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We're all heading for a 'nother recession No more money for a Year or few Things'll be grim in a 'nother recession No nice things for me or you Might lose our jobs too
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 13:35 - Aug 14 by homer_123
And people are perplexed when people for vote for different approaches and alternatives.
Would be great if they happened to be well-thought-out economic solutions, rather than low regulatory free-for-alls or chauvinistic protectionism. It's Trump's trade war which is largely responsible for tipping us over the edge this time.
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 13:38 - Aug 14 by Guthrum
Would be great if they happened to be well-thought-out economic solutions, rather than low regulatory free-for-alls or chauvinistic protectionism. It's Trump's trade war which is largely responsible for tipping us over the edge this time.
It would but that rather misses the point doesn't it.
The disparity between the 'haves' and 'have nots' is growing and growing at a faster pace than ever before - for the first time in god knows how long social mobility is going backwards in the country.
Regardless of how well thought out the alternatives are (or not) for some - the idea of something different is better than the current situation (or at least the thought of something different).
Most of us on here I suspect live in the south east or south.
Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 13:48 - Aug 14 by homer_123
It would but that rather misses the point doesn't it.
The disparity between the 'haves' and 'have nots' is growing and growing at a faster pace than ever before - for the first time in god knows how long social mobility is going backwards in the country.
Regardless of how well thought out the alternatives are (or not) for some - the idea of something different is better than the current situation (or at least the thought of something different).
Most of us on here I suspect live in the south east or south.
Right on the point. Politicians keener on enriching target voter (or donor) groups than improving society as a whole. No social conscience.
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 13:38 - Aug 14 by Guthrum
Would be great if they happened to be well-thought-out economic solutions, rather than low regulatory free-for-alls or chauvinistic protectionism. It's Trump's trade war which is largely responsible for tipping us over the edge this time.
There are alternative views being set out from the left, but of course Labour are unelectable and it's all pie in the sky, magic money tree nonsense.
What's that thing about madness and doing the same thing over and over again?
Still, looking forward to the next recession.
footers QC - Prosecution Barrister, Hasketon Law Chambers
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 13:41 - Aug 14 by ElGuaje4
Is it all Labour’s fault again?
To be honest if you want to look internally then country as a whole can take a bit of the blame this time. So much squabbling about Brexit leaves very little time for actually running a country.
Realistically, the causes of any recession are likely to be global, especially around the US-China spat. Unfortunately there aren't many tools left to make much difference with rates being as low as they already are.
SB
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 14:17 - Aug 14 with 3113 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 14:17 - Aug 14 by StokieBlue
Being alternative isn't the same as being plausible, sensible or even workable.
That doesn't mean such policies shouldn't be explored, just that being alternative doesn't make it any better.
SB
I'd be keen to explore the ideas Stiglitz et al have in mind, wouldn't you?
The daft thing is, in capitalistic terms, heavier investment in Britain, in terms of health, education, infrastructure, etc, would probably be of a net benefit to most companies. But I suppose so long as the corporate tax rate keeps on dropping then we'll all be better off somehow. Eventually.
footers QC - Prosecution Barrister, Hasketon Law Chambers
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 14:20 - Aug 14 by footers
I'd be keen to explore the ideas Stiglitz et al have in mind, wouldn't you?
The daft thing is, in capitalistic terms, heavier investment in Britain, in terms of health, education, infrastructure, etc, would probably be of a net benefit to most companies. But I suppose so long as the corporate tax rate keeps on dropping then we'll all be better off somehow. Eventually.
Are you referring to a form of Georgism? If so there are some issues with that which I am sure you'd love to discuss :).
As for infrastructure, I agree that investment in such things should be of a net benefit. I suspect we might disagree on how it's funded though but the end goal doesn't have to be different.
It also depends on what infrastructure - policies like nationalising the post office are pointless and backward in this day and age.
SB
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:02 - Aug 14 with 2997 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 13:48 - Aug 14 by homer_123
It would but that rather misses the point doesn't it.
The disparity between the 'haves' and 'have nots' is growing and growing at a faster pace than ever before - for the first time in god knows how long social mobility is going backwards in the country.
Regardless of how well thought out the alternatives are (or not) for some - the idea of something different is better than the current situation (or at least the thought of something different).
Most of us on here I suspect live in the south east or south.
Brexit will hit the poorest the hardest whilst the wealthy flourish. If people are fed up of the status quo and want alternatives then they really ought to look into things sufficiently to ensure that the alternative they are voting for won't simply reinforce the status quo yet further.
