| Playoff Points on 13:00 - Mar 28 with 1300 views | bluestandard |
Interesting, thanks for putting this up. I’ve heard people mentioning the 09/10 champ season where 6th was 80 points, but your table shows that 74 would have been enough that year.
I am not so sure that the points total needed will be as high as people think. Those in the relegation mire will be very hard to play against and I think there will be a greater proportion of upsets as the season reaches a climax. We’ll soon find out….. |  | |  |
| Playoff Points on 13:02 - Mar 28 with 1288 views | pointofblue |
| Playoff Points on 13:00 - Mar 28 by bluestandard |
Interesting, thanks for putting this up. I’ve heard people mentioning the 09/10 champ season where 6th was 80 points, but your table shows that 74 would have been enough that year.
I am not so sure that the points total needed will be as high as people think. Those in the relegation mire will be very hard to play against and I think there will be a greater proportion of upsets as the season reaches a climax. We’ll soon find out….. |
74 would have been enough to finish seventh, not sixth. | |
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| Playoff Points on 13:39 - Mar 28 with 1212 views | xrayspecs |
What appears to be happening this season is that the teams we are competing with for the play-offs are consistently winning against teams outside the top 10.
If you assume that those teams currently above us (excluding Wigan, Rotherham and MKD as they are too far away) win their remaining games against the teams that are currently outside the top 10, then we need to win remaining six matches (82 points) to still have a chance of getting into the top six. This still may not be enough.
Plymouth 74 points (assume win 1 game v team outside top 10, plus five other games) = 77+ points from 5 games against teams currently in the top 10
Oxford 69 points (assume 3 wins v teams outside top 10, plus four other games) = 78+ 4 games
Sheff W 69 points (assume 4 wins v teams outside top 10, plus three other games) = 81+ 3 games
Sunderland 67 points (assume 4 wins v teams outside top 10, plus three other games) = 79+ 3 games
Wycombe 66 points (assume 5 wins v teams outside top 10, plus two other games) = 81+ 2 games
Portsmouth 59 points (assume 5 wins v teams outside top 10, plus three other games) = 81+ 2 games
The best we can do, if we win our remaining 6 games, is 82 points. We need to be perfect and witness a serious loss of form from four of the six teams who are chasing the last three play-off spaces. [Post edited 28 Mar 2022 13:41]
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| Playoff Points on 16:38 - Mar 28 with 1056 views | King_of_Portman_Rd |
I was surprised at how low it has been some years.. I remember Mick saying he wasn’t interested in league positions, it was purely points as 75 points would guarantee a play off place.
It does obviously depend on number of teams fighting until the last game and this season everyone down to 10th are legitimately still in the hunt which other years they’d probably have flips flops on and thinking about their summer holidays |  | | |
| Playoff Points on 16:40 - Mar 28 with 1037 views | bluestandard |
| Playoff Points on 13:02 - Mar 28 by pointofblue |
74 would have been enough to finish seventh, not sixth. |
If the 6th placed team had finished with 74 points instead of 80 points, they would have still been 6th by virtue of the fact that the 7th placed team finished with 73 points. Surely? | | | |
| Playoff Points on 17:06 - Mar 28 with 989 views | quad |
I think we definitely need to win all our games left including the Rotherham game.
If we do then Sunderland and Wycombe will need to lose at least two games each for us to go above them. Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday will both need to lose at least 3 games each. I think I've got that right.
So the way I see it is Sunderland and Wycombe are definitely catchable. Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday a lot less likely.
However, Oxford still have to play Plymouth, Sunderland, MK Dons and Rotherham in their last 7 games. I don't think it is completely out of the question that they could lose 3 games by the end of the season considering their run in is pretty difficult so I'm not giving up hope completely. However I think it would be a minor miracle to catch Sheffield Wednesday now. | | | |
| Playoff Points on 17:09 - Mar 28 with 975 views | bluestandard |
| Playoff Points on 17:06 - Mar 28 by quad |
I think we definitely need to win all our games left including the Rotherham game.
If we do then Sunderland and Wycombe will need to lose at least two games each for us to go above them. Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday will both need to lose at least 3 games each. I think I've got that right.
