| Round Two: Par 20:20 - Aug 31 with 2374 views | Kropotkin123 |
Recap: Round One - Albatross
We had established a few things last time.
First, par was established from pre-season betting odds. Each team is ranked and weighted according to this.
Second, Barnsley had been used as a marker, as they had achieved 91 points to gain automatic promotion. No team in the last five seasons had finished below second, if they achieved 90 points. I roughly used their home and away form to get an idea of what an expected result is against each team.
Third, Victory against Burton and 2 draws against promotion rivals Sunderland and Peterborough had given us five points. We were projected to get one point. This put us in a healthy position of being four under par.
Since then Bury have been expelled from the league. I’m just going to continue with 84 points as the target, as they 24th in the pre-season betting table.
Round Two: Par
We had a target of nine points from these three fixtures and we got nine. It was the first time we won three in a row since the start of the 2017—18 season! I freely admitted that I was nervous about this and our first game seemed to validate those nerves.
We played Wimbledon, who are now on two points from six games, but they have had some tricky fixtures themselves. If they were going for automatic promotion they would have been par 8, compared to our par 10. They certainly haven’t embarrassed themselves, so may be a game that one of the top teams trip up on.
Wimbledon took the lead in that game, heading into halftime with three points. It gave us a sense of character in the team now. Not cursing our luck, or poor form, the players equalised with 10mins to go and then took it to the wire, getting a last minute winner.
A very easy game followed, as we crushed Bolton 5-0 away from home. The only time the result looked in doubt was when their takeover bidding seemingly fell through.
One of the great things to come out of the game was our strikers scoring. Norwodd and Jackson both continued their good form and put another two past Shrewsbury today.
Shresbury had already proven tough fixture for our promotion rivals Portsmouth, beating them 1-0 on the opening day of the season. So, as much as it was a par win, no game is a foregone conclusion and it was impressive that we effectively ended they game in the first 10 minutes.
Overall you can’t ask too much more from the games. Three games, ten goals scored and only one conceded. Performances can improve and that is exciting, given the results we are getting.
We remain four under par going into our next three games.
Round Three Projection: 1 Win, 2 Draws
With Rochdale called off, we may lose our top spot. Our next three games become Doncaster (H), MK Dons (A) and Gillingham (A). On paper, I thought they would be similar to our last three. But actually we are playing a different calibre of opposition, so we do need to be a little more measured.
Doncaster are 7th favourites, so expect them to be pushing for a play-off spot by the end of the season. I believe they have gone slightly under the radar as whilst they are 11th and only on 8 points. But this is because they have only played four games. They actually already have some pretty respectable results, such as beating Lincoln (sixth favourites) 3-2.
We are expected to draw at home with Doncaster, which should be a big motivation to get another couple of points in the bag. Doncaster may still feel a little untested away from home, as they have only played one of their four games away so far. Portman Road will hopefully prove overwhelming at this stage of the season.
Unsurprisingly, having played 4 games, Doncaster feature high on the defensive league and low on the attacking league. It is hard to grasp what they will bring.
MK Dons away is also a projected draw. However, they are definitely vulnerable in defence. We should be looking to take the game to them. The have conceded 10 goals from five games and sit fourth from bottom in the defensive league.
This isn’t quite Bolton standards (average three per game), but it is something we would want to take advantage of. With that being said, it is still a projected draw, so we need to bring our A-Game, if we want to grab an extra 2 points.
I have memories of travelling to Gillingham and standing in their away end, which seemed to be made up entirely of scaffolding. We came away with three points then and we are pojected to win here too. Gillingham are in the group of struggling but safe.
Expect them to put men behind the ball. They are more resilient than MK Dons and may prove more of a challenge to break down. Their only win so far this season was a 5-0 win at home to Bolton. We all know how dreadful they were and I imagine the home game could be one of our biggest ever wins, unless they strengthen.
They may be a bit nervous and prone to mistakes, if they don’t put a win on the table before we play them.
The Ipswich fan in me is backing us to get three wins, but this is why we are doing this. To keep ourselves grounded.
Top Six Table
The Top Six Table is displayed to give a more authentic look at how our current rivals are doing. The top six are obviously doing really well, right in the mix for promotion. But we want to know who has had the most difficult games, so we know who is likely to stay around and who is likely to fall away.
