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No deal Brexit 08:51 - Aug 11 with 15242 viewsHerbivore

In recent days there have been a number of stories coming out about a no deal Brexit.

We’ve had Matt Hancock — now fervent no deal backer — refusing to rule out that a no deal Brexit could lead to deaths of patients due to medication shortages. He has spoken about millions of pounds being spent on trying to prevent this whilst describing no deal as “not pretty”. (Source — The Evening Standard)

We’ve had Christopher Hope, another ardent Brexiteer, explaining how we can airlift in essentials like food and medication in the event of a no deal Brexit. That’s right, the 5th largest economy in the world can airlift in humanitarian aid for itself in the event of a no deal Brexit. The cabinet are also reported to have accepted that food prices will increase post-Brexit and this will have an impact for at least a decade. (Source — The Telegraph)

We’ve had a government leak telling us that we cannot maintain the integrity of our waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. (Source — The BBC)

We’ve had the treasury telling us that they will be setting up a “bail out fund” to prevent businesses from going bust in the event of a no deal Brexit. That’s millions if not billions of pounds of public money that is going to be used to prop up businesses that would otherwise fail because of a no deal Brexit. (Source — Various news outlets)

Now, these aren’t ‘project fear’ scare stories from ‘Remoaners’. These are coming from those who either support Brexit, are charged with preparing for no deal Brexit, or most often both. Nobody — aside from perhaps Boris — is even trying to pretend anymore that a no deal Brexit will lead us to the ‘sunlit uplands’. They are open about the fact that it will harm businesses and the economy and that it will lead to shortages of food and medication. It will make things more expensive for the public. We risk inflation going through the roof. On top of that we also know:

A no deal Brexit poses an existential threat to the United Kingdom. In the event of no deal, Scotland will agitate to leave the UK and it seems more likely than not that they will leave. Northern Ireland will be plunged into deep uncertainty.

No deal Brexit also puts us back to square one in negotiating future trade with the EU, but it puts us in a position of weakness in doing so because (a) we will be desperate for a deal, and (b) negotiations will likely take place in an atmosphere of mistrust and bad faith given how the government has conducted itself over Brexit thus far.

Furthermore, the US has ruled out a trade deal with the UK being ratified if the UK does anything to jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement. A no deal Brexit, which will necessitate border checks on the island of Ireland, will necessarily act as a threat to the Good Friday Agreement and that scuppers us doing a trade deal with the US.

Other major countries will be reluctant to do trade deals with us for two reasons. Firstly, we’ve already said we intend to offer tariff-free access for 90%+ of goods and services following a no deal Brexit, so there is no incentive to do a free trade deal with us. Secondly, any major economy will want to know what our trading relationship with the EU will look like before committing to a deal. They will want to know how easily a deal with us will improve or hinder access to our biggest trading partner in the EU.

We also know that Brexit has cost and will continue to cost billions in terms of money spent to mitigate its impact and in terms of the ongoing hit on the economy.

I know that there are some on here who are very keen on a no deal Brexit and see this as their preferred option. Given all of the above I am genuinely curious as to what the rational basis is for your support of a no deal Brexit. What do you see as the short- and long-term benefits that will outweigh all of the above? Do you feel that potential deaths, food and medication shortages, the break up of the UK, the economy struggling, things becoming more expensive, billions being spent on avoiding disaster rather than making the country better etc. is a price worth paying to leave the EU at all costs? If so, how do you justify that?
[Post edited 11 Aug 2019 9:10]

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No deal Brexit on 09:05 - Aug 11 with 7224 viewsBlueinBrum

In my experiences to date, no one who is in favour of no-deal will be able / willing to read a considered and detailed post like that and respond with relevant and reasonable arguments, so I wouldnt’t get your hopes up.

The swivel towards no deal is nothing short of a coup by the right wing of the Conservative party, and is something we as ordinary citizens are going to feel the pain of for a generation.

Hoping someone proves me wrong and manages to give you a decent response.
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No deal Brexit on 09:07 - Aug 11 with 7214 viewshomer_123

Good post Herbs.