So the way I see it is Sunderland and Wycombe are definitely catchable. Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday a lot less likely.
However, Oxford still have to play Plymouth, Sunderland, MK Dons and Rotherham in their last 7 games. I don't think it is completely out of the question that they could lose 3 games by the end of the season considering their run in is pretty difficult so I'm not giving up hope completely. However I think it would be a minor miracle to catch Sheffield Wednesday now. |
Agreed, but also Plymouth could drop 10 points given their run in and injuries etc….. | | | |
| Playoff Points on 17:13 - Mar 28 with 947 views | pointofblue |
| Playoff Points on 16:40 - Mar 28 by bluestandard |
If the 6th placed team had finished with 74 points instead of 80 points, they would have still been 6th by virtue of the fact that the 7th placed team finished with 73 points. Surely? |
Yes but sixth place finished on 80 points that season, so any points total lower than that would not have been enough. | |
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| Playoff Points on 17:24 - Mar 28 with 929 views | quad |
| Playoff Points on 17:09 - Mar 28 by bluestandard |
Agreed, but also Plymouth could drop 10 points given their run in and injuries etc….. |
That's interesting. Hadn't even considered that. Plymouth play Oxford next game too.
I think we need Plymouth to either win all their games or lose all their games. Nothing in between.  | | | |
| Playoff Points on 17:28 - Mar 28 with 914 views | marchy |
| Playoff Points on 13:00 - Mar 28 by bluestandard |
Interesting, thanks for putting this up. I’ve heard people mentioning the 09/10 champ season where 6th was 80 points, but your table shows that 74 would have been enough that year.
I am not so sure that the points total needed will be as high as people think. Those in the relegation mire will be very hard to play against and I think there will be a greater proportion of upsets as the season reaches a climax. We’ll soon find out….. |
Well I hope it's very soon. | | | |
| Playoff Points on 17:52 - Mar 28 with 864 views | farkenhell |
| Playoff Points on 17:13 - Mar 28 by pointofblue |
Yes but sixth place finished on 80 points that season, so any points total lower than that would not have been enough. |
I can see what you're both saying (and each time I re-read your posts, I keep changing my mind!)
However, if the point of the exercise is to try to guess how many points we will need this season (to make the play-offs) then the simple answer must surely be "one more point (or better GD) than 7th place". In which case, for comparison purposes, in that particular season, you would only have needed 74 points for 6th place. The fact that the team that finished 6th actually achieved 80 points is immaterial. Surely?
I better click "add reply" before I change my mind again! | | | |
| Playoff Points on 18:00 - Mar 28 with 836 views | pointofblue |
| Playoff Points on 17:52 - Mar 28 by farkenhell |
I can see what you're both saying (and each time I re-read your posts, I keep changing my mind!)
However, if the point of the exercise is to try to guess how many points we will need this season (to make the play-offs) then the simple answer must surely be "one more point (or better GD) than 7th place". In which case, for comparison purposes, in that particular season, you would only have needed 74 points for 6th place. The fact that the team that finished 6th actually achieved 80 points is immaterial. Surely?
I better click "add reply" before I change my mind again! |
Ah, ok, thanks - I understand to a point but surely in any given season, looking back, we’d need to get one more point, or beat on goal difference, the current sixth place team. If we only better the seventh place team then they’d move down to eighth and we’d languish one place outside the play offs? | |
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| Playoff Points on 18:02 - Mar 28 with 834 views | bluestandard |
| Playoff Points on 17:28 - Mar 28 by marchy |
Well I hope it's very soon. |
Lol!! Well that graphic killed it!! Maybe the bottom teams this year are just so much more sh%te this year…… | | | |
| Playoff Points on 18:05 - Mar 28 with 820 views | bluestandard |
| Playoff Points on 18:00 - Mar 28 by pointofblue |
Ah, ok, thanks - I understand to a point but surely in any given season, looking back, we’d need to get one more point, or beat on goal difference, the current sixth place team. If we only better the seventh place team then they’d move down to eighth and we’d languish one place outside the play offs? |
I think we basically agree mate. Just coming at it from different perspectives. | | | |
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