This week marked a year since Town's famous 6-0 hammering of Doncaster Rovers in the Championship last season, when Connor Wickham notched an impressive hat-trick. The win moved Ipswich on to 41 points from their first 30 games, igniting hopes of a late push for the play-offs.

Ultimately, it was not to be. From the remaining 16 games, Town only managed to put a further 20 points on the board, finishing in a disappointing 13th place.

So, it was interesting for me to read comments from Michael Chopra this week, suggesting that a late push for the play-offs would not be entirely out of the equation for Ipswich. Being the optimist I am, I was inevitably lured in by the notion and have already started dreaming.

But what would it require for us to finish in the top six this campaign? Well, one of the best ways to work it out is to look at what it has taken in the past for a team to finish sixth.

Nottingham Forest occupied the final play-off position last season with a total of 75 points – higher than it has been in a number of previous seasons.

Reaching that points total would be a tough task as it would require Ipswich (currently sitting on 37 points) to take no less than 38 points from the remaining 16 games. That is at a rate of almost 2.4 points per game – significantly better than the title winning form of Queens Park Rangers last season.

In real terms, however, that would basically require Ipswich to win almost 13 of their remaining games in a fixture list that still includes Cardiff, Southampton, Hull, Burnley and Middlesbrough, as well as many other tough games. Essentially, it would be a fool who bet on Ipswich reaching 75 points.

Maybe then, we should turn to the table this season and see if there is any chance of the bar being lowered somewhat.

It is Reading who currently occupy sixth place in the Championship on 51 points from their 30 games. That is at a rate of exactly 1.7 points per game. In turn, that points to them finishing on approximately 78 points if they were to continue at their current rate of point accumulation. Definitely out of the question for Ipswich, as it would require 14 wins from the remaining 16 to finish above them.

Finally then, we should look at what other recent seasons have required. In 2009/10, Swansea took sixth place with just 70 points – to obtain that, Town would need 11 wins from 16.

In 2008/09, Preston finished on 74 – just over 12 from 16 for Ipswich, then. In 2007-08, Watford, like Swansea two years ago, also achieved 70 points, while in 2006/07, Southampton managed the 75 that Forest got last year.

Therefore, it would seem, Ipswich would, at the absolute minimum, have to win between 10 and 12 of the 16 games that remain in the Championship this season.

Do I honestly believe that is attainable? Let's just say we are now building for next season.

Southamptonblue added 12:44 - Feb 17 A fair assessment, but it shows how just a couple of decent results can change the debate from "how will we avoid relegation?" to "will we make the play-offs?" Let's all hope that the success and the atmosphere of optimism continues for a while!
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Shaneo added 13:01 - Feb 17 On an un-related blog note, we havent had one from SE1Blue for quite a while, has any one checked on him since we were 4-1 up at west ham going into the 90th minute? I fear he may have feinted with excitement and not woken up!
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Fatboy added 13:01 - Feb 17 How different things would be if we could have back all those points we've thrown away in the last five minutes of games...
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Tractorted added 13:05 - Feb 17 If's But's what ifs . etc. The point is that we have turned the corner and it is vital to build on the spirit and confidence now apparent within the team. Let the moaners stop so that we can all enjoy the games. If we scrapped into the play-off positions great - it we finish 7th then hey , I would have taken that a mere month oago. Move on..
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irishtim added 13:31 - Feb 17 Lets hope its the start of a comeback & next season will be our year
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Pettitt10 added 13:49 - Feb 17 tbh, it would take a miracle, i will be happy with mid-table come seasons end
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afrodids added 14:06 - Feb 17 The last time we had any sort of similar run was in the 2004/05 season when over a period of 16 games between sept-dec we W9 D5 L2 = 32 points which would put us on 69 points coincidently it was the last season we won 4 on the bounce!!! so a win saturday and who knows!!! I was always told I was a bit of a dreamer lol COYB
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PhilTWTD added 14:49 - Feb 17 Shaneo He's OK, he emailed me the other day, just got stuff going on at the moment.
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carsey added 16:31 - Feb 17 I like your thinking although the reality is it ain't going to happen. Something you forgot to mention is out disastrous goal difference which in itself could cost us a place or 2 at the end of the campaign. 7 -1 v Peterborough & 5 - 2 v Southampton being the two results that hurt the most. Clegg Out
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IvorFeeling added 17:47 - Feb 17 First off getting to 50 has to be the first aim and then we will see. My bet is that we will get an average of around 1.2 -1.5pts per game which will put us between 58 & 61 points. Defensively we do not have any further cover at present and that is still a weakness and will cost us points.
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WalkyTalky added 20:36 - Feb 17 The championship to much a much harder division this time out, the bottom club beat Leeds in 9th, surprises are always on the cards. We need to win 12 ideally, however what we must not forget is we beat the team at the top 5-1, fluke or not, this surely will help the team push for that play off place, and who knows, we could well be watching a play off final come may, either way the club is improving, I think it's unfit to judge where they'll finish at this moment, a longer win run and the optimism will come.

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earlsgreenblue added 08:43 - Feb 19 Read this blog yesterday with some thoughts of wouldn't it be nice etc, but be realistic it can't happen etc etc. Today after that display you know I'm not so sure, the work rate was again fantastic, there appears to be a more galvanised ethos to the team, the realisation that hard work, together, for the team, type of spirit might prevail & there is no doubt some talent in the side. So what if in another couple of games we have another 6 points on the board? If we the fans get behind our team, talk the positive talk, I know it's Ipswich fans I hear you cry, but come on it just could make the difference. Try & get the the game cherry pickers to come every week, it's a pleasure to watch now, be part of the revival, if the numbers swell a couple of thou the players notice, another percent out of each & who knows? Call me optimistic, but I for one will be there, fingers crossed, lucky pants on, you just never know it might be our year!

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Sorry added 15:05 - Feb 19 at best we could talk about this when the winning run is 8 rather than 4. At the moment, it's still in the "no chance" category.
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BigginBlue added 16:29 - Feb 19 The most painful thing i see is that in the last 30 minutes of games; 2 points dropped against Blackpool, 3 points dropped against Leeds, 1 point dropped against Birmingham, 2 points dropped against leicester(their goal was on 69 so practically 30 away) 3 points dropped against watford, 3 points dropped against Reading, 2 points dropped against Cardiff, 2 points dropped against Hull 3 points dropped against Notts forest, This total number of points adding to 21 points thus meaning we would be on 61 points and currently leading the championship. All of this is we could see out the last 30 mins!?

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RegencyBlue added 21:15 - Feb 20 Our defensive weaknesses will cost us more points between now and the end of the season so its not going to happen! Jewell needs to finally sort out the right back, centre half(s), goalkeeper situation over the summer and then maybe in 2012/2013 we will finally break into the play-offs for the first time for far too long!
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airliner added 07:44 - Feb 21 Lets just forget the play offs they are a long way off just play to win each week and as a team and if it happens it happens.
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adamisablue added 15:58 - Feb 23 ok (and i know this is a massive what if) if we actaully made the playoffs, would it really be ideal for the club? right now, defensivly we are very weak (2 senoir cbs, 1 still learning senoir and 2 makeshift rb's) and a relitvly new core of a team. say we managed to fluke our way into the playoffs and with the momentum actually win. we would get hammered with the team we have now in the PL. remebr it took burly 5 years to build a team for 1 decent season in the PL. imagine what we could do with a solid defense and the attack force we have who know each other throughly. we need to build from the grass roots through the team and spend 2 (at least) seasons in the championship before becoming sustainable in the PL

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