Obviously we dont know for certain that people will die as a result of leaving the EU or that there will be food or medication shortages. They are merely possibilities and they are right to talk about such possibilities.

Whether we stay in or leave the EU has no bearing on where we spend our money. We can choose to spend on the NHS, Education, Social care or Mental health regardless of anything.

It's interesting, dont you think, that over the last 10 to 15 years we choose not to invest in these services. We choose to not debate and tackle difficult issues, we choose not to talk about tax rises, proper funding, proper restructures of said services and we have been in the EU during that period.

I've posted on this before and these things are far more important than Brexit.

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No deal Brexit on 09:10 - Aug 11 with 7197 viewsfactual_blue

But at least racist little Englanders will be happy.

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No deal Brexit on 09:13 - Aug 11 with 7186 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 09:07 - Aug 11 by homer_123

Good post Herbs.

Obviously we dont know for certain that people will die as a result of leaving the EU or that there will be food or medication shortages. They are merely possibilities and they are right to talk about such possibilities.

Whether we stay in or leave the EU has no bearing on where we spend our money. We can choose to spend on the NHS, Education, Social care or Mental health regardless of anything.

It's interesting, dont you think, that over the last 10 to 15 years we choose not to invest in these services. We choose to not debate and tackle difficult issues, we choose not to talk about tax rises, proper funding, proper restructures of said services and we have been in the EU during that period.

I've posted on this before and these things are far more important than Brexit.


Agreed. I don't know why people think the Tories are suddenly going to care about the NHS and deprived areas of the country just because we've left the EU. What is likely though if we leave with no deal is that there will be less money available for the government to spend generally, given the hit on the economy and the costs associated with mitigating the impact of no deal.

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No deal Brexit on 09:14 - Aug 11 with 7184 viewshomer_123

No deal Brexit on 09:10 - Aug 11 by factual_blue

But at least racist little Englanders will be happy.


I'm surprised you've posted something like that Facters. Thought that you'd be way above that sort of rhetoric.

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No deal Brexit on 09:15 - Aug 11 with 7171 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 09:05 - Aug 11 by BlueinBrum

In my experiences to date, no one who is in favour of no-deal will be able / willing to read a considered and detailed post like that and respond with relevant and reasonable arguments, so I wouldnt’t get your hopes up.

The swivel towards no deal is nothing short of a coup by the right wing of the Conservative party, and is something we as ordinary citizens are going to feel the pain of for a generation.

Hoping someone proves me wrong and manages to give you a decent response.


The citizens need to take to the streets if the government continues down this path. There is no mandate for what they're pursuing.

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No deal Brexit on 09:17 - Aug 11 with 7158 viewshomer_123

No deal Brexit on 09:13 - Aug 11 by Herbivore

Agreed. I don't know why people think the Tories are suddenly going to care about the NHS and deprived areas of the country just because we've left the EU. What is likely though if we leave with no deal is that there will be less money available for the government to spend generally, given the hit on the economy and the costs associated with mitigating the impact of no deal.


Short term def a hit in monies...no question.

But put that to one side. The point is we need a conversation about what sort of society we live in and want live in and how we pay for that. That has no bearing on EU membership.

But we choose not to have it...all governments are short term and plan short term.

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No deal Brexit on 09:21 - Aug 11 with 7145 viewsWestover

IMO when the country voted to leave three years ago they did not have enough information I didn't and now three years later many older people have passed away and the young are now old enough to vote, I think there should be another vote, but that won't happen.👎
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No deal Brexit on 09:23 - Aug 11 with 7135 viewshomer_123

No deal Brexit on 09:15 - Aug 11 by Herbivore

The citizens need to take to the streets if the government continues down this path. There is no mandate for what they're pursuing.


Genuine question Herbs.

Like over in Hong Kong? I ask as we condemn such protests (and rightly) from many groups that protest about what they believe.

Gotta be peaceful.

