Germany, Abrams from USA and Challenger from UK) can be at their most effective, but massive flooding throughout the frontline (the Dnipro river is the frontline across a large part of the front) will require a rethink.
Some Ukrainian Army forces have been diverted to humanitarian rescue roles. Tens of thousands of people are newly displaced, in a country which has dispersed millions of refugees already. Does Ukraine have the capacity to cope with a vast movement of vulnerable people from the frontline areas, and to absord them elsewhere? The scale of the emergency response needed can't be underestimated.
If there was no war and the dam had failed with a similar outcome then it would be one of Europe's biggest ever disasters.
On your point about weapons: the USA is the biggest donor of Military Aid to Ukraine. This all has to come out of Government budgets. The President proposes the budget but both houses of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) have to pass it. Biden is a Democrat, and they control the Senate, but the Republicans have the majority in the House of Representatives.
This means that lots of late night deals are done with compromises made in order to get agreement on the Budget. If no agreement is made then potentially Non-Essential Government enters a shutdown.
The Budget was finally agreed in the past couple of weeks.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/27/statemen
So before that Zelensky did a lot of media aimed at US Public Opinion, talking about how important the US support is, and the difference that additional, more recent, weapons, could make. The Budget has now passed, so he did his job, from his perspective.
The biggest difference that newer, higher technology, weapons have made has been the introduction of Patriot anti-missile defence. They have withstood huge barrages of missiles and drones aimed at Kyiv, including reportedly taking out nearly all hypersonic Russian missiles. They were the Russians trump card, and have been rendered largely ineffective. This has implications for the wider arms race as China is also betting big on hypersonic missiles being unstoppable.
Had the hypersonic missiles hit their targets (believed to primarily have been the Patriot batteries and other anti-missile and anti-aircraft defences) then Russia could have achieved air dominance and attacked with aircraft and drones all over Ukraine, relatively "cheaply".
So defensively, the weapons imports of the past 6 months have made a huge difference, offensively it remains to be seen.
I am expecting a pause to the Counter-Offensive due to the flooding of the Dnipro, at least in that region, and so new objectives may be set instead.
Russia's "avoid at all costs" defeat scenario would be for them to lose the Crimea, and the port of Odessa, home to their Black Sea Fleet, which they have held since March 2014.
The destruction of the Nova Khakovka dam helps Russia to defend the Crimea against the Counter-Offensive, but, as this article explains, makes it much harder to hold the isolated peninsula long-term:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/06/kakhovka-dam-maps-impact-russia-
(That article uses the Russian spelling, Dnieper, of the Dnipro River)
I am more optimistic about the situation in Belgorod (Russian border region near to Kharkiv) where "Free Russian" troops are leading a guerilla war against the Russian Army, and about the breakdown in trust between the regular Russian Army and Wagner Group, both at the highest levels, but also on the ground where shots have been fired between the two and a Russian Colonel "arrested" by Wagner. That is all at the South Eastern end of Ukraine, far from the Dnipro flooding and Crimea. | | | |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 12:25 - Jun 7 with 1725 views | bluelagos |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 10:43 - Jun 7 by ArnoldMoorhen |
The dam being blown up changes everything. Ukraine has been waiting for dry ground so that the new tanks (current generation Lepard from Germany, Abrams from USA and Challenger from UK) can be at their most effective, but massive flooding throughout the frontline (the Dnipro river is the frontline across a large part of the front) will require a rethink.
Some Ukrainian Army forces have been diverted to humanitarian rescue roles. Tens of thousands of people are newly displaced, in a country which has dispersed millions of refugees already. Does Ukraine have the capacity to cope with a vast movement of vulnerable people from the frontline areas, and to absord them elsewhere? The scale of the emergency response needed can't be underestimated.
If there was no war and the dam had failed with a similar outcome then it would be one of Europe's biggest ever disasters.
On your point about weapons: the USA is the biggest donor of Military Aid to Ukraine. This all has to come out of Government budgets. The President proposes the budget but both houses of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) have to pass it. Biden is a Democrat, and they control the Senate, but the Republicans have the majority in the House of Representatives.
This means that lots of late night deals are done with compromises made in order to get agreement on the Budget. If no agreement is made then potentially Non-Essential Government enters a shutdown.