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 14:15 - Aug 14 by StokieBlue
To be honest if you want to look internally then country as a whole can take a bit of the blame this time. So much squabbling about Brexit leaves very little time for actually running a country.
Realistically, the causes of any recession are likely to be global, especially around the US-China spat. Unfortunately there aren't many tools left to make much difference with rates being as low as they already are.
SB
The government is just as clueless over running the country as it is over Brexit, let's be honest here.
They don't seem to look further or deeper with their policies than the next poll or pat on the back from the Telegraph etc.
Pronouns: He/Him
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:31 - Aug 14 with 2896 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:24 - Aug 14 by Darth_Koont
The government is just as clueless over running the country as it is over Brexit, let's be honest here.
They don't seem to look further or deeper with their policies than the next poll or pat on the back from the Telegraph etc.
Fair point.
The US seems the same. One day it's free trade deals all round and the next it's a different arm of the government saying they will block any trade deals if the good friday agreement is impacted (which it will be):
#Germany becomes the sick man of Europe again. GDP shrinks by 0.1% in Q2, slowing growth in the whole Eurozone. As the German economy is on recession course, the discussion about economic stimulus programs will become louder. https://t.co/ZapnewWJI2 via @weltpic.twitter.com/kJK21aF3Pc
Above tweet reads: #Germany becomes the sick man of Europe again. GDP shrinks by 0.1% in Q2, slowing growth in the whole Eurozone. As the German economy is on recession course, the discussion about economic stimulus programs will become louder.
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 14:27 - Aug 14 by StokieBlue
Are you referring to a form of Georgism? If so there are some issues with that which I am sure you'd love to discuss :).
As for infrastructure, I agree that investment in such things should be of a net benefit. I suspect we might disagree on how it's funded though but the end goal doesn't have to be different.
It also depends on what infrastructure - policies like nationalising the post office are pointless and backward in this day and age.
SB
Not Georgism specifically, but new ways of thinking are needed here. The current system simply isn't anywhere redistributive enough imo. Especially in light of growing automation/AI, etc- we need something drastically different. What, I do not know.
Can I just ask why privatising a profitable, nationalised business was a good idea in the first place? It was clearly ideological and a bad deal for taxpayers.
footers QC - Prosecution Barrister, Hasketon Law Chambers
I watched a documentary about the collapse of the Morandi Bridge in Genoa last night. One of the contributing factors to the collapse was a reduction in maintenance and in particular regular checks of the bridge after the last financial crisis.
Lets hope they don't cut back on maintenance of the Orwell Bridge if this crisis gets sever.
People trading sentiment around trade, not fundamentals - which are actually OK albeit manufacturing is slowing.
And whatever happens, banks are so well capitalised now it's very unlikely to be anything like 2008 again (Barring an unkonwn unkown coming out of the woodwork - I woild class trade, brexit & Italy as known unknowns)
I happen to believe the "Goldilocks" scenario is the most likely outcome now. I.e. growth is neither too cold nor too hot.
[Post edited 14 Aug 2019 15:55]
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:54 - Aug 14 with 2814 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:45 - Aug 14 by midastouch
#Germany becomes the sick man of Europe again. GDP shrinks by 0.1% in Q2, slowing growth in the whole Eurozone. As the German economy is on recession course, the discussion about economic stimulus programs will become louder. https://t.co/ZapnewWJI2 via @weltpic.twitter.com/kJK21aF3Pc
Above tweet reads: #Germany becomes the sick man of Europe again. GDP shrinks by 0.1% in Q2, slowing growth in the whole Eurozone. As the German economy is on recession course, the discussion about economic stimulus programs will become louder.
Agree with last point, quite why they refuse to turn on the Fiscal taps is beyond most people.
Hopefully Lagarde can lean on them a bit more than Draghi was able to.
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 16:05 - Aug 14 with 2763 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:49 - Aug 14 by footers
Not Georgism specifically, but new ways of thinking are needed here. The current system simply isn't anywhere redistributive enough imo. Especially in light of growing automation/AI, etc- we need something drastically different. What, I do not know.
Can I just ask why privatising a profitable, nationalised business was a good idea in the first place? It was clearly ideological and a bad deal for taxpayers.
Those are fair points, what are your thoughts on some form of UBI? Of course the question there is once again how to pay for it. I'm not really in favour of a LVT though, well not one that I've seen so far.
Two wrongs don't make a right though. It's a dinosaur in the modern world really. As for bad deal for taxpayers, it certainly was for a few years but the share price is ~50% of the IPO price now so perhaps the price taxpayers received was actually generous and the original rise was based on very little real value.