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No deal Brexit on 09:24 - Aug 11 with 7132 viewsm14_blue

No deal Brexit on 09:14 - Aug 11 by homer_123

I'm surprised you've posted something like that Facters. Thought that you'd be way above that sort of rhetoric.


They will be happy though won’t they?

Not all no deal brexit supporters are racist little Englanders but all racist little Englanders are no deal brexit supporters.
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No deal Brexit on 09:37 - Aug 11 with 7086 viewsxrayspecs

Good post. A few qualifying comments as some of the points you quote are arguably a little out of context.

Medicines shortages - this is not a new thing - we often have shortages/stock out in the UK as manufacturing and distribution is a global activity. Supplies into the UK will likely be impacted by additional border checks, at least until companies know how much longer they will need to allow for border checks and adjust their lead times accordingly. Most pharma companies have increased their UK held stocks of medicines - by around six additional months - to mitigate the impact. This will be a short term impact until the supply lines settle down and companies adjust their approach.

Airlifting essentials - I am presuming that this is a response to potential delays at the border. Which is real. It just means that supplies will arrive at airports rather than ports, It is not a humanitarian effort, simply changing how product arrives in the UK.

The bail out fund is to help companies adjust to any friction at the border and if currently available export markets dry up. The government have for many years supported business, it is why the car manufacturing industry has such a footprint here. It is arguably a variation on a theme.

A no deal BREXIT will be disruptive, some of it will be transient as everyone gets used to the new rules of the game. The long term impact - positive and negative - is harder to ascertain.
[Post edited 11 Aug 2019 9:40]
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No deal Brexit on 09:51 - Aug 11 with 7043 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 09:37 - Aug 11 by xrayspecs

Good post. A few qualifying comments as some of the points you quote are arguably a little out of context.

Medicines shortages - this is not a new thing - we often have shortages/stock out in the UK as manufacturing and distribution is a global activity. Supplies into the UK will likely be impacted by additional border checks, at least until companies know how much longer they will need to allow for border checks and adjust their lead times accordingly. Most pharma companies have increased their UK held stocks of medicines - by around six additional months - to mitigate the impact. This will be a short term impact until the supply lines settle down and companies adjust their approach.

Airlifting essentials - I am presuming that this is a response to potential delays at the border. Which is real. It just means that supplies will arrive at airports rather than ports, It is not a humanitarian effort, simply changing how product arrives in the UK.

The bail out fund is to help companies adjust to any friction at the border and if currently available export markets dry up. The government have for many years supported business, it is why the car manufacturing industry has such a footprint here. It is arguably a variation on a theme.

A no deal BREXIT will be disruptive, some of it will be transient as everyone gets used to the new rules of the game. The long term impact - positive and negative - is harder to ascertain.
[Post edited 11 Aug 2019 9:40]


We can't bring in anything like the quantities of food and medication by air as we can through the ports. So it's a contingency plan but one that still leaves us with lots of potential shortages.

I think your point about it just being a period of adjustment is somewhat underselling it.

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No deal Brexit on 10:03 - Aug 11 with 7014 viewsxrayspecs

No deal Brexit on 09:51 - Aug 11 by Herbivore

We can't bring in anything like the quantities of food and medication by air as we can through the ports. So it's a contingency plan but one that still leaves us with lots of potential shortages.

I think your point about it just being a period of adjustment is somewhat underselling it.


We already fly a lot of food into the UK, from all over the world. The issue will be perishables coming into the UK from Europe. Any long dated products will be fine, you can stock pile until the supply lines settle down.

Medicines will be fine to the extent that the majority are long-dated so again you stock pile initially, and adjust lead times as the process becomes clearer. There are some highly specialist products that need to ship quickly e.g. some gene therapies, that will be impacted. These tend to be for a very small number of patients and individual arrangements will be made to fast track these.

Have spent a lot of time over the last couple of years on supply chain planning for Brexit. As I said before, it will be disruptive but in the most part it will settles down once everyone get used to the new normal and can plan accordingly.
[Post edited 11 Aug 2019 10:04]
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No deal Brexit on 10:07 - Aug 11 with 6999 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

No deal Brexit on 09:15 - Aug 11 by Herbivore

The citizens need to take to the streets if the government continues down this path. There is no mandate for what they're pursuing.