The bigger the under par number, the better it is for that club. The bigger the over par score, the more likely they are to fall away.
Ipswich, 14 pts, 4 under par
Lincoln , 12pts, 3 under par
Blackpool, 12pts, 3 over par
Coventry City, 12pts, par
Wycombe, 12pts, 4 over par
Sunderland, 11pts, 3 under par
Whilst Wycombe had a great start, they have played pretty easy sides. This is great for them, as they are picking up points, but until they play better teams, we shouldn’t expect them to stick around.
Licoln, like ourselves, are doing great Despite losing twice, they are a full win ahead of their projection.
Despite getting absolutely tanked 3-0 by Peterborough today, Sunderland were projected to lose that game and are 3 under par. The have played us, Portsmouth and Peterborough in their first three games and this was a tough draw.
Summary
August is over. We are undefeated. We are top of the league. We are 4 points ahead of a projected 2nd place finish. Enjoy it!! |  |
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| Round Two: Par on 22:23 - Aug 31 with 2311 views | The_Romford_Blue |
I like the idea.
Although winning three on the spin against anyone in the league should qualify as better than just ‘par’. Although, I do appreciate that’s not really how you’re doing it. |  |
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| Round Two: Par on 22:24 - Aug 31 with 2308 views | J2BLUE |
Not sure how 9/9 can be par but interesting idea. |  |
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| Round Two: Par on 22:31 - Aug 31 with 2294 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Sunderland are 3 under par? So they would only be expected to be on 8 points?
With Bolton having called off a game, the international break and Bury not playing there is going to be a lot of variation over how many games teams have played.
We need to focus on getting the points we need. We have dropped points against 2 teams who will be around the top 6 but stayed unbeaten and not dropped any against the other teams we have played. Hard to have had a better start than that. Carry on like that and we will win the league. I am sure there will be some hiccups to come but very happy at the moment. |  |
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| Round Two: Par on 23:02 - Aug 31 with 2262 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Round Two: Par on 22:31 - Aug 31 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Sunderland are 3 under par? So they would only be expected to be on 8 points?
With Bolton having called off a game, the international break and Bury not playing there is going to be a lot of variation over how many games teams have played.
We need to focus on getting the points we need. We have dropped points against 2 teams who will be around the top 6 but stayed unbeaten and not dropped any against the other teams we have played. Hard to have had a better start than that. Carry on like that and we will win the league. I am sure there will be some hiccups to come but very happy at the moment. |
That's right, projecting for a 2nd place finish. They get removed for the top spot and Portsmouth and Ipswich would be their home and away loss. Boro would be a draw at home and loss away.
So beating Portsmouth and drawing with us gives the 4, and losing to Boro gives them par.
By this measurement, we are doing the best and on course to win the league, with Lincoln and Sunderland battling for 2nd.
But early days, we'll get more of an idea of outlying results and patterns over the next 6 games | |
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| Round Two: Par on 23:14 - Aug 31 with 2248 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Round Two: Par on 22:23 - Aug 31 by The_Romford_Blue |
I like the idea.
Although winning three on the spin against anyone in the league should qualify as better than just ‘par’. Although, I do appreciate that’s not really how you’re doing it. |
Yeah, I'm more proud of us winning three in a row than the piece suggests.
By not dropping points like that against lower ranked teams, it means we build upon those tougher first three games, and not let the advantages we built slip away. | |
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| Round Two: Par on 23:35 - Aug 31 with 2235 views | wellsy700 |
| Round Two: Par on 23:14 - Aug 31 by Kropotkin123 |
Yeah, I'm more proud of us winning three in a row than the piece suggests.
By not dropping points like that against lower ranked teams, it means we build upon those tougher first three games, and not let the advantages we built slip away. |
Really like this idea.
However, in round one you said we were projected to get just 1 point. But then later you seem to say that Sunderland were projected to lose against us, which was part of round one?? Apologies if I’ve misunderstood |  |
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| Round Two: Par on 23:43 - Aug 31 with 2216 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
I am still a little confused by the under par and over par.
Are we expected to be on 10 pts so we are under par?
Does that mean Blackpool "should" be on 15 and Wycombe 16? Have they played all the relegation favourites already? | |
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| Round Two: Par on 07:28 - Sep 1 with 2146 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Round Two: Par on 23:35 - Aug 31 by wellsy700 |
Really like this idea.