It was certainly ideologically driven but then so is blanket renationalisation. Neither is the correct way forward. I certainly agree with nationalising some infrastructure though, depending on how it's done.
SB
[Post edited 14 Aug 2019 16:07]
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 16:07 - Aug 14 with 2757 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:02 - Aug 14 by Herbivore
Brexit will hit the poorest the hardest whilst the wealthy flourish. If people are fed up of the status quo and want alternatives then they really ought to look into things sufficiently to ensure that the alternative they are voting for won't simply reinforce the status quo yet further.
We all have a collective responsibility and some do look and some don't.
Even when you do look - there is often conflicting views, opinions and evidence about the pros and cons of any decision.
Any long term forecast (certainly economically) is inherently flawed and worthless - we as humans as notoriously poor at forecasting.
So it is incredibly difficult to really understand what you might be voting for anyway.
Back to my original point - I think many forget just how tough it is, in this country, for many people - the current system doesn't work, that's clear and utterly evidence based - so, regardless of decent the alternative is, how its portrayed and whether it will be the same, worse or better, it's quite easy to understand why people choose the alternative - they've had enough. That's my point - I think people have forgotten that in the narrative that now sits around where we are.
Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 15:54 - Aug 14 by nrb1985
Agree with last point, quite why they refuse to turn on the Fiscal taps is beyond most people.
Hopefully Lagarde can lean on them a bit more than Draghi was able to.
You can see there are a lot of investors getting squeaky bums as the price of gold (seen as a safe haven in times of potential trouble) has broken a key resistance level on the weekly chart (this chart is the price of gold in dollars rather than sterling):
That black resistance line I've drawn hadn't been breached in 3 years but broke it just a few weeks ago. Gold went up a lot last week too. Not saying I'd want to ever put all my eggs in the gold basket but I can see why some people are putting 10% of their portfolios into precious metals (gold and silver) at a time like this given there does seem some real economic uncertainty ahead. Gold and silver prices had been in real decline since the previous highs of 2011 but there does seem to be some suggestion they are finally waking up again. The Gold to Dow ratio is always worth watching as gives a good indication as to when stocks are overvalued and gold is undervalued and vice versa.
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 16:07 - Aug 14 by StokieBlue
What stimulus to you want them to engage in?
SB
I believe there is quite a lot of infrastructure projects people more familiar with the matter would like them to invest in. Especially while they are effectively being paid to take on debt.
Current fiscal policy doesn't make sense given circumstances and they have more than enough in coffers to be a bit more expansionary.
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 16:16 - Aug 14 with 2716 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 16:11 - Aug 14 by midastouch
You can see there are a lot of investors getting squeaky bums as the price of gold (seen as a safe haven in times of potential trouble) has broken a key resistance level on the weekly chart (this chart is the price of gold in dollars rather than sterling):
That black resistance line I've drawn hadn't been breached in 3 years but broke it just a few weeks ago. Gold went up a lot last week too. Not saying I'd want to ever put all my eggs in the gold basket but I can see why some people are putting 10% of their portfolios into precious metals (gold and silver) at a time like this given there does seem some real economic uncertainty ahead. Gold and silver prices had been in real decline since the previous highs of 2011 but there does seem to be some suggestion they are finally waking up again. The Gold to Dow ratio is always worth watching as gives a good indication as to when stocks are overvalued and gold is undervalued and vice versa.
Can't see your chart for some reason but gold going up is as a result of so much negative yielding debt and the flight to safety seems to be driven mostly by trade fears.
Depends I suppose on whether you think we will end up in a fully blown trade war or whether Trump will need to do a deal pre 2020.
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Hurrah, another financial crisis on 16:48 - Aug 14 with 2641 views
Hurrah, another financial crisis on 16:16 - Aug 14 by nrb1985
Can't see your chart for some reason but gold going up is as a result of so much negative yielding debt and the flight to safety seems to be driven mostly by trade fears.
Depends I suppose on whether you think we will end up in a fully blown trade war or whether Trump will need to do a deal pre 2020.
This could be worth a watch, haven't seen it yet but will watch it later when I have time. Just watched the first couple of minutes and I've added it to my watchlist.
Video description: Is global recession coming — and if so, what should investors do about it? Here's a peek at the upcoming conversations we'll be releasing that explore the likelihood of a global recession. Subscribe so you don't miss a single interview.
Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal is asking the questions that matter most for markets and addressing them with some of the world’s most insightful investors and analysts. In this piece, which has been compiled from videos that were previously released on Real Vision, we hear from experts including John Burbank, Kiril Sokoloff, Josh Wolfe, and Greg Weldon.
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