.......to agitate for a negotiated deal so as not to ignore the referendum result?

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No deal Brexit on 10:08 - Aug 11 with 6996 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 10:03 - Aug 11 by xrayspecs

We already fly a lot of food into the UK, from all over the world. The issue will be perishables coming into the UK from Europe. Any long dated products will be fine, you can stock pile until the supply lines settle down.

Medicines will be fine to the extent that the majority are long-dated so again you stock pile initially, and adjust lead times as the process becomes clearer. There are some highly specialist products that need to ship quickly e.g. some gene therapies, that will be impacted. These tend to be for a very small number of patients and individual arrangements will be made to fast track these.

Have spent a lot of time over the last couple of years on supply chain planning for Brexit. As I said before, it will be disruptive but in the most part it will settles down once everyone get used to the new normal and can plan accordingly.
[Post edited 11 Aug 2019 10:04]


So the sunlit uplands are now stockpiling canned goods until things hopefully settle down? Excellent.

What can we look forward to after this period of stockpiling that will have made it all worthwhile? Economic forecasts, including those from the government, have us feeling the economic impact of a no deal Brexit 10 years plus from now.

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No deal Brexit on 10:08 - Aug 11 with 6994 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 10:07 - Aug 11 by BanksterDebtSlave

.......to agitate for a negotiated deal so as not to ignore the referendum result?


To agitate for whatever they see fit. Personally I'll be agitating for us to remain.

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No deal Brexit on 10:14 - Aug 11 with 6963 viewsxrayspecs

No deal Brexit on 10:08 - Aug 11 by Herbivore

So the sunlit uplands are now stockpiling canned goods until things hopefully settle down? Excellent.

What can we look forward to after this period of stockpiling that will have made it all worthwhile? Economic forecasts, including those from the government, have us feeling the economic impact of a no deal Brexit 10 years plus from now.


Everything settles down in time.
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No deal Brexit on 10:15 - Aug 11 with 6961 viewsbrogansnose

No deal Brexit on 10:07 - Aug 11 by BanksterDebtSlave

.......to agitate for a negotiated deal so as not to ignore the referendum result?


Oh Bankie.


I've got reservations about the EU but going down Leave road means you get into bed with some proper bstds who are going to right regally abuse you down the line. This Brexit schizzle is the thin end of the wedge for a bigger right wing agenda coming our way.
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No deal Brexit on 10:22 - Aug 11 with 6942 viewspointofblue

No deal Brexit on 10:07 - Aug 11 by BanksterDebtSlave

.......to agitate for a negotiated deal so as not to ignore the referendum result?


You can’t agitate for something without considering the sequences - we’re akin to a teenager wanting to drink a bottle of neat gin and throwing a tantrum because others are pointing out why it might be better to at least dilute it.

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No deal Brexit on 10:23 - Aug 11 with 6935 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 10:14 - Aug 11 by xrayspecs

Everything settles down in time.


Great, I feel fully reassured that it'll all be fine now.

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No deal Brexit on 10:37 - Aug 11 with 6902 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

No deal Brexit on 10:15 - Aug 11 by brogansnose

Oh Bankie.


I've got reservations about the EU but going down Leave road means you get into bed with some proper bstds who are going to right regally abuse you down the line. This Brexit schizzle is the thin end of the wedge for a bigger right wing agenda coming our way.


You're not wrong butterbean pie muncher.......unfortunately all this second referendum talk and failure of Parliament to seek a concensus position based on honouring the result has only served to entrench and harden the right!

As a slight aside, It's almost like just in time supply lines based on global trade are really fragile and don't really serve the best interests of people or planet.

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No deal Brexit on 10:50 - Aug 11 with 6877 viewsGuthrum

The only reason Johson's lot are in favour of No Deal is because they know that negotiating a deal with the EU and getting it past the headbangers and tribalists in the Commons is a monumentally difficult task, which they are too lazy (and scared of losing face) to even try.