The Budget was finally agreed in the past couple of weeks.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/27/statemen
So before that Zelensky did a lot of media aimed at US Public Opinion, talking about how important the US support is, and the difference that additional, more recent, weapons, could make. The Budget has now passed, so he did his job, from his perspective.
The biggest difference that newer, higher technology, weapons have made has been the introduction of Patriot anti-missile defence. They have withstood huge barrages of missiles and drones aimed at Kyiv, including reportedly taking out nearly all hypersonic Russian missiles. They were the Russians trump card, and have been rendered largely ineffective. This has implications for the wider arms race as China is also betting big on hypersonic missiles being unstoppable.
Had the hypersonic missiles hit their targets (believed to primarily have been the Patriot batteries and other anti-missile and anti-aircraft defences) then Russia could have achieved air dominance and attacked with aircraft and drones all over Ukraine, relatively "cheaply".
So defensively, the weapons imports of the past 6 months have made a huge difference, offensively it remains to be seen.
I am expecting a pause to the Counter-Offensive due to the flooding of the Dnipro, at least in that region, and so new objectives may be set instead.
Russia's "avoid at all costs" defeat scenario would be for them to lose the Crimea, and the port of Odessa, home to their Black Sea Fleet, which they have held since March 2014.
The destruction of the Nova Khakovka dam helps Russia to defend the Crimea against the Counter-Offensive, but, as this article explains, makes it much harder to hold the isolated peninsula long-term:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/06/kakhovka-dam-maps-impact-russia-
(That article uses the Russian spelling, Dnieper, of the Dnipro River)
I am more optimistic about the situation in Belgorod (Russian border region near to Kharkiv) where "Free Russian" troops are leading a guerilla war against the Russian Army, and about the breakdown in trust between the regular Russian Army and Wagner Group, both at the highest levels, but also on the ground where shots have been fired between the two and a Russian Colonel "arrested" by Wagner. That is all at the South Eastern end of Ukraine, far from the Dnipro flooding and Crimea. |
Cheers, very informative.
One small point - Odessa isn't and hasn't been held by the Russians.
BL [Post edited 7 Jun 2023 12:34]
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| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 12:46 - Jun 7 with 1675 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 12:25 - Jun 7 by bluelagos |
Cheers, very informative.
One small point - Odessa isn't and hasn't been held by the Russians.
BL [Post edited 7 Jun 2023 12:34]
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Doh! I meant Sevastopil (Sevastopol/Sebastapol) nit Odessa. Apologies. | | | |
| [Redacted] on 13:21 - Jun 7 with 1599 views | victorywilhappen |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 10:43 - Jun 7 by ArnoldMoorhen |
The dam being blown up changes everything. Ukraine has been waiting for dry ground so that the new tanks (current generation Lepard from Germany, Abrams from USA and Challenger from UK) can be at their most effective, but massive flooding throughout the frontline (the Dnipro river is the frontline across a large part of the front) will require a rethink.
Some Ukrainian Army forces have been diverted to humanitarian rescue roles. Tens of thousands of people are newly displaced, in a country which has dispersed millions of refugees already. Does Ukraine have the capacity to cope with a vast movement of vulnerable people from the frontline areas, and to absord them elsewhere? The scale of the emergency response needed can't be underestimated.
If there was no war and the dam had failed with a similar outcome then it would be one of Europe's biggest ever disasters.
On your point about weapons: the USA is the biggest donor of Military Aid to Ukraine. This all has to come out of Government budgets. The President proposes the budget but both houses of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) have to pass it. Biden is a Democrat, and they control the Senate, but the Republicans have the majority in the House of Representatives.
This means that lots of late night deals are done with compromises made in order to get agreement on the Budget. If no agreement is made then potentially Non-Essential Government enters a shutdown.
The Budget was finally agreed in the past couple of weeks.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/27/statemen
So before that Zelensky did a lot of media aimed at US Public Opinion, talking about how important the US support is, and the difference that additional, more recent, weapons, could make. The Budget has now passed, so he did his job, from his perspective.
The biggest difference that newer, higher technology, weapons have made has been the introduction of Patriot anti-missile defence. They have withstood huge barrages of missiles and drones aimed at Kyiv, including reportedly taking out nearly all hypersonic Russian missiles. They were the Russians trump card, and have been rendered largely ineffective. This has implications for the wider arms race as China is also betting big on hypersonic missiles being unstoppable.