However, in round one you said we were projected to get just 1 point. But then later you seem to say that Sunderland were projected to lose against us, which was part of round one?? Apologies if I’ve misunderstood |
Yep, you are right. I'll make sure I clarify this in more detail next time, as this part of the methodology is throwing up the majority of the confusion in different ways.
As each team being discussed is given the same projection 90 points for automatic promotion, we were projected to lose against each other.
The projection is based on how Barnsley did. Essentially we are looking to get 51 points at home and 39 points away. Barnsley didn't actually lose at home. So there home form was great compared their away, but it wasn't the norm to go undefeated at home in different seasons.
At home the projection is 15w 6d 2l. Away we are projected 11w 6d 6l. Note this is slightly different to the first round as I have it in a spreadsheet and it didn't pick up on one of the home wins in the calculation as it had a space after the W.
So with the loses, we simply project to lose against the top two teams at home and the top 6 teams away. So when we play Sunderland - Favourites to win the league - we are projected to lose both games.
But from Sunderland's perspective they are expected to lose both games too. As us as portsmouth become the top two on a 90 point projection for them.
Now obviously football isn't a neat thing, where we lose against the top teams and draw against the next team and lose against the worst. But that is how the difficulty is ranked.
Currently, Sunderland has had a really tough opening 6 games and in this weighted table it shows we should consider this, rather than thinking they are doing poorly.
We have done great to go top in real life and this is even better when we put a valuation on the teams we have played.
Does that make sense? If so I'll drop it in next rounds summary. | |
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| Round Two: Par on 07:33 - Sep 1 with 2137 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Round Two: Par on 23:43 - Aug 31 by Nthsuffolkblue |
I am still a little confused by the under par and over par.
Are we expected to be on 10 pts so we are under par?
Does that mean Blackpool "should" be on 15 and Wycombe 16? Have they played all the relegation favourites already? |
Yes, that is correct. Wycombe should have collected 16 points and Blackpool 15.
I wouldn't say just relegation favourites though. Wycombe have played 5 teams within the projected bottom 15 at home and the bottom 11 away from home. They have played one from the top 2 at home or top 6 away. | |
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| Round Two: Par on 12:31 - Sep 1 with 2041 views | pointofblue |
| Round Two: Par on 07:42 - Sep 1 by Kropotkin123 |
I think the explanation to the other poster, two above this, explains this. Sunderland were projected to lose against us and we were projected to lose against them.
We were expected to draw at Burton and lose to Peterborough and Sunderland.
From Sunderland's perspective they were projected to lose against us, Portsmouth and Peterborough. So the win against Portsmouth was significant for improving in their projection.
Let me know if you have questions that the other post doesn't explain. |
Thanks for this. I still don’t quite get why Sunderland were projected to get a point from us but lose at Peterborough, though?  |  |
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| Round Two: Par on 14:03 - Sep 1 with 2017 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Round Two: Par on 12:31 - Sep 1 by pointofblue |
Thanks for this. I still don’t quite get why Sunderland were projected to get a point from us but lose at Peterborough, though? |
They were projected to lose to us from their perspective. From our perspective we were projected to lose to them.
They are projected to lose away to Peterborough and draw at home. | |
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| Round Two: Par on 15:51 - Sep 1 with 1992 views | pointofblue |
| Round Two: Par on 14:03 - Sep 1 by Kropotkin123 |
They were projected to lose to us from their perspective. From our perspective we were projected to lose to them.
They are projected to lose away to Peterborough and draw at home. |
Oh I get it - I think. The results aren’t mutually exclusive; there can be a ‘result’ where both teams get no points? | |
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| Round Two: Par on 16:56 - Sep 1 with 1967 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Round Two: Par on 15:51 - Sep 1 by pointofblue |
Oh I get it - I think. The results aren’t mutually exclusive; there can be a ‘result’ where both teams get no points? |
Yep, exactly. Anyone who plays Sunderland and Ipswich are projected to get 0 points home and away.
Of course we aren't projected to win every game this season. | |
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| Round Two: Par on 17:12 - Sep 1 with 1955 views | pointofblue |
| Round Two: Par on 16:56 - Sep 1 by Kropotkin123 |
Yep, exactly. Anyone who plays Sunderland and Ipswich are projected to get 0 points home and away.
Of course we aren't projected to win every game this season. |
Great, thanks for that. | |
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