There are others who want No Deal in order to capitalise upon deregulation and economic chaos, but they are only a troublesome minority.

Everybody else - including the majority of Brexiteers - realise it's stupid and dangerous.

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No deal Brexit on 10:50 - Aug 11 with 6871 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 10:37 - Aug 11 by BanksterDebtSlave

You're not wrong butterbean pie muncher.......unfortunately all this second referendum talk and failure of Parliament to seek a concensus position based on honouring the result has only served to entrench and harden the right!

As a slight aside, It's almost like just in time supply lines based on global trade are really fragile and don't really serve the best interests of people or planet.


That first paragraph is nonsense. The right were hardened and emboldened from the day after the referendum, hence ultimately it being the hard right that blocked the Withdrawal Agreement despite it representing a harder Brexit than many leave campaigners had campaigned for prior to the referendum.

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No deal Brexit on 10:51 - Aug 11 with 6864 viewsmidastouch


Any thoughts about Dennis Skinner's argument here back in 2016 (he has voted against every treaty) that the EU will eventually fail? Moreover, he forecast that when the community was enlarged from 12 to 27 nations that most of those countries from the ex Soviet bloc would turn out to be right wing. I think he had a fair point there.

I've always been a big fan of Tony Benn (was gutted when he died and was certainly moved watching this at the time: and as such I find his views on the Europe of interest too.




Most people on here seem pro Europe. Is anybody from that side of the divide prepared to concede at least though that Tony Benn and Dennis Skinner were right on some of their points, as made in the above vids? Or is everybody just too entrenched in their rigid in or out positions to consider giving any credence to what others have said of an opposing view? Things are never as black and white as we think. The country is sadly so polarised over Brexit, how are we meant to stitch it back to together again when nobody seems prepared to budge an inch either way?

As for the potential fall out of a no deal. In essence, fail to prepare, prepare to fail! May's government should of been preparing us for a no-deal from the day she took power. As she said all along, no deal is better than a bad deal but she failed to live up to those words.

How can you have any faith in either side when they repeatedly say one thing over and over again but then do the opposite, see here for example!


I've only got time for the honest ones like Skinner who is genuinely there to represent his constituents. The career politicians seem utterly incapable of getting us out of this mess!

Finally, some would argue that there is historical blueprint on how to negotiate with the EU, but May clearly ignored it.


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No deal Brexit on 10:57 - Aug 11 with 6821 viewsHerbivore

No deal Brexit on 10:51 - Aug 11 by midastouch


Any thoughts about Dennis Skinner's argument here back in 2016 (he has voted against every treaty) that the EU will eventually fail? Moreover, he forecast that when the community was enlarged from 12 to 27 nations that most of those countries from the ex Soviet bloc would turn out to be right wing. I think he had a fair point there.

I've always been a big fan of Tony Benn (was gutted when he died and was certainly moved watching this at the time: and as such I find his views on the Europe of interest too.




Most people on here seem pro Europe. Is anybody from that side of the divide prepared to concede at least though that Tony Benn and Dennis Skinner were right on some of their points, as made in the above vids? Or is everybody just too entrenched in their rigid in or out positions to consider giving any credence to what others have said of an opposing view? Things are never as black and white as we think. The country is sadly so polarised over Brexit, how are we meant to stitch it back to together again when nobody seems prepared to budge an inch either way?

As for the potential fall out of a no deal. In essence, fail to prepare, prepare to fail! May's government should of been preparing us for a no-deal from the day she took power. As she said all along, no deal is better than a bad deal but she failed to live up to those words.

How can you have any faith in either side when they repeatedly say one thing over and over again but then do the opposite, see here for example!


I've only got time for the honest ones like Skinner who is genuinely there to represent his constituents. The career politicians seem utterly incapable of getting us out of this mess!

Finally, some would argue that there is historical blueprint on how to negotiate with the EU, but May clearly ignored it.



Lots of YouTube clips there. Could you summarise for me why you think a no deal Brexit will benefit the UK and how those benefits outweigh the issues raised in my OP?

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