Had the hypersonic missiles hit their targets (believed to primarily have been the Patriot batteries and other anti-missile and anti-aircraft defences) then Russia could have achieved air dominance and attacked with aircraft and drones all over Ukraine, relatively "cheaply".
So defensively, the weapons imports of the past 6 months have made a huge difference, offensively it remains to be seen.
I am expecting a pause to the Counter-Offensive due to the flooding of the Dnipro, at least in that region, and so new objectives may be set instead.
Russia's "avoid at all costs" defeat scenario would be for them to lose the Crimea, and the port of Odessa, home to their Black Sea Fleet, which they have held since March 2014.
The destruction of the Nova Khakovka dam helps Russia to defend the Crimea against the Counter-Offensive, but, as this article explains, makes it much harder to hold the isolated peninsula long-term:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/06/kakhovka-dam-maps-impact-russia-
(That article uses the Russian spelling, Dnieper, of the Dnipro River)
I am more optimistic about the situation in Belgorod (Russian border region near to Kharkiv) where "Free Russian" troops are leading a guerilla war against the Russian Army, and about the breakdown in trust between the regular Russian Army and Wagner Group, both at the highest levels, but also on the ground where shots have been fired between the two and a Russian Colonel "arrested" by Wagner. That is all at the South Eastern end of Ukraine, far from the Dnipro flooding and Crimea. |
[Redacted] |  | | |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 13:50 - Jun 7 with 1542 views | giant_stow |
Re your last question, I saw someone attempt to define the Dam blow-up as being a war crime if the military advantage gained was not worth the suffering caused to the population. Sounds pretty tricky to me (trying to be fair). | |
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| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 14:27 - Jun 7 with 1451 views | gtsb1966 |
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| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 14:30 - Jun 7 with 1414 views | PhilTWTD |
"The Dam is a strange one, as it supplies Crimea with power."
The suggestions I've read are that it's an indication Putin knows he won't be able to hold on to Crimea. |  | | |
| [Redacted] on 14:40 - Jun 7 with 1382 views | victorywilhappen |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 14:30 - Jun 7 by PhilTWTD |
"The Dam is a strange one, as it supplies Crimea with power."
The suggestions I've read are that it's an indication Putin knows he won't be able to hold on to Crimea. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 16:01 - Jun 7 with 1300 views | PhilTWTD |
Explosives tend to find any weaknesses which might be there. Seems little doubt it was malevolence on the Russian side. I read an interesting thread on Twitter yesterday suggesting it marked a new step in the war from a Russian perspective, from initially looking for a total invasion, then to taking control of limit areas, now, as it becomes clear they're not even going to be able to do that, to destroying what they will ultimately have to leave behind. | | | |
| [Redacted] on 16:49 - Jun 7 with 1208 views | victorywilhappen |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 16:01 - Jun 7 by PhilTWTD |
Explosives tend to find any weaknesses which might be there. Seems little doubt it was malevolence on the Russian side. I read an interesting thread on Twitter yesterday suggesting it marked a new step in the war from a Russian perspective, from initially looking for a total invasion, then to taking control of limit areas, now, as it becomes clear they're not even going to be able to do that, to destroying what they will ultimately have to leave behind. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 16:50 - Jun 7 with 1203 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 16:01 - Jun 7 by PhilTWTD |
Explosives tend to find any weaknesses which might be there. Seems little doubt it was malevolence on the Russian side. I read an interesting thread on Twitter yesterday suggesting it marked a new step in the war from a Russian perspective, from initially looking for a total invasion, then to taking control of limit areas, now, as it becomes clear they're not even going to be able to do that, to destroying what they will ultimately have to leave behind. |
That is partly how I read it, but it is going to hugely hinder the Counter Offensive. | | | |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 18:03 - Jun 7 with 1109 views | DeepBlueSea |
| If the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun on 16:50 - Jun 7 by ArnoldMoorhen |
That is partly how I read it, but it is going to hugely hinder the Counter Offensive. |
I would have expected the Ukranians to factor this into their thinking though, and plan their counteroffensive accordingly. I believe Ukraine did something similar in the areas north of Kiev in the first days of the war. | | | |
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